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Brexit

Westminstenders: A fully functioning government?

960 replies

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2019 23:50

It's been a month since parliament voting on anything.

The staggering reality of May's premiership is that government has ceased to function. We are stuck not just on Brexit but every other issue, such is the weakness of May's authority.

It begs the question of how long this is tolerable by all sides of the Conservative Civil War?

May being unable to bring anything forward means no deal is probably as inevitable as if a hardliner was PM.

There was talk of May / Corbyn reaching a fudge to get a deal via the backdoor WAB (Withdrawal Agreement Implimentation Bill) as it was politically impossible for them to be seen doing a deal any other way. However news today is that despite pressure from the 1922 Committee to bring it forward, May has slapped just a one line whip on it, meaning it will go precisely no where.

The polling for the European elections is perhaps more favourable to Labour than they might have feared after last weeks local election disaster so the mutual interest for Corbyn to move forward in anyway has already gone. Seeing the Tories be humiliated at the ballot box is too much of a temptation.

The phrase about Shit Creek only gets more apt.

All that is happening is every member of the Tory Party is lining up to take part in a leadership contest. It's harder to think of a Tory who isn't considering standing. It's not just the likes of Johnson, Gove, Rudd and Hunt. It's also the likes of Johnny Mercer and Graham Brady queuing not so patiently.

And its getting harder to argue that May is better as PM than the possibility of a right right candidate, because of the paralysis. Though as Rudd rightly points out, such a PM who wanted to actively have no deal as a policy, would struggle to win a majority in the HoC for that all important Queens Speech vote - every bit as much as May. Unless they were to somehow decide they could abuse the power of the executive and ignore parliament - a feat May has repeatedly attempted but ultimately failed at.

All everything feels, is a massive sense of merely delaying the inevitable.

Remain? Hard to see how under any Tory. A Deal? Hard to see what it might be and how there will be a Parliamentary majority. A PV? Well that still has to get through parliament and needs to be arranged smartish. And might not resolve the Irish border issue if the vote goes 'the wrong way' A General Election? That still seems to be a distinct possibility. But with the seeming resurrection of the LDs that's one the Tories will be desperate to avoid. Not that Corbyn is likely to succeed either. And of course there is now the Spectre of the Turquoise Arrows lurking. The crushing of the purple pound notes feels a hollow and distinct success.

It feels like we are waiting for the political sky to fall in in some sort of never ending Brexit Purgotory.

The cataclysmic event will occur at some point. It has to. But for now, it feels that there is nothing but waiting and waiting to be done.

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Thread gallery
39
RedToothBrush · 11/05/2019 21:13

The Times reporting that many on the rich list fear Corbyn more than they fear Brexit.

Westminstenders: A fully functioning government?
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RedToothBrush · 11/05/2019 21:14

Paul Brand @paulbranditv
🔥@GavinWilliamson tells tomorrow's Mail on Sunday that when it comes to talks with Labour, "The Prime Minister needs to understand that she now is seen by many in the Conservative Party as negotiating with the enemy." 🔥

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woman19 · 11/05/2019 21:16

Does anyone know where's the SNP on that Westminster voting intention?

I'm confused about that 34% bp prediction, is it from May 8th?

Britain Elects*@britainelects*
European Parliament voting intention:

BREX: 34% (+6)
LAB: 21% (-7)
LDEM: 12% (+5)
CON: 11% (-3)
GRN: 8% (+2)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
CHUK: 3% (-4)

via @OpiniumResearch, 08 May
Chgs. w/ 23 Apr

@britainelects
European Parliament voting intention:

BREX: 27% (-1)
LAB: 25% (-1)
LDEM: 14% (+3)
CON: 13% (-1)
GRN: 8% (+2)
CHUK: 6% (-2)
UKIP: 3% (+1)

via @ComRes, 09 May
Chgs. w/ 07 May

RedToothBrush · 11/05/2019 21:17

Britain elects @britainelects
European Parliament voting intention:

BREX: 27% (-1)
LAB: 25% (-1)
LDEM: 14% (+3)
CON: 13% (-1)
GRN: 8% (+2)
CHUK: 6% (-2)
UKIP: 3% (+1)

via @ComRes, 09 May
Chgs. w/ 07 May

Compare with the other poll out tonight:

BREX: 34% (+6)
LAB: 21% (-7)
LDEM: 12% (+5)
CON: 11% (-3)
GRN: 8% (+2)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
CHUK: 3% (-4)

via @OpiniumResearch, 08 May
Chgs. w/ 23 Apr

There's HUGE differences in there.

Some pollsters are going to be left with egg on face. Someone is way off the mark.

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RedToothBrush · 11/05/2019 21:20

Someone has chucked his toys.

Westminstenders: A fully functioning government?
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woman19 · 11/05/2019 21:22

The Times reporting that many on the rich list fear Corbyn more than they fear Brexit
Bears, their toilet habits and Woods,

Someone is way off the mark
Isn't there a % of voters who think bp is against brexit?

These polls must be getting more and more difficult to conduct accurately.

Despite the dominance of Brexit as an issue, many voters do not know where each party stands on it - 36% were not aware of the Conservative stance and 38% were not aware of Labour's

news.sky.com/story/nigel-farages-brexit-party-polling-higher-than-labour-and-tories-combined-before-eu-elections-11717553

Peregrina · 11/05/2019 21:25

Yes, well May went into the last election expecting a 100 seat majority. Then revised downwards to 60 seats. I don't remember now if anyone predicted a hung Parliament; if so, it would only have been YouGov on the eve of the poll.

But if the ex Tory large donors are going to Brexit then the Tory party must split soon. I wonder how it will go? Will they be begging the LibDems to let them join? The LibDems remember still are a hybrid of old Liberals and SDP types. Once Blair got in a lot of the SDP went back to the Labour fold, but by no means all. Where would May put herself? I can't see her throwing in her lot with Farage - I do think she has got higher standards than that (but could always be mistaken.)

However, once the large donors start giving money to Brexit, they are going to expect to see some results. At the moment, I can't see Farage delivering that and as we saw up thread, some Brexit candidates have begun to realise that they are going to have to work to say what they want.

RedToothBrush · 11/05/2019 21:26

The Telegraph pay walled article says that their polling shows Tories lose over 130 seats, inc Rudd and Johnson.

That means the following scenario is possible:

Johnson wins a tory election contest, but is unable to get a majority in the Commons, a GE is forced as a result and then he loses his seat. So they have to have another leadership contest.

It would also mean Jeremy Corbyn as PM. Who only has a minority government so can't force Brexit either, other than through accidental Brexit. But he also doesn't have a majority to revoke.

What a fine old pickle that would be.

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woman19 · 11/05/2019 21:33

@JohnRentoul
Replying to @britainelects @ComRes
Run that “Canadian style collapse couldn’t happen here” by me again

Peregrina · 11/05/2019 21:41

Rudd could certainly lose her seat - her majority is very slender. If the tide really goes out for the Tories then yes, nearly all of them with majorities of less than 10,000 could be sweating buckets on results night and those like Johnson would almost certainly lose.

Was the scale of last week's losses predicted? It however, is only a very rough guide - people do behave differently in General Elections.

I find it hard to feel sorry for Theresa May - if she had stuck to the words she said on the steps of 10 Downing Street when she took office and really tried to reach out the the just about managing, I think we would have been in a very different place now. Instead it was appease the right wing, the xenophobes, the racists, and they won't be appeased and have now turned on her.

I wonder if how I am feeling now, a quiet feeling of dread about the future is how the citizens of E Europe felt immediately post war, when the Iron Curtain came down, and they wondered when would it be raised again.

Peregrina · 11/05/2019 21:43

Johnson wins a tory election contest....

Are you talking about currently before a GE? I don't think either Labour or Conservative want a GE right now!

Clavinova · 11/05/2019 21:54

OublietteBravo
Caroline Lucas isn’t a party leader though (she has been in the past, but isn’t currently).

I confess - I had no idea that Caroline Lucas had stepped down from co-leadership of the Green Party last year (Sept) - perhaps Sian Berry has had an invitation to appear on QT but she declined!

mathanxiety
(I didn't think Anna Soubry had anything new to say this week - very poor effort.)

If what Soubry has been saying all along is completely correct then there is no need to come up with new material.

I thought that was the whole rationale behind Change UK - offering something different to the existing parties - a fresh approach?

TokyoSushi · 11/05/2019 22:56

Late PMK

Icantreachthepretzels · 11/05/2019 23:16

I thought that was the whole rationale behind Change UK - offering something different to the existing parties - a fresh approach?

Disingenuous claptrap - don't waste our time. There is a difference between a party emerging because they want to see the way politics is run changed (what change UK and Anna Soubry stand for) and expecting a politician to say something different every week because you are bored of what they are saying (the shit you just made up).

It is perfectly possible to want to change the face of politics - and how it is done - and to stick to the facts, which don't change, at the same time. In fact, one could argue that honesty and dogged determination for the truth would be just about the biggest sea-change politics had ever faced. Anyone with two brain cells to rub together would know that.

woodpigeons · 11/05/2019 23:18

This is not my opinion but just asking what others, who are better informed, think.

Could the Brexit party actually form a valid government?
and
If everything crashes down could the queen take charge and appoint a coalition of remainers ?

www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-deal-vote-no-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-queen-remain-mps-new-coalition-government-a8655586.html

mathanxiety · 11/05/2019 23:48

...if she had stuck to the words she said on the steps of 10 Downing Street when she took office and really tried to reach out the the just about managing, I think we would have been in a very different place now. Instead it was appease the right wing, the xenophobes, the racists, and they won't be appeased and have now turned on her.

I don't think she had anyone in mind other than those who believe that immigrants are the root of all their problems, tbf. Creating a hostile environment for immigrants and foreign students and flirting with the right was exactly what she meant when she spoke of being on their side.

The 'just about managing' is the British equivalent of Nixon's 'silent majority'. The appeal is the same - it courts people who see themselves as being menaced.

Peregrina · 12/05/2019 07:13

Could the Queen help form a Goverment? What if the worst happened and she passed away and her petulant and inexperienced son took over?

1tisILeClerc · 12/05/2019 08:02

I wonder what turn of phrase HRH the Queen has in her head when she is thinking about the UK governance, of all sides?

NoWordForFluffy · 12/05/2019 08:22

'What a shower of shit', or something similar, I imagine! I can't believe it's anything polite.

I imagine she wishes she could go against all conventions and just bang their bloody heads together!

1tisILeClerc · 12/05/2019 08:33

If you think of the 'daring do' of the likes of Walter Raleigh, Captain Cook and so many others bringing back fabulous wealth and claiming new lands for the British Crown (leave the morality bit out for now), maybe the Tory party are a bit of a disappointment, having successfully fucked up 500? years of dominance.
It's going to take more than viagra to fix it!

prettybird · 12/05/2019 08:54

"A plague on all your houses" is probably one of her more repeatable thoughts Wink

GaspodeWonderCat · 12/05/2019 08:56

@woodpigeon Could the Brexit party actually form a valid government?

If they won enough seats in a GE then yes they could form a government. Given their leaders propensity for skiving off, its use/validity/ability would be in serious doubt. No experience in Parliament, no ministerial experience, would not listen to advice from civil servants ... chaos would ensue (see UKIP in local govt for form).

If everything crashes down could the queen take charge and appoint a coalition of remainers? Theoretically yes (as the government is in her name). In reality she would fend them off with a royal barge pole and tell them to sort their shit out and come back to the Palace once done.

@1tisILeClerc It is HM the Queen not HRH (pedantic sniff).

RedToothBrush · 12/05/2019 09:05

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/philip-may-theresa-mays-rock-crumbles-8ml2fkp6c
Philip May: Theresa May’s ‘rock’ crumbles
Even the PM’s husband now believes it is time she made a dignified exit rather than battle it out, write Tim Shipman and Caroline Wheeler

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RedToothBrush · 12/05/2019 09:08

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/11/farage-rees-mogg-claire-fox-britain-is-seduced-by-politicians-who-are-characters?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&__twitter_impression=true
Farage, Rees-Mogg, Claire Fox... Britain is seduced by politicians who are ‘characters’

If you want to deceive the French public, you pose as an intellectual. In England, you pose as a character. Like a criminal on a witness protection programme, the ham actor who plays upper-class roles avoids the accountability that prevents democratic life degenerating into the feast of fools we see around us.

Brexit has as much been a failure of British journalism as British politics. The basic questions have not been asked. You promised the electorate a trade deal with the EU should be the easiest in history. You said the German car industry would force Merkel to capitulate. Are you a fool or a liar or both?

When the honourable exceptions have been listed, the British media have not held politicians to account or followed stories regardless of the consequences. Largely liberal broadcasters have so overcompensated they’ve forgotten why they went into journalism in the first place.

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1tisILeClerc · 12/05/2019 09:18

GaspodeWonderCat
Of course, the coffee hadn't got into my system when I was writing it.
I had actually been musing over whether the ceremonial sword used for knighthoods is actually sharp and whether Her Majesty might suddenly develop a rather nasty and severe 'twitch'/ muscle spasm.