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Brexit

Westminstenders: A fully functioning government?

960 replies

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2019 23:50

It's been a month since parliament voting on anything.

The staggering reality of May's premiership is that government has ceased to function. We are stuck not just on Brexit but every other issue, such is the weakness of May's authority.

It begs the question of how long this is tolerable by all sides of the Conservative Civil War?

May being unable to bring anything forward means no deal is probably as inevitable as if a hardliner was PM.

There was talk of May / Corbyn reaching a fudge to get a deal via the backdoor WAB (Withdrawal Agreement Implimentation Bill) as it was politically impossible for them to be seen doing a deal any other way. However news today is that despite pressure from the 1922 Committee to bring it forward, May has slapped just a one line whip on it, meaning it will go precisely no where.

The polling for the European elections is perhaps more favourable to Labour than they might have feared after last weeks local election disaster so the mutual interest for Corbyn to move forward in anyway has already gone. Seeing the Tories be humiliated at the ballot box is too much of a temptation.

The phrase about Shit Creek only gets more apt.

All that is happening is every member of the Tory Party is lining up to take part in a leadership contest. It's harder to think of a Tory who isn't considering standing. It's not just the likes of Johnson, Gove, Rudd and Hunt. It's also the likes of Johnny Mercer and Graham Brady queuing not so patiently.

And its getting harder to argue that May is better as PM than the possibility of a right right candidate, because of the paralysis. Though as Rudd rightly points out, such a PM who wanted to actively have no deal as a policy, would struggle to win a majority in the HoC for that all important Queens Speech vote - every bit as much as May. Unless they were to somehow decide they could abuse the power of the executive and ignore parliament - a feat May has repeatedly attempted but ultimately failed at.

All everything feels, is a massive sense of merely delaying the inevitable.

Remain? Hard to see how under any Tory. A Deal? Hard to see what it might be and how there will be a Parliamentary majority. A PV? Well that still has to get through parliament and needs to be arranged smartish. And might not resolve the Irish border issue if the vote goes 'the wrong way' A General Election? That still seems to be a distinct possibility. But with the seeming resurrection of the LDs that's one the Tories will be desperate to avoid. Not that Corbyn is likely to succeed either. And of course there is now the Spectre of the Turquoise Arrows lurking. The crushing of the purple pound notes feels a hollow and distinct success.

It feels like we are waiting for the political sky to fall in in some sort of never ending Brexit Purgotory.

The cataclysmic event will occur at some point. It has to. But for now, it feels that there is nothing but waiting and waiting to be done.

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1tisILeClerc · 13/05/2019 08:32

{A substantial number of voters prefer an authoritarian who talks simplistic shite and promises them unicorns}
I can help you summarise this.....Farage.

MrPan · 13/05/2019 08:37

I think we all knew the GBP isn't great at all, and a large proportion are pretty okay with being told what to do, generally don't like brown/black-skinned people, have a really misplaced sense of their country's worth in the world, have never ever been left-leaning, and are not, well.......evolved.
Hence Brexit scratching a surface and all of this seeps out.

Cheery! Grin

Peregrina · 13/05/2019 09:12

So if Brexit replaces the Tories - which party does Boris Johnson want to lead?

I still think that Brexit is a one man band - hence the exposure of Farage. Once he's gone, then like UKIP, it will go phut.

1tisILeClerc · 13/05/2019 09:24

Unless it is simply not getting 'publicised' in any of the news it is strange that currently NO ONE has a clear plan in the UK.
Yes you have the 'silly phutters' declaring they want out of the EU, but there is nothing following that, like no goal to aim for other than being out.
It's a bit like going out of your house in your underwear on a cold dark night and then hearing the door click locked shut behind you.

woman19 · 13/05/2019 09:28

Wish Alex wasn't gay too. Wink

@sturdyAlex
Negativity is Remain’s enemy. An entire nation repeating “omg Farage will smash it” before a single vote is cast, like a destructive mantra. Farage has never prevailed in a contest with over 40% turnout. This negativity, this self-inflicted vote supression, is his win zone. 1/2

Think on the figures: Farage won 2014 Euro Election with HALF the votes Remain parties combined got in the previous General Election; TWO THIRDS of the number of signatures on the revoke petition. If you want to defeat him, be positive and motivate those around you to vote. 2/2

MrPan
What you just described is the polar opposite to London: Multi cultural wealth and culture creator for the country for half a millenia. Brexit seeks to kill the golden goose of London. Like the blitz and plague, it won't. Smile

it will go phut
Trouble with identitarian politics is, they forget that the only route to political longevity is collective organisation.

Mistigri · 13/05/2019 09:31

I'm an Alex fan too (though not like that ... beards do nothing for me).

I think he's right. I think Farage has a hard ceiling and I think he's peaked too soon.

MrPan · 13/05/2019 09:31

Sounds like a London-centric view of London. From a Londoner woman.....

Peregrina · 13/05/2019 09:32

Remainers don't really need a clear plan yet, except Revoke A50. Once they have done that they will then have to do a lot of work to rebuild trust with the rest of the EU.

I suppose Brexit might argue the same way just get the UK out of the EU, but then they have to start amending rafts of laws and implementing new trade deals. Otherwise, things will just stop.

With Revoke, as far as I can see, nothing stops, all the deals are still in place. And we can still do trade deals with China and the USA, because Germany manages, so it must be possible. The vultures might be delayed moving in on the carcass of the NHS but most of us would welcome that.

woman19 · 13/05/2019 09:45

Farage has a hard ceiling and I think he's peaked too soon
There's a joke in there somewhere, but it's a bit rude. Grin

MrPan · 13/05/2019 09:53

Lordy woman - I'm too young for this thread!!

RedToothBrush · 13/05/2019 10:17

James Kanagasooriam @JamesKanag
Small thread on the local elections. Tories+Labour are in big trouble – the former more than the latter. The Tory is becoming more Leavey – the Tories have lost proportionately more Remainer voters than leave ones since 2015 but is not especially popular among either group (1/5)
The Conservative vote is getting less affluent, and strikingly so. Its demographic base is fundamentally changing in a way that Labour’s base has not over 2015-19. Labour's base has undergone demographic change over much longer period of 20-25 years (2/5)
Local elections in 2019 show a huge amount of random variation which isn’t present when locals take place in General Election years (eg 2015) – I think for this reason the Lib Dem results flattered them. (3/5)
Neither the upcoming Euro elections (completely different voting patterns) or these local elections give an accurate picture of what is going on - one set of elections didn't have the Brexit Party standing. God knows what Change UK are up to (4/5)

Westminstenders: A fully functioning government?
Westminstenders: A fully functioning government?
Westminstenders: A fully functioning government?
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RedToothBrush · 13/05/2019 10:18

Looking at the Projected National Vote Share since 1980, this election is a continued reflection of the extreme political volatility present since 2012. Key question over when will this volatility end? Not any time soon. Thanks to @britainelects for ward level results (5/5)

Westminstenders: A fully functioning government?
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RedToothBrush · 13/05/2019 10:19

For Westminster voting intention

The latest YouGov/Times voting intention survey sees the vote share for the two main parties slump to 24% each since last week's results. Their combined 48% is the lowest two-party share of the vote YouGov has ever recorded.

The Brexit Party is in third place on 18% (from 15% last week), while the Liberal Democrats follow their strong showing at the local elections with a 16% vote intention share - their highest since July 2010. Prior to the local elections they had been on 13%.

Voting intention for smaller parties stands at 7% for the Greens (from 5%), 2% for Change UK (from 3%) and 2% for UKIP (unchanged). Votes for all other parties stand at 6% (from 5%).

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1tisILeClerc · 13/05/2019 10:23

Looks like time to strap yourself to a lemming and look for a cliff.

DGRossetti · 13/05/2019 10:27

I never tire of repeating the fact that the one thing that would offset Brexit is a destruction of the Tory party.

Not for anyone in this thread. But someone, somewhere is hoovering up keywords and context, and I like the idea of some Tory apparatchik seeing the phrase "Tory destruction" and "Brexit" being highlighted time after time as they run their AI goodness over it.

And when I say "they", I mean "their rich backers".

Littlespaces · 13/05/2019 10:34

Farage lies exposed in this article.

www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/heres-truth-behind-nigel-farages-2859967

OhYouBadBadKitten · 13/05/2019 10:35

dh received a Brexit party leaflet.
Have any women on here received one?

OublietteBravo · 13/05/2019 10:42

No. But one of my friends has (she posted the image on FB and commented on how outraged she was at being targeted - especially as her partner had received a LibDem one instead).

TheNorthWestPawsage · 13/05/2019 10:51

I have received a Brexshit party pack of lies leaflet addressed to me. But that may be because DH isn’t yet on latest electoral roll. He’s US citizen and only just got his UK citizenship. (Great timing re the political leadership we now have either side of the Atlantic Hmm)
I also got a LibDem one.

Littlespaces · 13/05/2019 10:55

dh received a Brexit party leaflet.
Have any women on here received one?

Yes me! My family found it entertaining.

Iambuffy · 13/05/2019 11:12

Had a lib dem leaflet and letter today!

Clavinova · 13/05/2019 11:16

@sturdyAlex
Just popping in quickly to point out that Alex Andreou (@sturdyAlex) was the one tweeting this nonsense about the People's Vote march in March:

"Police estimate TWO MILLION marched today,"

Crowd experts said 400,000 people marched not 2m. At least a dozen people challenged Andreou on twitter, including those who said they voted Remain + another journalist - but still he persisted:

"This is the unofficial estimate to the organisers cross-checked with stewards and aerial grid calculations."

"the Organisers said it was “more than 1m” earlier in the day.They will always lowball to avoid this sort of conversation.Mummy sources tell me the unofficial police number given to them was 2m."

"This is their unofficial estimate to the organisers and stewards reported from multiple inside sources." etc. etc. - Nonsense.

Alex Andreou is a Greek national of course, although he's lived in the UK for many years - he's written an article about why he hasn't applied for British citizenship.

Farage lies exposed in this article.

I thought the article was a bit lame with very little relevance to the EU elections.The Andrew Marr interview was great publicity for Farage - perfect example of the establishment not listening and I agree with what Farage said about climate change policies in the interview - the 'climate change denier' label (for anyone) has been overused - it's getting some stick on the radio in the South East - sensible policies, not extreme policies will win votes.

I still intend to vote for the Brexit Party in the EU elections, although it's highly unlikely I would vote for them in a general election.

TokyoSushi · 13/05/2019 11:18

Received my 'appointment as a polling clerk' letter today, interested to see how that goes.

Epanoui · 13/05/2019 11:21

I have had leaflets from Labour, Lib Dem and the Brexit idiots. DH has not had a single one!

Clavinova · 13/05/2019 11:24

we need Led By Donkeys ... Where are they?

Their Crowding page says this;

"We did it."
"On 16th April 2019 we successfully raised £397,155 with 13314 supporters in 87 days"

They haven't been seen since - I hope they didn't run off with the money. Wink