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Brexit

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

981 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 18:18

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

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prettybird · 04/05/2019 12:36

We discovered and loved Booths when we were staying in Preston for some cycling races that ds was racing in. When he competed in the same event again the following year, we knew where to go for provisions!

NoWordForFluffy · 04/05/2019 12:44

Windermere has my very favourite shop combination on one site: Booths and Lakeland.

The kids call Booths 'fancy Booths'! Grin

@Prettybird, they do delivery at Christmas, if that floats your boat?!

1tisILeClerc · 04/05/2019 12:44

NoWordForFluffy
I'm a 'child of the universe' !
AKA 'all over the place'.
I would be chilled over here if it wasn't for Brexit anxiety.

ContinuityError · 04/05/2019 12:58

DH is currently commuting to Norway for work - top of the list of things to bring over for his UK colleagues is extra mature cheddar. Guess there is only so much brown cheese and Jarlsberg you can take.

On another note, I’ve written again to my MP on the back of the local elections (she is Tory but leans to Remain), pointing out that losing 42% of your Tory councillors and control of the council in what should be safe Tory country (we are just along from PP’s Arun area) is not telling TM that we want to get on with Brexit.

prettybird · 04/05/2019 13:10

I love Jarlsberg misses the point Grin

Peregrina · 04/05/2019 13:16

It could be telling politicians that we are sick to death of Brexit, but that cuts both ways - Remainers want it stopped, Leavers want the sunlit uplands to be brought on.

Littlespaces · 04/05/2019 13:18

A Customs Union doesn't solve the back stop does it?

The ERG will see it as the worst of worlds.
The DUP will hate it.
Will pro EU Tory & Labour MPs rebel?

TatianaLarina · 04/05/2019 14:04

Jarlsberg is great.

Sostenueto · 04/05/2019 14:29

Princess Eugenie is having a baby ( fergies daughter) and we have imminent arrival of Megan's baby. More over privileged hanger ons who will never ever know what it is to do without.

Icantreachthepretzels · 04/05/2019 14:52

Would the world be a better place if these two babies suffered hardships? Would that solve anything at all? They can't help the family they are born into - anymore than anyone else can. Two women are having much wanted babies whom they will love and look after. Fair enough to not be interested (I'm not) but absolutely no reason to be so mean spirited about people who haven't even been born yet.

floraloctopus · 04/05/2019 14:56

Has Eugenie officially announced her pregnancy? I thought she had just hinted at it?

I also love Jarlsberg.

bellinisurge · 04/05/2019 15:40

Booths makes Waitrose look like Nisa

floraloctopus · 04/05/2019 15:46

Booths makes Waitrose look like Nisa

^ This Grin

NoWordForFluffy · 04/05/2019 15:52

Booths makes Waitrose look like Nisa

Which is why we only have occasional trips there!

bellinisurge · 04/05/2019 15:55

I have an annual Christmas trip. They have a hardcover Christmas catalogue. A colleague gets one for me and I love drooling over it.😂😂

NoWordForFluffy · 04/05/2019 15:56

My kids keep those books. We have the last 3, I think. 😂🎅🏻

We always get a salad selection they do, plus some a shit tonne of cheese at Christmas.

1tisILeClerc · 04/05/2019 17:17

This seems to be turning into the 'Booths fan club'. I can think of worse things mind you!

Peregrina · 04/05/2019 17:20

I wish that Booth's would expand to the south.

1tisILeClerc · 04/05/2019 17:25

There have to be some perks to living beyond the world where time Westminster forgot.

PunkRockHippy · 04/05/2019 17:26

I lurk on these threads as I find them informative - can anyone explain exactly what the PNS (projected national share) the BBC have calculated means? It had Labour & conservative tied at 28% each. Does that mean a projected 28% of the votes nationally, or a projected 28% of the HoC seats in a theoretical GE? The latter being much more exciting, obviously.

RedToothBrush · 04/05/2019 17:28

I missed the last Booths Christmas catalogue. I was gutted.

#fullypaidupboothsfanclubmemberhere

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Littlespaces · 04/05/2019 17:37

PunkRock This article implies that PNS is a measure of how parties are doing generally, so it is quite a good guide rather than an exact projection of national share or seats in HoC.

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/measures-that-estimate-how-local-election-results-translate-into-general-support-do-not-always-track-opinion-polls-closely/

Mistigri · 04/05/2019 17:38

Punkrock I think it just means the vote share in the local elections. It's a very low share for both but whether it has any longer term implications we don't really know yet.

It feels like a major upheaval in British party politics is coming. It's unlikely to be on the scale of the French upheaval two years ago (when the incumbent party and the main opposition blew themselves up in spectacular fashion) but you never know!

NoWordForFluffy · 04/05/2019 17:54

I missed the last Booths Christmas catalogue. I was gutted.

Bloody hell, Red, I'd be in mourning (and disowned by the DC!) if that happened! I'm sad and popped to my nearest store on the day it was released. 😂

BigChocFrenzy · 04/05/2019 17:58

I don't think the PNS is very meaningful, given that neither BREX nor CHuK stood in the locals,
but they will or the EP and the GE