Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

[RedToothBrush]

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

TBH, the papers and parties can put whatever spun they like on it. It's the membership and MPs who will be looking at the result and going "oh shit". These are the people that are:

A) Politically engaged,
B) Can count (well, maybe not in Grayling's case) and
C) Can actually put pressure on the party exec for change.

I think next week is going to be torrid one for both Labour and Conservative. I am also going to stick my neck out and say there will be no signed deal before the EU elections. Even if the leaders can come to an agreement, they have lost their respective parties.

1TisILeClerk I agree. I’d also think that Parliament should meet in each of the UK countries on a rotation basis with MPs having their offices in their own areas. Perhaps that might help to connect the areas that feel disassociated right now. Not sure how feasible it is, though!

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/04/site-claiming-to-help-eu-citizens-register-to-vote-is-shut-down

Just saw this article. If you’ve registered to vote using the site:
Registertovote.eu

You should probably fill in your details again in the government site just to be sure:

www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

I agree with this. The samples are so tiny in comparison to the population eligible to vote that I simply cannot see how they can be representative.

You theoretically only need about 1000 people, but the problem at the moment is how do you construct your sample to be representative of the EP electorate?

Assumptions about turnout are going to be key. In the local elections, turnout appears to have been noticeably higher in remain areas than in northern Leave areas.

Thursday wasn't an opinion poll. Thursday was people turning out, to vote, or putting a postal vote in the post box.

What don't the two major parties get? A million plus descended on London a few weeks ago, 6 million plus signed an anti Brexit petition and now the two major parties, the Tories most spectacularly have received a drubbing in the polls. What more do we have to do?

In recent years polls have been unreliable at best.

I can't see how you can accurately gauge the correct demographics of those who will vote. Politics is up in the air at the moment, so accurately anticipating anything is probably more challenging than at any other time in recent history.

In other news, we're now well-stocked up with cheese from Booths, so life is good! 🧀

Thank you Pretzels

@Peregrina, there's none so deaf as those who do not want to hear. So we actually can't do anything to influence those who are determined to ignore our message. We need to work out who we can influence and work on them.

It seems the HoC/cabinet/many public are being willfully obtuse and refusing to actually address Brexit at all.
What the rest of the EU think of this, goodness only knows.
The whole of the UK is mentally joining Corbyn in his potting shed.

{In other news, we're now well-stocked up with cheese from Booths, so life is good!}
, which, considering I live in the land of cheese might seem odd!

Apologies if this has been posted already - long term lurker but I haven’t been able to keep up with the whole thread.

The YouGov poll that put the Bre*it Party ahead with a 28% share of the vote for the EU elections excludes don’t knows. These stand at 20% of those surveyed and as many remain voters don’t know which party to vote for or were waiting for labour to make up their mind I would have thought these are more heavily remain voters. With the don’t knows included the B Party vote is 18%

d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/gx95u8qvbi/HopeNotHate_190426_EUElections_bpc_w.pdf

I think EP might be more pro-remain than Lab/Con think - looking at the huge swings in Leave areas, we can only assume that there is a strong movement there and people are talking politics. Maybe they were embarrassed to find their area seen as racist? Maybe they had low turn outs in the ref? Who knows, but now the tide has turned publicly and people will be feeling emboldened to talk about remain in public. The opposite opinion has fresh air in areas there was assumed to be no hope .

Oh and classic Fb today - meathead/England flag profile on local page "We need to turn out in force and show them they can't control up in the Euro Elections" (1 like). Me "How are they trying to control you? By letting you vote? (22 likes).

Talking of numbers needed for opinion polls - at the Counts the parties do quick samples at the verification stage (as the ballot papers are turned up and counted to see if the total papers agree with the numbers issued) by scribbling down quick 5 bar gates of the numbers or similar tallying systems. It's crude and it's not possible to get a proper sample but even so, by the time the verification was finished in the small hours of Friday morning, we could tell who was likely to have won, and even guess at the number of seats.

At the General Election it was more pronounced - Immediately the boxes were opened it was evident that the UKIP vote had collapsed, Labour, in a non-Labour area were doing OK and that it would be neck and neck between Tory and LibDem - which was exactly how it turned out.

I honestly don't know what to make of Farage and his Brexit party - he's being talked up as usual but when it comes down to it, like UKIP it is essentially only Farage.

I also would like to come up with another way to show the remain movement is stronger. I was considering writing to the state broadcaster or even stopping my TV Licence, but unless there is a 'movement' it won't make a difference. I do feel they are being pressured by Gibbs and the revelation they lost 25% of their income from Tories giving OAP's free Licence Fees shows how vulnerable they are. I do think it's tipped into very sinister territory over the last few years though. It's one thing loving their dramas but when you can't rely on their news sources...

Actually (sorry, thinking aloud here) why don't we petition for the news to be separated within the licence fee? I'd pay for the entertainment (iplayer) but I don't watch the news any more. That would send a better message about what is wrong. Of course the irony is they don't need advertisements for funding so that they can be "impartial" but it's clearly not the case any more.

From what I can remember of my days telling/observing at elections, what Peregrina describes is correct.

The difference between a pre-vote poll and actually using cast votes is just that. So I'd say the small sample of votes will, by default, be more accurate than an online poll beforehand.

Following on from Brexitisshit's post

"@ElectoralCommUK has disavowed the 3rd party app for increasing EU citizen registration An extension of the deadline is critical There's an Early Day Motion edm.parliament.uk/early-day-motion/52886/voting-rights-of-eu-citizens-in-european-elections … asking for such an extension Please - Ask your MP to sign it"

edm.parliament.uk/early-day-motion/52886/voting-rights-of-eu-citizens-in-european-elections

The Brexit Party candidates need public scrutiny. If Led By Donkeys come back, they can publicise the dubious sayings of Farage, but who are all these other candidates? What is their past, and their social media presence? I really don't want to be represented again by the kind of people who can actually get into a fight in the EU Parliament. It's shameful.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-steven-woolfe-attack-collapse-leadership-favourite-eu-parliament-nigel-farage-live-updates-a7348026.html

This 'the public just want us to get on with it' is like brainwashing. Perhaps TM thinks if she says it enough, a voter could start to believe that they themselves do 'want the Tories to get on with it'. Or, that everyone else thinks that and they are on their own in doubting it.

More on the turqoise (good point prettybird) party's attacks on women.

I read that Jess Phillips had to have a 'safe' room installed at her contituency offices. After they assassinated Jo Cox.

@jessphillips
I'm normally pretty tough, I take the slings and arrows I might just be tired but when asked to comment on this I was really upset. What do women have to do to end this shit, I'm so tired of people legitimising this stuff. www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/jess-phillips-carl-benjamin-new-rape-comments?utm_source=dynamic&utm_campaign=bfsharetwitter … via @MarkDiStef

And here she is. Being brilliant. As usual.

I don’t understand why Labour doesn’t lean into the genuine assets that it has: it’s meant to be principled, outward facing, internationalist. These are the things that people want. I can’t understand why we can’t be much, much clearer
. - Jess Phillips
twitter.com/OxfordDiplomat/status/1124399432575979520

And another thing! In London, there are about 11 independent candidates (plus the Animal Welfare Party) standing; I hope it doesn't split the vote.

inews.co.uk/news/politics/european-elections-2019-candidates-mep-who-standing-eu-vote-full-list/

which, considering I live in the land of cheese might seem odd!

Ah, but it's different cheese! We have Sriracha cheddar, Garstang Blue, Cheshire white and Snowdonia Red Storm. And some oatcakes. 😋 🐷 🧀

NoWordForFluffy
I know, I used to shop in Booths.
I feel aggrieved to be paying megabucks for something like strong cheddar to make cheese sauce.
You are welcome to the oatcakes mind!

Are you a northerner then? Or an incomer like me? We love Booths, though it's too expensive for a weekly shop!

I'd struggle to pay an extortionate amount for strong cheddar too. But I bet your way of life is more chilled out than over here.