Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

[RedToothBrush]

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

I find it hard to see it as a people want Brexit vote too. Although BBC news have been saying that all day. It's really weird.

Are the MPs stupid enough to vote for a fudged deal though? It's still got to clear Parliament.

Would it pass?

What the actual fuck do voters have to do to make the government rethink....anything!

I'm actually really fucking angry tonight. It seems that there is literally nothing which will stop May and Corbyn trying to force Brexit through. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh.

Are the MPs stupid enough to vote for a fudged deal though?

Three quarters of the Tory Party. Yes.
Some Labour. Possibly.

So could I get this straight - two years ago the two major parties supported some form of Brexit and gained 80% of the vote:
neither party won - as shown by the hung Parliament we have had since then.
Two years later
Opposition loses at least 77 seats instead of gaining 100-200,
Incumbent governing minority party is thrashed, hammered, by losing 1200 seats not an opinion poll, but real voters turning out or chosing not to and somehow, this is not telling them that their policy of supporting Brexit is wrong, but it's not Brexit enough?

Then we get posters like Clavinova desperately trying to make excuses about low turnouts, when turnouts of 33% are now the norm in non GE years. Some turnouts in the LibDem winning areas have been substantially more than this, well into the 40% + range, although I haven't been able to find figures for this.

Not only did the seats get lost by both major parties, but the margins between the winning and losing candidates widened. In my own district elections, with two seats available in my ward, the winners took 1407 and 1372 votes with the Tories trailing on 689 and 629 and quite a good Independent candidate only managing 103. Contrast this with 2011, a non GE year, and figures (which are not an exact comparison because of ward boundary changes) show the two winning LibDems getting 861, and 860 votes, followed by the two Tories on 651 and 485 and Labour trailing with 341 i.e. 2019 has seen substantially greater margins for the winners. Without deeper analysis, it's impossible to say whether this is typical but I would not be surprised if this was the case.

And Leavers still tell us that people want Brexit. For any other issue it would tell people that what the two major parties want to serve up is not acceptable and needs a rethink. These results would give Theresa May the ideal reason to say that people don't want Brexit, the mandate has expired.

For those leavers like Clavinova who are still trying to promote the Leaver excuses - it was quite entertaining to look at some of the spoilt votes - some specifically wrote about Brexit against the Tory names, but many more expressed disgust with the whole slate on offer (some writing essays to that effect!)

I'm actually really fucking angry tonight. It seems that there is literally nothing which will stop May and Corbyn trying to force Brexit through.

It's the same as in 2017 when she lost her majority and came out and gave a victory speech and went on to pursue the hardest of hard brexits.

Democracy doesn't work if the people in power choose to ignore and misinterpret what the electorate are saying. And once they've gone down that path - I don't think anything short of a pulling-the-cobbles-up revolution is going to change anything.
We're just sliding into dictatorship.

Cue another Tory Government and more austerity.

At this rate it will be a LD-Green government. Now that would be funny.

What the actual fuck do voters have to do to make the government rethink....anything!

100% spoilt ballot papers?!

We're just sliding into dictatorship

I'm not so sure it's sliding, more rushing headlong?

The whole electoral system has facilitated the lies and false promises we have learnt to tolerate, the entitlement of politicians who believe they can do what they like and the erosion of the structures of civil society. Something was bound to happen - this is it, and no one can predict what will happen next.

248 councils now in

80% of voters chose parties with Brexit manifestos
LOST 1558 SEATS
libdem and green explicily anti Brexit
GAINED 894 SEATS
none of the above
GAINED 606 SEATS
HOW THICK are our politicians ??

At this rate it will be a LD-Green government. Now that would be funny.

It would and May and Corbyn, would go down as the principle architects of the destroyers of their parties - with a dishonorable mention for Cameron.

Some of it does remind me of the collapse of Communism in E Europe - in the end sufficient people have to either support you or at least not oppose you, and we are now virtually at the point where people don't support Labour or the Tories.

I add the caveat that we really don't know enough about all these Independents - are they nasty right wingers trying to hide under a label or moderate Tories and Labour who have had their fill, but still feel they have something to offer their local communities?

Or is it more, how thick do they think we are?!

Nobody with half a brain cell will believe the spin, so why bother doing it? I'm sick of politicians right now.

It doesn't matter if we believe the spin or not, there are enough people out there with less than 1/2 a brain cell who will.

I would say the EU elections may be a better test of people's opinions on Brexit.

I cannot see this ending well for Labour, do they really want to end up delivering the Tories Brexit for them?
I say this as a Lib dem voter, working with the Tories doesn't end well.

To put the losses in context - you also have to look at how many seats they do hold:

Conservative 3,562
Labour 2,023
Lib Dems 1,350
Independent 1,045
Green 265
Residents' 119
UKIP 31

I just emailed a big wodge of the shadow cabinet to explain in simple words that I changed my vote from labour to lib dem because I support remain - not as an elaborate double bluff to tell them to get on with brexit.
I told them to stop insulting our intelligence and to stop lying about what the results meant. Plus all the stuff I always say to them about enabling tory brexit leading to a loss of workers rights, for which Labour will never be forgiven.
I'm afraid I just ccd them all in to one email - because I'm getting fed up of having to email them to tell them the same obvious thing over and over - and take my time to address each email properly.
But if anyone else has got a few minutes spare - think about doing the same. Fill up their inboxes with the news that no - a vote for lib dem/ green was (surprisingly!) NOT a vote for getting on with brexit.

I'll do that over the weekend pretzels. I'm just too angry and frothy to be coherent this evening!

I'm not convinced the elections really change anything, Labour and the Tories still got most of the vote share so they can spin this as the majority do not support anti Brexit parties. I also think idiot Farage will do well in the EU elections with his explicit pro Brexit party.

Good idea.
I'll do that too.

Given that so many councils have only a third up for election at a time these results are seismic at a council level. I think you shot yourself in the foot there Clavinova!

ohyoubad

I thought clavs post made the losses look worse to be honest

I agree!