Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

[RedToothBrush]

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

North Tyneside council is probably one of the strongest Labour areas in this country. Labour lost 2 seats to Conservatives, and nearly lost another one. All 3 are neighbouring posher wards by the coast. In all 3 of these seats Labour support halved, while the other parties did not lose that much support due to lower turnout. UKIP did badly.

How does this mean let us get on with Brexit?!

Peterborough is interesting. Both Ukip and the Conservatives have performed badly there. That will make the by election there even more interesting

It's worth remembering that local elections often get very low turnouts if they are not done with another larger election so I'm disinclined to be overly concerned by the odd 20%. This is really nothing shocking.

Besides, when you get right down to it, it's the people that vote that win elections not the ones that stay at home.

Some of us Clavinova are actively involved in politics, and go to the Count, so get to see some of the spoilt ballots and what is written on them, and also hear what the turnout was in the various wards. So when you can produce a Tory council which won on a 20% turnout I will be interested.

As for EU citizens resident in the UK can vote in local elections? Do you have a problem with people who work here and pay taxes being represented? Ever heard the saying 'No taxation without representation'? IMO it was pretty reprehensible to hold a Referendum with a key swathe of the population i.e. EU citizens having no say, whereas some johnny come lately Commonwealth citizens who happened to be here in 2016 could vote and promptly cleared off again. (Yes, looking at you, nephew, you know which one, who has lived most of your adult life outside the UK.)

There were only 3 parties in my area to choose, Labour, Conservative and UKIP no option for a protest vote against Brexit at all.

Thanks for that link, Red. Cons and UKIP biggest losers here. Labour lost vote percentage but retained seats too.

What does interest me with regard to the turn out is who it was that didn't turn out. That's what will make the difference and could be an indication of how the EU election will go.

LonelyTiredandLow
I'll get excited about people who engage and actually vote, thanks all the same.

You forget that we have already had an EU referendum and the votes were counted - a second referendum may turn out to be the unicorn.

I have voted for the LIb Dems in local elections in the past - they are quite good locally.

That will make the by election there even more interesting
Any news on lib dem candidate?

Belly aching about turnout' so called 'eu' citizens voting ( that would be all of us. ) and spoilt ballot papers proves the point that brexists really don't like voters voting.

a second referendum may turn out to be the unicorn
There's only one way to find out.

Farridge knows he can't even get elected at Peterborough, I wouldn't rate your chances, and tbh, neither do you, probably.

You seem to forget Clavinova that people are allowed to change their minds - this is called democracy, which Leavers assure is that they believe in.

We are onto Local Elections, then likely EP elections then a GE now @Clavinova. Keep up! Yes, we do have more than 1 vote for our "democracy" and they all express the Will of The People unless you spoil your ballot - you're welcome

From what I've seen it looks like turnout particularly low in heavy leave areas. But there isn't much about turnout on twitter. You have to dig deeper to find that detail. So I can't be sure from the few I've looked at whether it's a trend across the country.

I am trying and failing to remember (too tired, no sleep) some of the turnout figures given out through the night. It mostly seemed to be Tories failing to turn out. Some areas which had high LibDem votes had high turnouts.

On Corbyn, I agree he is now a huge problem for labour as it is clear that it is him that is blocking a PV

Its not just JC, plenty in the Lab shadow cabinet (plus PLP) do not want a 2nd vote either and will cling to the refrain that the people "just want us to get on with it"

A shocking lack of leadership, with policy decided on opinion polls, focus groups and political gain.

To check detailed results - Authority / Ward:

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/334991/

Even spoiling your ballot is expressing your will. It's a cause of some annoyance that they usually get lumped into the 'void for uncertainty' category, when writing 'None of the above' or 'They are all wankers', is most definitely not uncertain.

The puppet-master Milne is the really dangerous one, not dim & lazy Corbyn

mad

40% of Leavers feel that to be 'truly' British

That doesn't surprise me in the slightest...the number of posters on here and comments in the papers regarding 'foreigners' signing the remain petition was disgusting

All based on a foreign surname...like Farage or francois

Its a mistake to blame labour woes on one or two people, Milne or Corbyn would be swept aside if the party wasn't split, just like the nation.

Personally, i doubt hold much credence to these elections, parties have done badly before and gone onto win GE's

FFS number 2

Boris Johnson tweeted he voted...except there's no locals in London to vote in. Tweet now deleted.

You'd think when he has a court case about lying looming that he'd watch his step?

You'd think when he has a court case about lying looming that he'd watch his step?

Why break the habit of a lifetime? He’s a pathological liar.

I live in one of the shires which is usually a Tory stronghold. However, it also voted Remain. It wouldn’t surprise me if it swings to Lib Dem here.

As for EU citizens resident in the UK can vote in local elections? Do you have a problem with people who work here and pay taxes being represented?

Not in the least - but EU citizens voting in local elections (or the EU elections) shouldn't be taken as an indication that UK citizens have changed their minds about Brexit.

There is a big push by the Remain camp to persuade EU citizens to vote in the upcoming EU elections in the UK (e.g. the Evening Standard reported that London town halls have written to hundreds of thousands of EU citizens) - therefore it shouldn't be seen as a second referendum without the distinction of who actually votes.

some johnny come lately Commonwealth citizens who happened to be here in 2016 could vote and promptly cleared off again

Without knowing how many Commonwealth citizens actually voted in the EU referendum (or how they voted) I can't really comment here - except that I have young relatives living in the Commonwealth who work the ski season in Europe - perhaps they do so via their dual nationality and voted Remain? I haven't asked.

I've been baffled by that Boris claim to have voted in London
I don't see what he expected to gain from that lie

Is it just ingrained in him, to have a set number of lies per day and he ran out of things to lie about ?