Westminstenders: The gall of the french

[RedToothBrush]

We are full steam ahead with European Parliamentary Elections! Something that seemed unthinkable a few weeks ago.

May still remains adament that they will not happen, but the die has been cast.

May is off to beg Macron and Merkel to back an extension but the French are already stating they want assurances we won't screw thing up for everyone else.

May still is pushing for a deal with Corbyn and a Not a compromise.

Still there is no sign of a breakthrough either for an extension nor over a cross party deal. It drags on, but at least no one has mentioned the WA for ten minutes.

We might yet be in Europe for another Eurovision. Psychologically this feels important.

The ERG are not happy.

I don't know if it was posted before, and I feel so worried about the right at the moment that I'm not even sure it's funny anymore. That BBC article about the UKip councillor is frightening.

Anyway DH told me Mark Francois is known as Uncle Albert by his fellow conservative MPs. And when he gets up to speak the SNP all say 'During the war...'

Does anyone else feel as though Brexit has been similar to these stories where no protection was given by a trusted body; i.e police/govt and the woman, like remainers, was basically ignored/not believed and told to 'suck it up'? To me it feels as though Brexit has been a master class to a lot of men on how to gaslight and abuse power to silence opposition. It all feels quite familiar

You're not wrong, Lonely Low. It's not new. None of it is new.

God, I was allowing myself to feel a little optimism when I went to bed at 11.30. Have just got up and read the updates to the thread. Optimism didn’t last long, especially as I was asleep for all bar about an hour of it...

Laura Kuensburg on R4 just now saying "realistically the PM will accept just about anything right now" with regards Macron's demands.

Just revoke, woman, revoke!

Just revoke, woman, revoke!
If we all start thinking 'revoke, 'revoke', like Uri Geller, will it happen?

JRM spouting his usual attempts to derail any negotiations on twitter.

In honour of the thread title, the French take on Brexit:

https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2019/04/10/brexit-les-europeens-auraient-ils-du-s-y-prendre-autrement54480466_3232.html

Avec le recul, les Européens n’auraient pas dû pousser Theresa May à déclencher le plus tôt possible l’article 50, cette procédure de sortie de l’UE limitée à deux ans. La première ministre s’est lancée trop vite dans la négociation avec Bruxelles, sans avoir forgé de consensus national sur le type de Brexit que son pays souhaitait. Ce débat n’a réellement commencé qu’en janvier, deux ans et demi après le référendum. Et Mme May ne s’est résolue à tendre la main aux travaillistes, en vue d’une unité nationale, qu’il y a tout juste une semaine, au bord de la falaise !

"With the benefit of hindsight, the Europeans should not have pushed Theresa May to trigger A50 as early as possible. The prime minister threw herself into negotiations with Brussels too quickly, without having forged a national consensus on the type of Brexit that her country wanted. This debate only really began this January, two and a half years after the referendum. And Mrs May only agreed to seek a compromise with Labour, with a view to national unity, just one week ago, on the cliff edge!"

Still optimistic - quietly.

I refer to the possibly deleted ukip comments I made months back. It's why I think its important to remain and not compromise. Whole hell of problems could happen if you let certain types of men think they've won pro social modeling on compromise doesnt work for the truly horrid.

singing you are inmune from pessimism for several hours! Yaaaay! 😂

I need coffee...

"With the benefit of hindsight, the Europeans should not have pushed Theresa May to trigger A50 as early as possible. The prime minister threw herself into negotiations with Brussels too quickly, without having forged a national consensus on the type of Brexit that her country wanted.

This! TMay has been blamed for triggering A50 too soon but the EU refused to negotiate with her until she had done so - they put pressure on her to trigger the ruudy thing.

Just revoke, woman, revoke!

Presumably some very private attention has been given to a contingency plan B (or C,D,E ?) as to what kind of Revoke message could be given domestically? (It's very hard to number a plan when it seems to be made up as we go along.) Even if it's completely ruled out there must have been some contingency discussion about how to do it.

To placate the more moderate of the beLeavers there would a domestic message that we will revoke for now and return to being a leading member. We will address domestic concerns. Then if 'needed' in due course we willget others on-side to amend the article 50 process - so there's an exception for trade talks operating in parallel for a departing member?

Although why I'm even thinking about a placating message I really don't know- when there has been no reciprocity towards remain voters for the last three years.

Also any more talk of ERG splinterings ? < hopeful emoji>

they put pressure on her to trigger the ruudy thing.

Wasn't the pressure internal as Cameron had promised?

I think she and the Brexiteers thought NI would be a side issue that no one would really care about, like importing antiques. Turns out it (NI not antiques. .... ) is the only reason we haven't left yet.
And the EU, for its part, also assumed we'd take our GFA responsibilities seriously and not dick about pandering to those DUP loons.
So much naivety.

the EU refused to negotiate with her until she had done so - they put pressure on her to trigger the ruudy thing.

There are three issues here.

The first is that it's not legally possible for the EU to negotiate trade deals with a member. It was never going to be possible to formalise the future relationship until the UK had left.

The second, related point is that there are only a limited number of Brexit models on offer (the Barnier staircase). The idea that other types of Brexit could be negotiated is false.

The third and completely separate point is that the EU should have encouraged the U.K. to take its time before starting the process. Whether the UK would have listened is another question of course.

Read the Le Monde article - I think it is helpful to move away from a U.K. centric view of Brexit from time to time.

And the EU, for its part, also assumed we'd take our GFA responsibilities seriously and not dick about pandering to those DUP loons.

I think that was a completely reasonable assumption on the part of the EU. They assumed the UK would act rationally, or at least in good faith.

I don't think Revoke comes with any more political risk than accepting a long delay. Why? Because most Brexit supporters don't think WA is Brexit and that we should have left already and not be begging the EU for time.

Revoke can be spun as "Taking back control" whereas a long extension with EU strings attached is the ultimate capitulation. Also agree with the points about continued limbo and uncertainty being worst of all Worlds.

Wasn't the pressure internal as Cameron had promised?

There was internal party pressure, pressure from the fucking Labour Party who should be eternally ashamed of themselves, and pressure from Europe because of the need to avoid eurosceptic contagion.

Of the three, the only one which has gained anything from the early triggering of A50 is the EU (if any country tries to leave the EU in future it won't do it this way lol).

*triggering the ruddy thing
*
This article says that Ivan Rogers gave clear advice to May not to trigger Article 50 without getting an agreement in place before the trigger was pulled. He testified that he was opposed by "various people in London".

He implies that it would have been possible to renegotiate the way Art 50 would operate before triggering it:

"My advice as a European negotiator was that that was a moment of key leverage and if you wanted to avoid being screwed on the negotiations in terms of the sequencing, you had to negotiate with the key European leaders and the key people at the top of the institutions and say: 'I will invoke Article 50 but only under circumstances where I know exactly how it is going to operate and it's got to operate like this otherwise this is not going work for me.'"

www.businessinsider.fr/us/theresa-may-strategic-error-triggering-article-50-2017-10

Just revoke, woman, revoke!

Is it sensible to revoke now? Would it be better to wait until after the EU elections so we have a chance of getting some decent pro EU MEPs?

I think it is helpful to move away from a U.K. centric view of Brexit from time to time.

I think between you, Misti and 1tisILeClerc and BCF and no doubt others this is something we are terrible at as a nation, and sometimes forgetful of even on this unusually well thought out group of posters here. Even the 'Remain and Lead' message is extremely UK-centric. I'm not sure our leadership is either wanted or at all helpful to the rest of the EU27 or the direction of the EU.

I do think Katya Adler has been much more balanced than Laura K throughout this, and explains things extremely well. She was spot on last time - in terms of saying that the EU might choose an alternative, as they did.

I don't think this was posted yesterday:
Femi @Femi_Sorry 11:25 9th April

One day we'll learn the difference between loving your country and thinking your country is better than all others.

One day we'll learn that there's nothing offensive about saying we rely on our allies.

One day we'll learn that those who constructively criticise our country are just as patriotic as those who praise it.

One day we'll learn that if you only love your country because it's your country and you're not willing to see and correct its flaws without blaming them on outsiders, you don't really love your country, you just love yourself and where you happened to be born.

I think Juncker wanted us to trigger Art 50 a lot sooner than we did. Do you remember him saying that it wouldn't be a bitter divorce because it had never been that much of a love affair anyway?

I think the problem with all the journalists is that they have to be seen to be reporting something even when there's nothing to report, so they're constantly tweeting rumour and off the cuff comments. So you get a roller-coaster of positive and negative comments. I couldn't do it actually, I want to put my head in the sand every so often and turn all news and social media off. You can't do that if you are a journalist!

I think you are so right re: journalists, havingtochangeusernameagain.

I have to make myself stay away from the news or I'm swinging from wild optimism to total depression all day.

This debate only really began this January, two and a half years after the referendum. And Mrs May only agreed to seek a compromise with Labour, with a view to national unity, just one week ago, on the cliff edge!" (My extra bolds)

The EU is not responsible for the fact that May (specifically) and the Cabinet (who are supposed to share responsibility) did not do any of the work in seeking consensus literally YEARS ago She didn't start before A50 was triggered and she definitely didn't start after A50 was triggered So giving the UK "more time" before triggering it (even if the EU had been legally able to start post A50 trade discussions which they weren't ) would've made fuck all difference

And May is responsible for the red lines which made the whole negotiation so much more constrained - and which weren't in the Leave Campaign.

Broadcast MSM (state broadcaster, Sky and ITV) (the printed press is still too entrenched in their respective positions ) are only now - nearly 2 years after the event - starting to make the point that she held an election with the specific objective of getting a mandate for her vision and didn't get it

And the trope that 80% voted for "parties that supported Brexit" ignores the point that neither of said parties WON

.....and breeeeaaaathe