Westminstenders: The Bill Cash Appreciation Society

[RedToothBrush]

We've had a new thread pretty much everyday for the last week or so, so I'm short on inspiration.

There haven't been too many new developments today. There have been two ministerial resignations. Both were ministers close to Boris Johnson.

We had a vote to add an extension if we still have no deal agreed at the end of next week to the Withdrawal Bill. May has said she will do this anyway; this would merely tie her hands. It passed by 5 votes. It now is fast tracked to the committee stage and third reading.

A business of the house amendment by Benn to secure a debate and Indicative Vote 3 next week failed after a speakers vote. Bercow followed convention and didn't create a majority where there was not one (though under Erskine May he is free to do the opposite at his discretion).

Corbyn has met May for talks which have been described as construction, though we have no further details though curiously Emily Thornberry put out a statement demanding a ref on whatever was decided which suggests Corbyn isn't keen on the idea. Rumours are of Schrodingers Customs Union: somehow being in a union but not a union. It can't be called a customs union. And Liam Fox has said Corbyn can't have his union. Though he may have a vested interest as he loses his job if Corbyn gets his way.

Oh and the Commons photocopier broke so no one knows what is currently supposed to be happening.

Otherwise it's been a quiet day, all things considered. Too quiet?

Let's face it David Cameron was a lazy and complacent bastard. The only thing he was good for was his more liberal policies on gay marriage. Shame that didn't extend to affording people on benefits and low incomes some respect.

Susan He's gorgeous (and he looks after his poorly mum)

RevokeRemain Economists in Germany have estimated No Deal will cost us 0.5% in GDP
That's not good, but certainly isn't a disaster we need "saving" from

Businesses have already been complaining that they prepped for 29 March as instructed - and are now losing money on maintaining stockpiled Uk components & goods

Politicians are speaking ever more plainly about how the EU can't continue indulging UK delusions & political disfunction
No Deal used to be unthinkable; now it's just another pain we can cope with

Merkel is likely to support a reasonable request, but it is now debateable how much she would try to dissuade any country that seriously wants to veto.

also can not see it getting a majority vote in Parliament this is also a really important point.

A referendum of any kind (PV, confirmatory, whatever) would require a dedicated law being passes by parliament (even if it won in e.g. indicative votes). This is not an easy process at all, and for a very contentious proposed vote like this, would be extremely challenging (perhaps to the point of impossible). Additionally, the Electoral Commission have the responsibility for setting the wording of the actual question, (you might recall that the last one was In/Out as they viewed 'do you want to stay Yes/No' as biased). I think framing the question (no one seems to even know what the proposed vote would be on at this stage...) would also be seriously challenging.

It is tricky in the UK to have a 'simple' referendum inside 12 months - this would not be simple.

The May-Corbyn talks and the Cooper amendment passing make me feel much more optimistic,
BUT
May will still need to have more than just a begging bowl, to get an extension

• she needs to offer a feasible path to getting the WA passed, which is all the EU cares about atm

AND
I've read she plans to move the Order in Council on 11 April for EP elections, i.e. after the EU Council meet

• that would be a bad mistake, which would make the EU think she is not serious and is maybe going to renege again

I hope someone can say if that OiC date has changed ? @red ?

Let's face it David Cameron was a lazy and complacent bastard.

indeed

OMG I completely forgot the markets have computers reading the papers! THAT massively explains the Pro Leave and Gibbs! It's all to keep the markets calm!

I have to agree with BCF.

People should be allowed to express their views on here, no matter how pessimistic they are. As long as they aren’t blatantly abusive, we don’t have censorship of negative views here. There’s shitloads to be negative about, frankly.....

The public enquiry into the referendum petition is nearly at its 10,000 target in 2 days.

I've signed it.

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/250178

(Irrelevant Colin facts -This petition is started by some-one called Colin.. I don't know Colin, but he's trying to do something! My first 'boyfriend' aged 2 was called Colin. I know a cat called Colin too. As you were.)

Esther Webber
‏*@estwebber*
Funny business begins: Seven amendments tabled to the business motion in the Lords, all from Brexiteer peers

Peers will hold a debate on digital tax (already scheduled for today), before we get to the bill, and Brexity peers will try to add a statement as well. Mainly Leavers down to speak in the digital tax debate

I like seeing the posts from sos, find them interesting whether I agree with them or not.

People should be allowed to express their views on here, no matter how pessimistic they are.

^^This

Sos is nothing but courteous (channeling my inner Bercow) This thread even puts up with my pro Corbyness as much as BCF hates me

howabout That is a majority in every Labour seat support a PV
ranging from 80% in Corbyn’s Islington North down to the lowest of 53% in Ashfield

That does not say they support Remain, but very few who would vote Leave in a PV actually want one !

I agree when it comes to polls on Remain and No Deal especially, the question can significantly affect the results

• especially when up to 25% reportedly believed No Deal = status quo = remain

Polls on holding a PV are clearer, because there is not such confusion about what a PV is.
People may differ about which Leave option to put against Remain, but that is a separate question

Sienna Rodgers
‏*@siennamarla*
NEW: I'm told Labour NEC officers have just agreed the process for selecting MEP candidates.

The EP has voted to confirm We can continue to benefit from visa-free travel to member states after a no-deal Brexit.

Damned decent.

Also I've heard from a friend she's been officially chosen by the Green Party as an MEP candidate...

Contingency planning.

This is a good summary of the Spreadsheet Phil strategy but the headline highlights the elephant.

www.itv.com/news/2019-04-04/how-a-brexit-that-mps-might-support-could-destroy-the-tory-party/

Since my primary voting strategy atm is get a Labour Gov to undo the Cameron / Clegg / TM domestic damage while the Tories take the chance to have a cold hard look at themselves then this outcome works for me.

Also concur with BCF & What, we are all entitled to our views as long as they are not racist or abusive.

Poster I disagree with your Corbyn-love, but I don't hate you !

here's some Lindt from my cellar, just to prove it

It's good he has poor deceived 😉 defenders here, to reflect the support he has outside
Westministenders is a self-selecting group

I disagree with people all the time grumpy old woman but I value different views

Bigchoc in that case I should have added that as a Labour voter and Leaver I am in favour of a PV rather than carrying on the current parliamentary charade.

imo I think a PV is more tricky for Labour than some people realise

1987 was an obvious lose for Labour, for all to see. By the same principle it would have been logical to let Thatcher continue on without fighting an election.

Remain could easily lose a PV.

Not least because none of the illegal practices have been addressed from the first poll. The same LML machinery is being used right now to target voters.

Fact that one side will lose a plebiscite is no reason not to hold a vote.

What sort of country doesn't hold regular votes?

PV is tactically what we've got in our back pocket, atm.

The world is watching a country which is not allowing its electorate to have a confirmatory vote. It's not a great look tbh.

There are many other of May's 'red lines' that Labour knows perfectly well that it needs to be forcing her to drop, as its negotiating price.

If its minders would allow it to

Polls often show exactly what those that commission them want them to show.

howabout I'd include reversing MrsT:

Although she was not as extreme as most of the current Tory party, the changes she made,
especially what Harold McMillan called "selling off the family silver" have had more fundamental effects than much of what Cameron & co did

e.g. selling off the council homes to bribe new Tory voters, is a big part of the horrendous housing problem that causes misery for so many people

I don't see mockery or vindictiveness in sostenuto's posts. Frustration and a bit of despair, yes, which frankly we've all felt at times through this insane process.

It is sometimes hard to interpret tone in online postings. Perhaps the wrong end of the stick has been grabbed here, 2bees?

I don't think we should be policing each others' emotions here, tbh.

Fact that one side will lose a plebiscite is no reason not to hold a vote

Agree completely woman. The vote is the right thing to do, regardless of the outcome. I am fed up with both major parties prioritising protecting themselves at the expense of perhaps finding a way through this mess.