Westminstenders: The Bill Cash Appreciation Society

[RedToothBrush]

We've had a new thread pretty much everyday for the last week or so, so I'm short on inspiration.

There haven't been too many new developments today. There have been two ministerial resignations. Both were ministers close to Boris Johnson.

We had a vote to add an extension if we still have no deal agreed at the end of next week to the Withdrawal Bill. May has said she will do this anyway; this would merely tie her hands. It passed by 5 votes. It now is fast tracked to the committee stage and third reading.

A business of the house amendment by Benn to secure a debate and Indicative Vote 3 next week failed after a speakers vote. Bercow followed convention and didn't create a majority where there was not one (though under Erskine May he is free to do the opposite at his discretion).

Corbyn has met May for talks which have been described as construction, though we have no further details though curiously Emily Thornberry put out a statement demanding a ref on whatever was decided which suggests Corbyn isn't keen on the idea. Rumours are of Schrodingers Customs Union: somehow being in a union but not a union. It can't be called a customs union. And Liam Fox has said Corbyn can't have his union. Though he may have a vested interest as he loses his job if Corbyn gets his way.

Oh and the Commons photocopier broke so no one knows what is currently supposed to be happening.

Otherwise it's been a quiet day, all things considered. Too quiet?

@Sos I responded as requested at 10.34 this morning

Am I being daft but I am struggling to see where the 3 mil "never voted before" psyops voters fit in with all of these polls on who voted remain/leave. As their group suggests, they aren't loyal and probably won't vote again, so how can it be that these figures for each party add up?

I think the people's vote campaign did polling that showed that of the leave voters in labour constituencies there were: voters who had never voted before and were unlikely to vote again, voters who didn't vote labour anyway, and voters who would still vote labour regardless. The conclusion being that labour taking a softer brexit/remain approach would not affect their vote share as much as it would seem.

Loathe Marc Francois more than any of them and that's saying a lot 🙄

It has to be remembered that Theresa May actually created Brexit.

She, as Home Secretary, set up the impossible immigration target
and then created the Hostile Environment
then set the visa rules and fees higher and higher till non EU migration was choked off
so companies had to hire EU to get the jobs done
and all the while insisted that students were immigrants - because if they were removed, immigration suddenly stopped being an issue.

So with Tresemme stoking the immigration flames,
Farage and UKIP were able to bask in the glow
and Cameron was bounced into offering a referendum

I will never EVER forgive her for that

shows the complete lack of intellect in the HoC...

Absolutely. I used to think that MPs were on the whole sharp as a tack, despite any other failings. Now I feel like a bit of a thicko myself for having assumed that. Some of the utter guff they come out with just boggles my mind. Nadine Dorries for example, wouldn't put her in charge of a tombola.

It's one of the favourite Brexiter myths - that Germany will save us (while being the brutal Huns)

I think Germany will, quite rightly, save itself - hence Merkel will use her considerable influence to ensure we get an extension. Macron can posture as much as he likes but, as a German politician said on the radio the others day, Merkel calms him down.

Labour could lose their own marginals if disgusted Remainers stay home, or vote for someone else

Two voters here who won't vote for a non-revoke/remain/rejoin party ... no matter how nice all the window dressing policies are.

X-post @Susan - your source explains why I am confused as I don't think other polls seem to take the errant 3mil into account. Only people looking at that are the people who see them as the result swing voters. It is totally up to them whether the next PV swings, but really the figures seem to hardly divide Labour at all. Tories however...

2bees Why do you object to sos expressing her views ?
and so aggressively too
You seem to be trying to silence her, or at least police her posts

She doesn't attack other posters or break MN guidelines

She is on a low income, struggling with very grim after-effects of cancer, worried about prospects for her DC and GDC,
so no wonder she feels angry & depressed sometimes - AND she's allowed to say so, without more privileged people telling her off

Most of us probably rant at some time, or strongly disagree with other posters.
I often disagree with sos - and with you - but I wouldn't want to pressure either of you, to retract or shut up

Westministenders isn't a Remain Ultra PV echo chamber where only positive views are allowed

Continually shutting down the angry left-behind wc is partly what got us in this mess

I am having a bit of a battle with Labour again as I have done for the last 4 or 5 years.

I do not like Jeremy Corbyn and have often said I will not vote for Labour whilst he is in charge.
I said it in 2017 and then voted.......Labour. I decided it was the lesser of 2 evils.

This time, if we have not yet left the EU I will not vote for any party who wants to leave the EU.
If Labour stand on a manifesto for revoke or another public vote then I most likely will vote for them again.

My opinion may change next week..........

Only thing I 100% know - even if Tories stood on a remain platform - they will never have my vote

Rage within the machine - Brexit headline blizzard overloads FX algos

Machine-driven trading systems in the $5.1 trillion (£3.9 trillion)-a-day global currency market are struggling to cope with the blizzard of headlines about Britain’s efforts to extricate itself from the European Union, making it more expensive and risky to bet for or against sterling.

So sensitive is the currency to developments that even a hand signal can affect the price.

On November 6, Britain’s then Brexit Minister Dominic Raab, pushed the pound up simply by giving a “thumbs up” after a cabinet meeting — a visual cue that would outfox machines programmed to analyse words.

Data is elusive on algorithms' exact share in sterling trade, it likely mirrors broader trends -- around 70 percent of orders in all currencies on the EBS platform, a major trading venue, are submitted via algorithms, the Bank of International Settlements estimated last September.

There is no official data on what proportion of trade in foreign exchange is carried out by news-reading algos, but three currency traders at London-based banks estimated it was less than 10 percent.

Given the complexities of Brexit, that proportion is likely to be even lower for trading sterling right now.

Some hedge funds have opted out of trading sterling altogether because the usual models they rely on don’t work in the current climate, according to one FX trader at a major UK investment bank.

“If it was your job and given the complexity of the Brexit story, do you really want to precode something to automatically infer and put material risk on the back of that,” said David Leigh, global head of FX spot and electronic trading at Deutsche Bank.

“Probably not.”

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-sterling-trading-insight/rage-within-the-machine-brexit-headline-blizzard-overloads-fx-algos-idUKKCN1RG0IC

Isn't Ian Dunt a nice lad.
www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/04/04/the-brexiters-rearguard-defence-against-article-50-extension

Thanks to brexit, we have one of the biggest, and energised pro EU grassroots movement in all of the EU28.

Thanks also to brexit the intransigence and anti democratic principles which underly the SWP, who are controlling/supporting JC and Labour NEC is being flushed out for all to see.

Which is also useful.

^ "^Is Francois french for Fuckwit?" 😂

jas Your DD is an ace political comentator !

Is it a majority in Labour seats overall back a 2nd Ref OR the majority of Labour seats OR a majority in all Labour seats individually. These give 3 entirely different results in an election.

(BCF happy to give you 67% vs 65% of a completely estimated opinion poll number. I'm too lazy to find the sources for the odd 2% of a guess.)

On PV polling of Labour voters it very much depends on how you ask the question and what the alternative options. I am very likely to vote Labour, and would vote Remain rather than botched WA - this in no way equates to me being in favour of Remain - if No Deal were the option vs WA then it would be No Deal. If it were No Deal vs Remain then I might be persuaded to vote "Remain for Now".

Wonder if Spreadsheet Phil has worked out all Tories would have to campaign For WA if that is an option in 2nd Ref. Since most of the PCP hates it either because they would rather Remain or No Deal that should be "interesting". I presume he is still trying to bounce PCP into backing WA now but it seems an implausible Bluff.

It has to be remembered that Theresa May actually created Brexit

Who put her in as HS ? who allowed and supported these policies?

May is all the things you say she is but then as now, she isn't operating in a vacuum, she has complete or tacit support from the cabinet.

When people bang about the far right parties in Europe, as if they were somehow distance and farflung, they really do need to realise the modern conservative party is as extreme as the AFD/FN and far to the right compared to the Thatcher tory party.

Just see who we look to within the Cons to save us? Clarke, Letwin, Major, Heseltine... in their day all considered right wing!

Overall, we get the MPs we deserve. The worst ones are most often found in the safest seats where they weigh the vote rather than count it, (although the very worst ones are the ones who don't last a single term if that, such as O'Mara, Onnasaygna and the appalling Louise Mensch.)

The best ones often get booted out in national swings against their party. I bloody cried in 1979 when Shirley Williams lost.

They are slowly becoming more diverse and more like the county, but they are almost by definition nerdy and out of touch with current social trends, e.g, the furore over the lazy scrounging poor so profligate with their 'Flat-Screen TVs,' and their Sky subscriptions which cost a lot less than a monthly bus pass.

{I think Germany will, quite rightly, save itself - hence Merkel will use her considerable influence to ensure we get an extension}

I am doubting any extension is in Germany's, or indeed many European countries interests now. Germany particularly needs decision on industry. It can cope with the choice going one way or the other, especially now as preparations are probably close to complete. If it came to simply closing UK facilities, at some point possibly in the next year, they would do that. This is not what they or any others really want, but at some point a hard decision has to happen.
It is not just the inability of the UK gov to 'get it together' but that the UK is still not strongly either in or out which would be very damaging for the next couple of years.

Jasjas
Cameron was a very hands off chap - he put her in post and left her to it. Same as gorgeous George next door.

I hear you morello, I am originally from the old mining community Labour heartlands which voted Leave, I now live in a Labour Remain metropolitan area, imo I think a PV is more tricky for Labour than some people realise. I also can not see it getting a majority vote in Parliament whether it is attached to a WA or not. Just my views as a Remainer with North East Leave voting family members and Manchester based Remain voting friends.

Cameron was a very hands off chap

Just ask the pig; look, no hands.

Cameron will likely go down as the one who destroyed the Tory Party. After forty years of middle-class grammar school kids as leaders, they went back to an Old Etonian Lord Snooty and his pal Osborne who were both out to make a world safe for the likes of their very rich families with their money buried in Panama.

BCF

Debate- yes
Rants - yes

Mocking - no . In my view that is attacking.

I agree with you there about Alex Andreou woman.

@mathanxiety linked to a beautifully written piece by Eoin McNamee in the Irish Times a few pages ago, which I've just read. It's not long, so I'd highly recommend it if you have a couple of minutes.

It's about the effects of a hard border on children, on life, on people's psyches, and how the potential for death becomes part of the landscape; and how Ireland cannot - must not - go back.

I'll link it again.

www.irishtimes.com/news/world/brexit/borderlands/we-cannot-go-back-to-a-hard-border-any-more-than-berlin-could-return-to-the-wall-1.3843094?fbclid=IwAR3C7Pn6vzsNCJtb9wLHHjj0howVSQrHhtdnsB96Cf4aFzZ4CdJbntlBKXw