Westminstenders: The May Compromise

[RedToothBrush]

After a marathon cabinet meeting, which no one seems to have resigned from, May has had another podium moment.

This time instead of blaming everyone but herself, she's gone for the 'let's compromise approach' to Corbyn.

This comes after Nick Boles crossed the floor saying his side wasn't prepared to compromise on anything after May secretly whipped on a 'free' vote against him.

May also said she we needed more of an extension to the 22nd May but without promise of EU elections this means No Deal inevitable if May can't pass the WA by then. Provided EU allow an extension until then without EU elections.

She also hinted at respecting a majority idea over indicative votes, if she and Corbyn fail to agree - remembering she tried successfully to sabotage that last night.

Already many are saying this is a trap to ensnare others into the mess that is Brexit in the blame game. With no deal ultimately the end goal.

The idea that May can find a compromise with Corbyn seems a fantasy.

And the EU might have every reason to refuse a longer extension under the circumstances.

For May to compromise she surely would have to break the Tories to do it as Labour will only go for a soft option which is unacceptable to the ERG. Unless her idea of compromise is simply its the WA or No deal which it seems hard to conceive Labour going near with the realistic prospect of the next PM being a hardliner.

All in all it seems more likely to be a framing exercise in damage limitation rather than something which has more substance and a realistic prospect of working. And if that's really the case, it certainly would explain why no one's resigned yet.

Indicative Votes 3 and a pretty dodgy Cooper Amendment designed to be a last ditch attempt to prevent no deal are both scheduled.

Its desparation stakes and the EU more or less have us down as a failed state. And the pro Brexit bombs don't really add much optimist to the mood.

www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/sedwill-leak-increases-fears-no-deal-exit-could-sound-death-knell-for-stormont-1.3847445?mode=amp
Sedwill leak increases fears no-deal exit could sound death knell for Stormont
Emergency actions to cope with shortages of medicines or traffic jams at ports could overwhelm senior Northern civil servants

In slightly more measured tones, he added: “Direct rule in the Northern Ireland context at the moment would require great levels of skill and attention, which seems to be absent from the British system at this time.”

While a return to direct rule would infuriate Sinn Féin and the SDLP, it should be a situation that the DUP, even if is a devolutionist party, could live with.

AND THEN

However, the DUP would not be pleased by the declarations from Ms Bradley and Mr Gove that Dublin would have an input into direct rule as allowed under the international treaties of the Belfast and St Andrews agreements.

In such a situation the Irish Government would push for regular meetings of the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference to try to mollify nationalist fury.

“For the DUP the threat isn’t direct rule, the threat is Dublin’s involvement,” said a senior source.

What happens if the UK government lacks the skills and attention to manage no deal. And Dublin had it...

Finally I seem to have managed a regal cat for placemarking. He says yes please to offers of 🐟 !

It seems I can either go to work or keep up with the thread... decisions, decisions!

One thing I will say is that there is a broad range of political commentators posted here plus people that live and/or read the European press and so I think we don't follow any one individual entirely, any of us. I certainly have become more widely read as a result of lurking on this thread and I'm back (after many years) to struggling through Le Figaro for the benefit of my French.

Like after the Referendum I am back to thinking about a move to Scotland.

And as for today I really hope first that JC takes Keir Starmer with him and secondly that they have a go at putting the indicative votes thru jointly eg CM 2.0 + PV - and singly if needed - because I've been thinking about what Anna Soubry said after my anger on Monday and I do think that might work.

Do you think the Tiggers will be looking for MEP candidates (ponders idly).

No snow in this bit of the NW though it does feel extremely cold!

I think splintering of the conservatives to UKIP/Farage party would be good for politics. Firstly because it evens things out as the left vote 8s already split. And secondly because it gets the far right nutters out of the party and so hopefully the conservatives will move back to the centre a bit.
It's interesting actually. I feel like the left splinters to the centre ground - the LP is always under pressure to move further left by the unions. But the right splinters to the far right. And good luck to them. I like an easy way to identify wankers so I can avoid them, and membership of UKIP is certainly one way to do that
(I'm a bit late to the party, sorry)

Red - I think we must live pretty near each other, said neo-nazi was from my home town

The Neo Nazis were from a few towns locally. Its not just one town. Nor one individual. Their crucial meeting was in my home town though.

It doesn't surprise me. When I was young it could be rough there. Rougher than a night out in Central Manchester. The culture is completely different in provisional towns compared to the metropolitan hubs. I don't think people realise how much some times.

Now I understand-ERG are massively stupid. I listened to Crispin Blunt last evening on R4 blithely explain all the “leverage” UK has with E.U., which is, we buy way more stuff from them than they do from us.
Huh? That’s not leverage! We have none. Never had.
I think TM knows that any way forward has to include the CU, so I think her offer to JC is genuine.I know there is a lot of dissing of her, but I think she does have the country’s interests at heart.
If JC actually engages with the process & gets this over the line, he will win HUGELY. As will Labour.
Torres Re f**d any way you slice it.

Well, it's only my opinion curly :)

I was 19 in 1992 and studying politics at a level and it was a fascinating election.

Labour - under kinnock - was tipped to win (by a slight majority). Much horror from.the red tops and much crowing by my leftie lecturer :)

Of course we all know what happened! my lecturer actually took the day after the election off sick!!

There were echoes of camerons shell shocked face the day after the 2015 election he did not expect to win just like major in 1992.

The whole reason the EU ref was in the 2015 Tory manifesto was that Cameron did not expect to win and have to deliver on his promise.

He said that to Junker.

I'm not sure - although I could be wrong - that Cameron was sold on tory austerity policies either but he was too weak to stand up to the likes of Osborne and ids and the erg.

Of course the above ^ could be rubbish, but I felt very uneasy in 2015 during ed Miliband's campaign and said to more than one person that it reminded me of 1992.

Anyway, TM threw away her majority in 2017 and got into bed with the political wing of the UDF (remember the shrieks of rage about Corbyn and sinn fein? Apparently cosying up to terrorists is ok if you're a Tory!!?)

Books will be written - probably are bring written as we speak - about how this national identity crisis was encouraged and supported by ultra right wingers.

I hope I see those responsible answer for it in my lifetime.

I swear there were paragraphs in.that when I wrote it!!!

If TM talks to Corbyn and then revokes , she could point the finger of blame at Labour , then hold a GE ?

Not saying she would or that everyone would believe it was Labours fault, but she could couldn't she ?

I'm minded to note that the LD represent generally wealthier constituencies and the ERG are just wealthy.

Both can afford to gamble for revoke v no deal in a way that poorer constituency MPs can not.

So is the Cooper bill thing happening today or has it been dropped cos of Treesa's trap?

Neither Labour or the Tories really have the cash for a GE, hence why that option is so muted.

If JC actually engages with the process & gets this over the line, he will win HUGELY. As will Labour

Whatever agreement May/Corbyn come up with, can be ripped up by Mays successor once the WA is through. The ensuing economic crisis will then be blamed, by the Tories, squarely at Corbyns door and rightly so.

Nothing these two come up with effects the WA, as that is not negotiable at present and i really don't see May dropping her redlines and then seeking a long extension and EP elections, to start all over again.

Nandy is one to watch; I suspect she has a bright future. I haven't agreed with her on everything, but admire her pragmatism. Her speech in the HOC referring to her sister who has diabetes,who hasn't slept for months through worry of crash out med shortage was a game changer.

Liz Truss called for a social and economic analysis of risk of staying in EU. Dismissed by Philip Hammond. Point being no Brexit could lead to social unrest and a Corbyn government Love how she keeps using violence as a stick to goad. We all know the economy would flourish again if we remained and future forecasts much brighter. Vile woman.

Interesting re Assange - although they've been trying to get him out for years without success. While he is in there powers don't need to worry about how they should react to him...easier to wait for him to be someone else's problem.

I appreciate funds are tight at the moment for the parties , but if she revoked then business might look more favourably on donating to the Tories again ?

If she revoked then Labour might suffer heavy losses in their heartlands as we are led to believe they are hard Brexit supporting areas, or Brexit supporting areas, are they still ?

I need to check how my MP voted in compromises but he backed Revoke and PV. We're in an area that's a statistical quirk, unemployment is actually on the up and going against the current (shakey) trend. Unemployment will be up again with any brexit so im not sure if there's room to compromise much.

Also knife crime has exploded and the no go areas after 8pm have expanded. Areas that you wouldn't go to at night now I wouldn't go to in the day. People are very open about carrying weapons and they get waved about like gymnastic ribbons. We're on the cusp of things really getting out of hand....if they haven't already.

jasjas by even considering compromising with JC, TM knows she will have to drop her red lines.
Otherwise she would have resigned/gone with ND.

If she revoked then Labour might suffer heavy losses in their heartlands as we are led to believe they are hard Brexit supporting areas, or Brexit supporting areas, are they still ?

I suspect if Labour could offer some firm commitments to ending austerity, then I don't think they would be quite so much. I think it was very much a cry from people who felt they weren't listened to.

After all, Farage's 'march' not only did it not gather many people, it didn't even have thousands gathering to give it a huge send off, which it might have done had the Brexit support really been there.

What scares populists most, is for politicians of all parties (and voters) to behave pragmatically and collaboratively.

Peace; they hate the word.

The Neo Nazis were from a few towns locally
Here too. It's why the cross community grass roots anti racist/PV/mosque support organisations are so important atm, snd some excellent local journalists who report on these groups.

People are very open about carrying weapons and they get waved about like gymnastic ribbons
We have slid into a split society like America and Russia have had for decades, in our last decade.
Who knew that libraries, state run probation service, youth centres and youth support workers were keeping society relatively stable for so long before.

After all, Farage's 'march' not only did it not gather many people
Exactly. Emperor's clothes populism. It's not actually that popular, despite their well funded SM engines.

Penny is finally dropping. Even with Corbyn and May?

Moanranger imho this is political theater!

However, if we assume May is genuine, then lets say she and JC come up with a CU and SM agreement, that then needs to be agreed with the EU and that will mean tearing up the WA and starting again.

If these are just changes to the PD, then they are meaningless and once the WA is through, the Cons can tear it all up, if Raab or BJ becomes PM, they will not seek any sort of CU or protection of rights.

Lab will then be blamed for enacting a Tory brexit.

I am not suggesting that any of these things are achievable , just thinking from a 'how do you save the Conservatives' perspective , following a revoke where Corbyn could be implicated, I would imagine the Conservatives would campaign very hard along the 'we tried to give you what you asked for but Jezza wouldn't help ' lines.

The whole reason the EU ref was in the 2015 Tory manifesto was that Cameron did not expect to win and have to deliver on his promise.

Hindsight is wonderful, but if the LibDems had agreed to a referendum in 2010-2015, but insisted on the format (supermajority along with all 4 UK nations needing to agree), we wouldn't be here.

What is particularly galling, for me as a Remainer is I was quite in favour of a post Lisbon referendum (like what the Tories wanted) - I'm pretty certain that would have resulted in a broadly similar result to 1975, and we could have all moved on.

Back to the present day, and the anticipation of the destruction of the Tory party being a crumb of consolation for Brexit.

Not had a chance to Rtft but PMK.

Owen Paterson currently on BBC Breakfast. Very angry that any arrangement Corbyn and May come to will break up the U.K. creating a new entity, UKNI, in contravention of the GFA.

The ERG suddenly concerned about the integrity of the GFA?

ERG concerned about the GFA? No. Concerned about being the ones blamed for breaking up the United Kingdom? Yes.

Is there any mileage in those orf us lucky enough to have a Labour MP contacting them with a indicator of what Corbyn should do ?

I can't see it as being unreasonable if he insists on a PV as the price for support ?

He's not known for listening to his parliamentary party (well some of them) but at the same time, nothing ventured ? It would lend some legitimacy to such a requirement if he could say "my MPs have been contacted by members of the public ...."

After all 6,000,000 need to count for something ?