If it is 10pm on 12th April no deal or revoke?

[PJLove80]

If it comes down to the wire. If the EU refuse an extension and our only choices are revoke or no deal which way do you think it will go?

But Alexa if we move to WTO tariffs will increase. That’s like putting economic sanctions sanctions on your own country. Why would we do that?

No deal will be painful - much more expensive for us to export due to the extra cost of checks. So companies will go out of business, then there will be job losses.

I would suggest anyone who supports no deal and drags us down this path shuts up when it hits the fan. If I ever hear one of them whine I will lose my rag. Shut up and bear it. You won.
I have patience for leavers, none for the lobotomised no dealers.

Sanctions - so scary I said it twice

It’s taken the EU 9 years to sign a trade agreement with Singapore. The EU as a whole have much more to offer in negotiations than little old brightly. How long do you think it will take us to get a trade agreement in place?
Most of our stuff from outside the EU comes by boat into Europe eg Rotterdam. It is then tricked into the uk. You mention it can all just come in on planes! That will be hell of a lot more expensive. That cost will be passed on to the consumers. Meaning lots of goods like pineapples, Australian wine etc will be come Luxury goods only affordable to the rich.

I’ve not actually seen any real hard factual evidence of anything good that will happen if we leave the EU. No one is in the news saying oh our business has increased greatly due to brexit and we are going to employ thousands more people. All I’ve seen is companies leaving the EU I’m droves and moving manufacturing abroad.
The EMA has moved to Amsterdam as a DIRECT result of Brexit.

But please do tell me Alexalee exactly how are we going to make Britain great again? Hard facts not just ‘oh we won’t have to listen to the EU anymore so everything will be rosy’ what industries will boom? How are we going to stop food rotting at the borders? It’s been said that just an extra 90second check on each vehicle at the border will result in 3 week delays.

I do get your point Alexa. & I don't think it's clear cut because nobody actually knows for sure so, in that case, all that can be done is a) take the advice of experts - in this case, forecasting economists and b) gamble on the LEAST risky situation.

That isn't without difficulty in itself. Those economists pretty much unanimously agree that a No Deal will be more damaging than positive for the British economy- but there are Disaster Economists who have a vested interest in engineering this kind of situation. These are in the minority though. When it comes to picking the LEAST risky situation, it's incredibly subjective- you have to weigh up whether the risk of doing nothing is greater than the risk of doing something....and it may come down massively to tolerance levels, which are at the social segment if not individual level.

For example - will all flights and travel suddenly stop if we No Deal? No. Will there be more checks and longer delays - yes, very likely. If you can't afford to take holidays or only do so very rarely, this is going to be of considerably less concern to you than if you travel across countries on a weekly basis for work and have tight deadlines for meetings etc.

If you already don't have a job, or have one that pays poorly and is meaningless to you - or that is highly interchangeable eg working in one cafe vs another, you are less likely to be concerned about widespread redundancy for the medium term whilst the country restructures itself.

If you aren't saddled with a 1k+ mortgage or private school fees, perhaps rising interest rates and the pressure of maintaining these is less of a concern. If you don't have a house to sell or haven't spent 80k on renovation works, the prospect of negative equity as the bottom drops out of the housing market will not terrify you - you're more likely to embrace housing becoming more affordable at last.

And if you struggle to afford food basics each week, you probably couldn't care less if the price of items like chopped tomatoes, olives, yoghurts, tuna etc increases. Or that there is a significantly narrower choice than you've been used to.

Yes, you could absolutely say well "Boo Yah Sucks" to all those who are feeling sorry for themselves to risk these things. We've had it bad for ages, welcome to our world. I've heard this argument a fair few times and I do 100% understand the resentment....what I don't necessarily get is the sentiment to risk and sabotage the lives of not just all the adults who have this but all their kids too, without being CERTAIN that things will improve by doing so. Would you really wish to inflict the same hardship on everyone, for little more than an unknown chance?

And actually, even if that chance were to work- what we're essentially talking about and the sentiment driving it here is some form of Communism. Someone has to lose and someone has to gain because we're not starting with a blank slate. And that's the root of why everyone can't possibly agree or come at the same thing from the same angle, because it depends on what you already have and your tolerance for risk....

Sorry that was long but I think it's really important to understand

So many problems with the WTO proposition:

We are a trading nation. We need to import half our food, and we need to protect our domestic food production, assumiing we don't want to import all our food?

We also need to import raw materials and components. Most of what we make to export is made of stuff we import. And we run a permanent trade deficit.

We pay our way in the world with invisibles, mainly financial services. WTO won't help you there.

A move to this undefined and diffuse global trading thing will require decades of economic restructuring, during which time there will be disinvestment and capital flight (Jakey and his mates will be alright, Jack.)

They won't solve the Irish border issue. No matter who is the PM. EUROPE are quite clear on the matter.

And if you struggle to afford food basics each week, you probably couldn't care less if the price of items like chopped tomatoes, olives, yoghurts, tuna etc increases.

You'll care if the price of basic foodstuffs increase though. If food imports fall, or become more expensive, there will be more buyers wanting to buy locally produced foods, so prices will rise. It's not rocket science.

This is why I don't understand the "people don't think it can get any worse" argument. The people who have been worst affected by austerity often live in places right at the end of supply chains, in food deserts, at the margin between just managing and destitution - which means that small changes (that could be absorbed by people with disposable income) will tip them right over the edge. Not only can it get worse, it can get MUCH worse for people who are already struggling.

Someone has to lose and someone has to gain because we're not starting with a blank slate. And that's the root of why everyone can't possibly agree

This sort of zero sum thinking is the problem with Brexit.

The Good Friday Agreement is a good example of a non-zero sum negotiation. Everyone lost something ... so everyone gained.

@Mistrigirl I completely agree (I'm a Remainer by the way), and I think your post on a different thread, where you say people voted not to make themselves better off but to make others poorer is absolutely hitting the nail on the head.

I can, however, see what has fuelled that from many Leavers perspectives IF they believed doing so could make a difference to them in the longrun. If literally just to make everyone experience the same pain, I seriously struggle to process that level of selfishness. And if it is to hope there could one day become a level playing field, I think it's massively missing the lesson in communism needed because Brexit was never going to be the vehicle for that level of social reform...

I just don't think it can be debated free from thinking in terms of losses/gains because of the scale of the potential impacts....If you don't stand to end up in a far worse position than you already are, you re much more likely to forget your individual position and communally work together towards the overall social good, without looking at the cost/benefit to particular segments. Or - it requires a dictatorship to enforce, that is personally removed from such decisions. (Not saying this is what I advocate in any way)

Totally agree about those already living on the edge being least able to bear the shock of a no-Deal Brexit. In terms of the economy in general, the TUC and the CBI don’t agree on much but they both agree leaving with no deal would be a terrible idea - ‘a shock to the economy felt by generations to come’. www.cbi.org.uk/news/cbi-tuc-call-on-prime-minister-to-change-brexit-approach/

And another one for Alexa
The NHS is already seriously over-stretched, many say at breaking point. If fewer staff come or existing staff leave because of Brexit, this will obviously have a huge impact.
Patients in Northern Ireland depends on staff and specialist treatment services provided by the RoI, which could break down under No Deal.
No Deal would disrupt the NHS’s supply of radioisotopes used in radiotherapy and other treatments.
It would disrupt the European network whereby doctors share expertise on the treatment of rare diseases, on which 30 million people depend.
www.bma.org.uk/-/media/files/pdfs/collective%20voice/influence/europe/bma-briefing-the-dangers-of-a-no-deal-brexit-august-2018.pdf?la=en

...and in the longer term the UK would need to get a trade deal with the US. We’d need them more than they need us, so welcome to chlorinated chicken and the NHS being sold off piecemeal to US corporations.

If it comes to it, I'm hoping for revoke but I'm not so nearly as optimistic to think it would go that way

It will be leave as directed by the Referendum results.

The farmers and SME's have been on to the DUP, warning them of No Deal. They are getting cold feet.

If it does come down to the wire, it's going to be Revoke if that is what it takes to stop May driving the lying bus over the cliff.

No deal.

It has to be revoke. We can’t have a no deal because of the GFA, the collapse of the supply chains (it’s obvious posters like @Alexa don’t understand how it works and the impact on food deliveries and industry), interest rates, redundancies, the NHS, I could go on and on.

I live in hope that revoke could still happen. Even more so that I understand in better terms what No Deal means. I just don’t understand how anyone could be behind it; it’s bonkers. It’s like sending someone out without their wallet, phone, a coat or keys and telling them they’ve got to “just get on with life now” mind boggling.