Scottish Independence

[rollwiththis]

Is the current Brexit shambles going to be the catalyst for Scottish Independence?

Yes it is and next time the yes vote will win. I believe the only way that Scotland will remain is if article 50 is revoked.

I hope so, at least something good can come out of this omni-shambles

Fingers crossed :)

Yes I would imagine so.

Latest polls of voting intention show SNP winning all seats

Which of course is not voting intention in an IndyRef but would certainly give a mandate for another referendum

It may well give it a push.

A more realistic SNP pitch that doesn't claim it owns half the Bank f England and admits Scotland will jave to join the Euro would also help credibility no end.

But the subs are going nowhere except out on patrol. Any more juvenile grandstanding on that score will not help. Either Scotland hosts them as a NATO ally, or RNB Clyde will be retained as a British Sovereign Base on Cyprus lines.

And the UK is keeping Rockall, which will thus become part of Northern Ireland. (Assuming that doesn't go as well?)

But the subs are going nowhere except out on patrol. Any more juvenile grandstanding on that score will not help. Either Scotland hosts them as a NATO ally, or RNB Clyde will be retained as a British Sovereign Base on Cyprus lines

Are you referring to trident? Pretty sure we wouldn't be forced to host them actually.

Think the idea of 'Britain' being able to force anyone to do anything is now laughable.

You won't be forced to host them because RNB Clyde would if necessary be a UK Sovereign Base, not part of Scotland.

They simply are not moving.

Please understand this immutable fact. Then we can get along.

Can one country impose a sovereign base on another entirely independent country? 🤔

I wonder if perhaps it's this breathtakingly arrogant attitude that makes some so desperate for independence in the first place and has also contributed to the shambolic state of brexit (easiest deal in the world).

We will not have to join the euro. We cannot join the euro. Dear Christ, why is this shit still being promulgated?

There have been a couple of.polls showing support for indy at, I think, 51 and 53% if we Brexit.

Dear Christ, why is this shit still being promulgated?

Because of stubborn arrogance unfortunately.

Will have to commit to joining the Euro as all new members do. Unless all current members agree to a Danish-style exemption. Good luck with that.

In the interim, some form of Scots Pound will need to be issued and backed with the necessary reserves.

RNB Clyde could be negotiated as a NATO Partner. It would be much cheaper and simpler to supply it by land rather than by ship in the manner of the USN boats in the Holy Loch back in the day.

But the SSBNs are staying. Get used to it.

Polls don't support indy. Sturgeon won't call it until she can win.

Yes, we would have to commit to join the euro at some point in the future. We just never get to that point, and we cannot be made to get to it. So we cannot be made to join the euro.

Yes, we would have to commit to join the euro at some point in the future. We just never get to that point, and we cannot be made to get to it. So we cannot be made to join the euro.

A fair summary. So it's a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling indefinitely if you want to get any access to the bond markets.

Might as well stay in the UK and go for DevoMAX or federation.

I think it may well be. I voted no in 2014 - i’m generally risk averse and didn’t think the economics stacked up. DH works for one of the big banks and voted the same way for the same reasons.

Both of us have said we’d probably vote Yes if there were to be another referendum now. Membership of the EU was a deciding factor in the way we both voted last time. This is probably just speculation but his organisation are opening a massive base in Glasgow and a lot of people suspect it’s because Scotland is on its way to independence and EU membership in the coming decade. As I said, total speculation but that’s the word on the street!

But the SSBNs are staying. Get used to it.

Why are you so sure about this?

I won’t get a vote if there is IndyRef2 assuming the eligibility criteria stays the same.

2014 I would have been 100% NO

In the future - I don’t know. At this point I am probably more for independence that against. If it’s No deal Brexit then I do think it will be the end of the UK as we know it.

The poll was done by Rev Stu: wingsoverscotland.com/one-way-or-the-other/#more-108998

52% pro indy if No Deal, 53% with a deal, weirdly.

Because it is a fact.

The cost of the only viable UK alternative replacement, Milford Haven, would be more than just financial, and the only other alternative is to move the UK boats to Georgia where the missiles live, and that is politically impossible for the pretend "Independent" Deterrent.

A unilateralist Corbyn govt would be more likely.