Scottish Independence

[rollwiththis]

Is the current Brexit shambles going to be the catalyst for Scottish Independence?

@DizzyPhillips hardly convenient. That's democracy. A win is a win and a loss is a loss.

No won by a relatively narrow margin in the first Independence referendum and people were disappointed but got on with it because there was stability. Things carried on as normal.

People are panicking now because things are almost certainly not normal. Medication is being stockpiled, there's talk of impending financial doom, rich people are moving their money abroad, businesses closing etc. None of that is anything at all to do with a narrow margin. That's a failure by our government to manage the situation or perhaps failure by our government to understand the significance of the potentially devastating consequences of calling the euro referendum in the first place!

I'm in bed as I'm up early in the morning but a major factor would be the SNP themselves. Any party that insists on absolute toeing of the partly line, does not encourage challenge of legislation, seeks control of ordinary people to the point of discouraging independent thought will never get my vote on anything as I'm a thrawn cow.

And anyone who complains about the brexit bus lies really needs to read the independence white paper. A cybernat actually commented that although it was full of lies, at least they had a white paper, as if that made it all okay.

Anyway, must sleep now.

Since all bets are off with regards to what’s possible and what ought to be possible and since so so so many people voted no to independence because there was no guarentee of staying in Europe, I would now like a statement from Tusk saying if Scotland chose to leave the uk before the UK leaves the EU could Scotland stay in the EU?
Gives more options about where to put the border and we could cope for a smaller vote rather than no vote at all.
Like I say pie in the sky but everyone else is making it up as they go along.

Scotland are entitled to a second independence from UK referendum as a material change has occurred since 2014. However, I think I would wait to see what the outcome of Brexit is before a referendum is held. Possible that Brexit does not happen in which case Scotland remain in EU anyway?

@WaxOnFeckOff
You do realise that signing up for an independent Scotland isn't signing up to an SNP government for life and you'll be able to vote for whoever you want whenever you want?

It's very hard here not to sound cheeky but they're not reasons either against an independent Scotland or against the EU. They are a series of vague statements that could legitimately be applied to any political party. I'd really love to see actual examples to back up your claims there. I would struggle to think who you actually could vote for using these criteria.

So the lies about Brexit are lessened in severity because an online anonymous 'cybernat' says the white paper was also full of lies? Is that honestly where you're going with this? How is that even comparable. Why would you be bringing it up? Independence didn't happen so we have no way of knowing if what was planned in the white paper would have happened as predicted or not but we know for damn sure that Boris's bus was total nonsense.

Your answer is so unbelievably disappointing that it actually makes me feel sad and a bit sick about our future. I hate the SNP so it's best we stay with these Tories... they're much better 🙄 ffs

I voted Yes first time around but the shitstorm that is Brexit has me doubting that.

What if Scotland separating from UK is similarly messy?

An independent Scotland would have been much easier to deliver with both countries inside the EU.

Politically easier but practically much more difficult to deliver with both countries outside the EU (but Scotland presumably intending to regain EU membership). The border issues will be identical to those in Ireland unless both countries are in the single market and a customs union,

I'm not sure we would vote for independence - I don't know anyone with a good word to say about the snp so it's hard to believe they'd vote leave.

If there is another Indy vote the result will be "No" just like last time. The silent majority will vote accordingly.

I really couldn't give a deal if you are sad tbh.

The white paper has been proved to be a pile of lies over and over, I gave the example to show that even the hardcore supporters don't deny it. Have you read it?

Every positive spin on anything in Scotland comes from a government funded survey.

The way the Scottish government is set up it doesn't allow for the proper checks and balances as it was never intended to have one party in power, this suits the SNP so they are not minded to change it to something more robust.

The have consistently failed to honour the results if the referendum and the premise under which it was held, the same as people are doing with the brexit results. I didn't vote for that but here we are.

I don't have anyone at any level that I've voted for representing me, that's democracy, and you are correct, it is difficult to find anyone to vote for but I'll continue to vote until Nicola at al decide that that's another thing that the population of Scotland is too stupid to do for themselves.

I think EU as an entity is going down the plug hole tbh and especially so if GB is out. I dont really want to be tied to that. Long term I think being in the UK and not in Eu is a better bet than in Eu as an independent Scotland.

However, I'm not here for a fight, you asked a question, I answered but I didn't think you only wanted people to agree with you. Anyway, time for work.

I would now like a statement from Tusk saying if Scotland chose to leave the uk before the UK leaves the EU could Scotland stay in the EU

I'm not sure it's so simple. I know when indyref 1 was happening people said if Scotland "left" the UK, it would leave the EU. I am not a constitutional lawyer but I thought the UK was the union of Scotland and England/Wales (originally, before Ireland was added and then most of it removed again, which is why now it's the UK of GB and NI). Therefore if Scotland votes for "independence", they vote to dissolve the union and the UK no longer technically exists, either. I may be wrong but I don't think any of this is quite as straight-forward as is portrayed.

But if I am wrong, I never thought the idea of Scotland remaining in the EU was ever as complex as people were making out in 2014, given that at the beginning everyone would have had British (EU) passports and so you would have had a similar situation as now - non-EU territory full of EU passport-holders - at least before people started applying for Scottish ones.

Also I think it would too simplistic to assume that NI would want to stay with England/Wales in such circumstances. They might prefer to go with Scotland. Or reunite with Ireland. Or go it alone.

At this point I am probably more for independence that against. If it’s No deal Brexit then I do think it will be the end of the UK as we know it

If there is a no deal Brexit there is no doubt the people of Scotland would vote to leave the UK. Why wouldn't you? I would, given half a chance, but I am only 35 miles from London (in a narrowly remain area). Expect a stream of remain refugees from England...

The way the Scottish government is set up it doesn't allow for the proper checks and balances as it was never intended to have one party in power, this suits the SNP so they are not minded to change it to something more robust.

The SNP didn't design the internal machinations of the Scottish Parliament. That was done under Labour. You reckon though that the first thing that the SNP should have done after achieving a majority at Holyrood was redesign the entire structure of parliament by adding a second chamber or similar? Okay then.

The have consistently failed to honour the results if the referendum and the premise under which it was held, the same as people are doing with the brexit results. I didn't vote for that but here we are.

Your answer isn't totally clear but do you mean that the SNP haven't honoured the results of the independence referendum? How so? Did they sneak in independence while nobody was looking? Am I actually in an independent Scotland right now? If you're referring to the fact that there are hopefully plans for an another referendum then that might be because the SNP were elected in staggering numbers post Indyref 1 to both Westminster and Holyrood and seeking independence is and always has been part of their manifesto.

I did read the white paper a long time ago. I would actually disagree with your 'cybernat' given that it's full of plans and theories and not any obvious lies as such ( I am happy to be educated in that though ).

I don't want people just to agree with me I want to hear different and interesting viewpoints that aren't so completely embittered with SNP bad.

I hope so. A lot of my friends voted no to independence to stay in the EU so would change their votes now.

If there’s a second EU ref doesn’t that give us a precedent for Indy ref 2?

I think being realistic though there will be a sizeable minority of yes supporters who also support leave. So succeeding on Indy ref basically depends on either

A) that group feeling strongly enough about Indy ref to still vote yes even if it means re-joining the EU or
B) that group being smaller than the group of “no/ remain” voters who would now vote yes.

I think it would be close either way.

But peace doesn't depend on an open border in this case.

No, but prosperity probably does, and all the other issues of cross-border working, healthcare, family relationships, livestock movements etc would be similarly complicated.

On the legality:

The UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights states that 'all people' (and it is 'people', not peoples) have a right to Self-Determination.

The UN Charter and the entire structure of international law meanwhile says that the current borders of all states are legal and recognised and cannot be changed except by freely negotiated treaty.

The United Kingdom is established by the 1801 Act of Union, amended by the Government of Ireland Acts of 1920 and 1949.

The term rUK or 'rest of the UK' refers to the pre-Scottish independence situation. In the event of Scottish independence, there would not be an rUK, just the UK, excactly as it is now, flag and all, minus some seceeded territory.

The prospective independent Kingdom of Scotland would be a seceeding territory recoginsed in UK law by treaty and admitted to the UN and other international bodies on that basis. Its territory would be that which the UK chooses to seceed. Rockall in particular is unlikely to be seceeded, and vital strategic assets such as RNB Clyde, RAF Saxa Vord and RAF Benbecula may also be retained. The Kingdom of Scotland would be entitled to take this to the ICJ, but no rulings could be binding, and in the case of the UN, the UK will retain its UNSC veto.

The median line for territorial waters would be drawn in accordance with international law of the sea UNCLOS, which may differ from the claims of one or both parties, which would then go to either the International Maritime Organisation or International Seabed Authority, disputes to be decded by the International Tribuanal ITLOS.

Think the idea of 'Britain' being able to force anyone to do anything is now laughable.

Quite. What kind of vaguely competent government would want their nuclear deterrent on the territory of a foreign country anyway? Madness. Mind you, the current U.K. government aren’t vaguely competent.

I voted no last time and I still can’t stand the SNP but the UK government are a disgrace and have given no consideration at all to Scotland. I am not sure the time is right for an independence referendum though as I am not sure that more division and a marginal result either way is what we need right now.

As there's now a gin distillery at Saxa Vord, that might sway an independent Scotland for some!

Seriously, I just hope that all parties have learnt from the chaos that is Brexit right now. At the previous independence referendum, we were asked a simple question with yes / no answers for what was a far more complex issue.

Therein lies my problem, we were asked a similarly simple question for leaving the EU or not ..... and now look at us.

In both scenarios, we were asked that simple question, when none (?) of the detail was agreed. So actually, we were voting on the idea of something. Personally, for something so permanent I'd prefer much more fact than we've had so far. Even just on this thread, there's varying opinions on a currency to be used in an independent Scotland, and the future of the nuclear base. If we're still discussing that, and more, at the time of the referendum, then how are we voting on fact?

I know the obvious answer is to compare with divorce - you decide to divorce (or one of you does) and only later do we negotiate / get lawyers to argue on how we split the assets. But I just don't like the idea of deciding the future of the country (however you define "country") on a series of ideas and maybes.

@MockerstheFeManist I am so annoyed that you are clearly correct (although common sense makes this a mind boggling idea) but very impressed by your answer. Thank you. I think

RAF Saxa Vord closed in 2006 but reopened (on a new site) in 2018.

The median line in the North Sea can be drawn to give England a small chunk or quite a large chunk of the Forties Oil Field.

I'm still confused about the currency, the policy that more than any other helped to lose the referendum in 2014: On the one hand, Scotland does not need to join the Euro, scoff, but neither will it shadow the Pound because it's going to peg the Scots Poond to the Euro. (In which case why not join?)

One NATO member hosting the nuclear weapons of another has plenty of precedent: US nukes were and sometimes still are stationed in the UK, Germany and Spain. US nuclear armed warships visit the ports of various NATO members, as UK and French ones have also done in the past.

Scottish independence is viable. All it would take would be a bit more grown-up thinking and a bit less juvenile Salmondian anti-English hubris. Independent Scotland would be to the UK what Canada is to the USA.