Westminstenders: Flextension

[RedToothBrush]

Just wrote an intro and wiped it. So this is as quick as I can sum up.

EU response is extension to 22nd May if May passes her deal by 29th March

Or an unconditional extension to 12 April which could be extended with a plan and understanding to take part in EU elections.

This isn't what may wanted. It gives her less time and leverage

It opens up the possibility of her being ousted as PM in the next couple of days. Graham Brady asked her to quit on Monday. Remain Cabinet ministers are threatening to quit if May whips a vote to support no deal.

The talk is May has indeed flipped to supporting no deal with many think she's pretty much gone full on Colonel Kurtz.

The EU are in effect supporting parliamentary sovereignty and are being incredibly reasonable.

May now has to decide whether to accept.

The whole situation looks explosive and likely that one half of the cabinet or the other are on the brink of walking. And May's power is so shattered.

However she remains the gatekeeper and as it stands if she's hell bent on no deal, it will be extremely difficult for Parliament to prevent that.

red I don't normally post about my dystopic fears

However, I fear that No Deal will make many ordinary people desperate:

Higher prices, shortages, unemployment rocketing as manufacturers close / cut back and many people no longer with spare money for the luxuries from service industries, benefits cut as the trade deficit rockets and tax take drops .....

Civil unrest, racial attacks - incited by shortages & propoganda about who gets the most -
Far right terrorism spiking
Danger for MPs, judges, even business people who speak out

Probably various enemies joining in to disrupt with poison attacks, drones, hacking infrastructure

Just ripe for a charasmatic far right leader to gain a lot of support
- to take back control

Our FPTP system penalises parties like UKIP whose vote is not concentrated todominate certain regions.
However, iirc a graph for that kind of support distribution of % votes vs seats
shows an exponential type curve with massive gains around upper 20s% ^
and forming the government in the early 30s%

No Deal is the most likely outcome,
because it is what happens if MPs & the PM don't specifically choose one of the other limited options

• and to date there is no consensus on an alternative to No Deal

MPs have said what is their WON'T, but not what is their WILL

The path is clear to No Deal; no other paths have yet been laid

btw, my fears about No Deal are not so much in the first 6 months, but what happens later

as problems accumulate and the resources to cope diminish

Of course, with Grayling in charge of transport, we may also have shorter term crises of shortages
Shameful that May keeps such an incompetent politician in this absolute key role

• purely because he is a Brexiter who she thinks would stay personally loyal to her.

therewillbeadequatefood

BCF that sounds very worrying. Do you mean there is a sudden tipping point between fringe party and mainstream at around 20% of the vote?

^However, iirc a graph for that kind of support distribution of % votes vs seats
shows an exponential type curve with massive gains around upper 20s% and forming the government in the early 30s%

Indeed.

I believe Ukip was getting up to the low twenties in some constituencies pre ref. Not many, but too many. A breakthrough was cited as being possible, but conditions haven't been extreme enough. Add those conditions and you do get the position for breakthrough. Once breakthrough has been achieved then that opens the door.

BCF that sounds very worrying. Do you mean there is a sudden tipping point between fringe party and mainstream at around 20% of the vote

Upper 20s% to low 30%.

Well documented in political history as a tipping point.

See unemployment in the young above 30% = conditions ripe for revolution in a country.

"missinnocentFace thanks for the sympathy. It's definitely a very divided area, more so perhaps than some (?). That link made me laugh when I saw "The document outlines that the council is seeking to track its Brexit spending, with the hope of making the government pick up the bill "for full funding"." I very very much doubt the government will do this - it was the will of the people!

Therewill so sorry to hear about your MIL, will keep fingers crossed for her.

Interesting, petition numbers have been frozen for about an hour
maybe that is how they are coping with the pressure - not refreshing their data every ten seconds

The UK's ambassador to the EU, Sir Tim Barrow, has written to European Council President Donald Tusk to confirm that the UK has agreed to the extension of Article 50.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-47614151

Talkin maybe that is how they are coping with the pressure - not refreshing their data every ten seconds

I was wondering. Can't wait to see updated numbers if that's the case.

They've been freezing it like that all day I think - yes as a way of stopping it crash.

ThereWillBeAdequateFood very sorry to hear that. I hope that it is of the slow-growing and treatable kind.

I've been watching and following and after last night's events I'm not sure I feel any less anxious about things. We are no closer to a deal. In fact we seem further away. No deal moves ever closer and revoke is but a hopeful dream.

www.irishtimes.com/opinion/theresa-may-is-finished-and-the-eu-knows-it-1.3835083?mode=amp

Big choc you have just articulated all my fears but please add shortage of medication as I have 3 grandchildren dependent on it.

3,153,074 signatures another 100,000 in less than 2 hours.

therewillbeadequatefood for your mil and for you.

^Upper 20s% to low 30%.

Well documented in political history as a tipping point.

See unemployment in the young above 30% = conditions ripe for revolution in a country.^

Thanks for the explanation, RTB

I find myself thinking that UKIP are utterly ridiculous and therefore can’t be a serious right wing threat.... this probably isn’t true, is it?

Sounds like we are heading for MV3 early next week and, assuming that it is not passed, following that we'll have "indicative votes" of some kind.

Oops italics fail again, sorry. Can’t get those pesky hat symbols the right way around

The first half of the post was a quote from RTB

Will MV3 be permitted? The only thing that's changed is the date. Surely JB won't deem that significantly different?

I find myself thinking that UKIP are utterly ridiculous and therefore can’t be a serious right wing threat.... this probably isn’t true, is it?

I suspect the Brexit party will be a rebranding exercise to try and normalise and sanitise the far right once again. Ukip are a busted flush, especially if Farage takes his new party leadership seriously.

Posted this last night towards the end of the last thread before the detail of what the EU had been agreed was announced but was being extensively trailed.

Now that we know the detail, I think it is all the more apposite. I'm not a 100% hopeful that Parliament will rise to the opportunity though

'Who else finds it deliciously ironic that after May tried to "go over the heads" of MPs yesterday in her inflammatory "Address to the Nation", today (yesterday) the E27 work up a way to go "over her head" and propose routes that Parliament should it accept the challenge could take to avoid the most damaging of Brexits? '

On an optimistic note, more than 16 million of us voted to remain and we aren't going anywhere soon. In fact we will be all the more determined to make certain our politicians know we are here. That's why the march tomorrow and the petition and letters to MPs still matter even if we do still leave EU. We CAN make a difference to our future relationship with EU by showing opposition to no deal. Put some wind in moderate sails and all that.
I think the domesday scenarios are ott (at least I bloody hope so) and we need to stay positive and work hard for the future of our children