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Brexit

Westminstenders: Adrift at Sea

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 14:35

After May lost the Meaningful Vote last night by a long way she has lost control of the agenda. She managed to persuade just 40 out of the 116 she needed to support here.

This leaves us all adrift with nothing apparent to a solution.

May announced that tonight's vote will be to stop No Deal. She has announced that it will be a free vote and she herself intends to vote against No Deal. This looks set to be blocked but the amendments that go with it are more important. Particularly the Spelman / Dromey amendment which is pitched to stop no deal completely (it doesn't) which is more about trying to kill off a Meaningful Vote III instead.

Tomorrow's vote is perhaps more important though. Its about an extension to a50. We NEED an extension. However the length of the extension is yet to be argued as is the purpose of the extension.

This is also against whispers that the Italian Far Right group has been lobbied by Leave.EU and Farage has directly asked Eurospectics in the EP to veto any extension. Whether this would happen remains to be seen but it certainly raises questions over an extension is even now possible. This was always a probable action; Banks & Farage have for 3 years aggitated to cause maximum problems for the government. Its also true that they only have power due to this dynamic of being a hostile force.

With No Deal so catastophic that Hammond today made the point in his Spring Budget that, if he feels there's almost nothing he'd feel able to do to mitigate the effects of what he sees as the car crash of no deal, this leaves one option on the table. Ironically it is possible that the actions of Banks and Co might be more likely to have that effect rather than to stop an extension. The question, however, would then be whether May had the guts to revoke.

We certainly have, at least, reached crunch point. Have we done so too late to make a difference? And will our new found sovereignity be twarted by Brexiteers inviting the interference of foriegn hostile forces to intervene?

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RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 17:29

Dear God.

Pippa Crerar @ pippacrerar
I understand that Labour won't be tabling a no confidence vote in the Government tonight. There's a feeling that tomorrow's votes need to happen first, and then they'll see where we are.

Why on earth is this even being considered at this point?!

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TheNumberfaker · 13/03/2019 17:30

Spelman is today (no deal), isn’t it?
Tomorrow is extension

RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 17:31

Jessica elgot@jessicaelgot
Labour sources saying they will encourage other MPs to move the amendment anyway. Meanwhile huge soft Tory whipping operation underway to try and convince MPs that it is better to see victory on the government motion, not a backbench one.

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RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 17:31

Spelman today.

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SleightOfMind · 13/03/2019 17:32

Cons have no activists on the ground, have been losing party infrastructure and funding over Brexit mishandling and have no real policy platform.
Charles Walker’s comments yesterday have got backbench Lab blood pounding.
They’re much better placed to fight a snap GE, in their minds.

TheNumberfaker · 13/03/2019 17:32

Labour are nuts - wouldn’t the timeframe to try to make a new government take us past 29/3?

RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 17:33

@RedToothBrush or anybody else...

So, if they want to take no deal off the table tonight to the 'ayes' or the 'noes' need to win?

@ToykoSushi
You want an Aye cos the motion is a government tabled one.

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SleightOfMind · 13/03/2019 17:33

I’m still wishing Spelman/Dromey wings but it’s been seriously hobbled (and would have been close anyway)

RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 17:34

If a no confidence is done next week then the two period takes us to after 29/3.

But in the meantime could end up triggering no deal.

And do we REALLY want to be facing a no confidence situation in a no deal scenario??!!!

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SleightOfMind · 13/03/2019 17:35

numberfaker
EU would agree a delay for regime change.

DGRossetti · 13/03/2019 17:36

Is it just me, or is this all even more a bit fiddling while Rome burns ?

RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 17:36

Steven Swinford@steven_swinford
More from this morning's Cabinet:

Theresa May herself suggested that NI may be placed under direct rule in the event of a no deal Brexit

Gove subsequently made the same point in the Commons.

As @Peston says not clear whether this will actually exert any pressure on the DUP

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Random18 · 13/03/2019 17:37

Surely a no confidence vote would fail?

I could see ERG / DUP supporting Labour now but I think enough Labour MP’s would hopefully rebel?

Crazy times

LonelyandTiredandLow · 13/03/2019 17:37

Do we think No Confidence and GE would enable a longer extension? Labour mini-plan? Not sure how feasible it would be from EU perspective...

ElenadeClermont · 13/03/2019 17:38

Hungary is slowly trying to get back into the EU's good books under the radar. Orban decided he wanted stay part of the EPP. Ut is too dangerous to piss off Merkel so often.

CordeliaEarhart · 13/03/2019 17:39

And do we REALLY want to be facing a no confidence situation in a no deal scenario??!!!

Did anyone REALLY want to be less than 2 weeks out from Brexit with No Deal, no plan, no real hope of a plan?!

I think "only the real headbangers" is the answer to both questions. Yet here we are.

DGRossetti · 13/03/2019 17:39

EU would agree a delay for regime change.

I'm not so sure of that now. Imagine a GE returned a minority Tory government on a pro-Brexit manifesto ?????

TatianaLarina · 13/03/2019 17:39

To be fair the government have lost the confidence of the Parliament, the country and Europe, so I can Labour’s point.

It’s not the time, but there is no right time, and a no confidence vote could potentially trigger a move to cross-party coalition to take control of the process.

If the Tories aren’t going to dump May, Labour may as well try.

tobee · 13/03/2019 17:41

Whilst seething about the amendment, had to go to post office and some old bastard said, grinning "Every time Barnier speaks he does our job for us". I really had a hard time not punching him. 🥊

Butterymuffin · 13/03/2019 17:42

They are trailing in the polls though.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 13/03/2019 17:50

Plumber yesterday said it would be hard to find a worse PM than May.

I think the polls suggesting Tory has public behind them may be changing swiftly now tariffs are out and businesses are realising they are screwed.

RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 17:50

Jessica elgot @jessicaelgot
Here's the twisty tale behind the secret planning for European elections - scoop by @peterwalker99 and @syalrajeev

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/13/uk-officials-working-on-contingency-planning-for-european-elections
UK officials working on contingency planning for European elections
Electoral Commission confirms conference call with Cabinet Office over unscheduled poll

Westminstenders: Adrift at Sea
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CordeliaEarhart · 13/03/2019 17:53

To be fair, I think the Tories shot themselves in the foot by doing their own leadership confidence vote so early. They are now stuck with her for ages, but I reckon they'd had got rid of her in January if they had waited.

TatianaLarina · 13/03/2019 17:58

Plumber yesterday said it would be hard to find a worse PM than May

Quite. She has wasted 2 years negotiating a deal her party wouldn't even vote for!

The EU have done their due diligence - there’s an agreement in place agreed by the EU and UK negotiating teams based on May’s "red lines". That has been approved by the remaining 27 EU member states.

The fact the deal has been rejected twice by the UK parliament really isn't their problem. This is May’s personal clusterfuckaggedon.

Hasenstein · 13/03/2019 18:02

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