Westminstenders: Adrift at Sea

[RedToothBrush]

After May lost the Meaningful Vote last night by a long way she has lost control of the agenda. She managed to persuade just 40 out of the 116 she needed to support here.

This leaves us all adrift with nothing apparent to a solution.

May announced that tonight's vote will be to stop No Deal. She has announced that it will be a free vote and she herself intends to vote against No Deal. This looks set to be blocked but the amendments that go with it are more important. Particularly the Spelman / Dromey amendment which is pitched to stop no deal completely (it doesn't) which is more about trying to kill off a Meaningful Vote III instead.

Tomorrow's vote is perhaps more important though. Its about an extension to a50. We NEED an extension. However the length of the extension is yet to be argued as is the purpose of the extension.

This is also against whispers that the Italian Far Right group has been lobbied by Leave.EU and Farage has directly asked Eurospectics in the EP to veto any extension. Whether this would happen remains to be seen but it certainly raises questions over an extension is even now possible. This was always a probable action; Banks & Farage have for 3 years aggitated to cause maximum problems for the government. Its also true that they only have power due to this dynamic of being a hostile force.

With No Deal so catastophic that Hammond today made the point in his Spring Budget that, if he feels there's almost nothing he'd feel able to do to mitigate the effects of what he sees as the car crash of no deal, this leaves one option on the table. Ironically it is possible that the actions of Banks and Co might be more likely to have that effect rather than to stop an extension. The question, however, would then be whether May had the guts to revoke.

We certainly have, at least, reached crunch point. Have we done so too late to make a difference? And will our new found sovereignity be twarted by Brexiteers inviting the interference of foriegn hostile forces to intervene?

I'm not terribly keen on another referendum, I'm worried that it will be gamed in the same way as the last one and it's clear that people are easily gamed.

However, unless the PM revokes I cannot see another way through this deadlock.

This is very much my feeling as well. I think there are very good reasons for a PV but also very good reasons why it is a dangerous option. However, in the end I am struggling to see any other realistic way if breaking the deadlock. The idea that parliament is going to suddenly change its stripes and start acting like grownups is almost laughable.

On the other hand I have a terrible suspicion that BigChoc might have nailed it with the fear they'll manage to vote against a PV and against revoke leaving us with absolutely no options left whatsoever.

Is it laughing or crying time?

Love sing? Losing!

Revoke is the only sane option now.

I haven't noticed any sanity around the house of commons for a long time.

{greater unrest once farmers start protesting,}
Surely farmers are most concerned that they keep subsidies. Although 'red tape' is a bind, I suspect it is a grumble, in the way that most do rather than outright hostility.
The UK Gov have only said they would match current EU subsidies for a limited period, which might happen to coincide with the end of transition and the bending over to the USA.
Are the 'yellow vests' in the UK protesting against pesticides? It was on the French GJ 'manifesto'.

Donald Tusk @eupresident
During my consultations ahead of #EUCO, I will appeal to the EU27 to be open to a long extension if the UK finds it necessary to rethink its #Brexit strategy and build consensus around it.

James Plumb @jamesrplumb
If Theresa May needed anything, to give her deal the chance of passing at a third attempt, Donald Tusk has just delivered it to her on a plate.

As I said last night, the EU is doing everything it can to support May and help her pass the WA.

Please God

David Allen Green*@davidallengreen*
The UK government has still not even published the implementation Bill that would have to go through both Houses of Parliament, should a third Meaningful Vote be somehow won.

And the UK is set to leave the EU a fortnight tomorrow.

Gabriel Webber @ gabrielquotes
Tbf a third Meaningful Vote won't be won, so it's no biggie...

Andrew Fordham @ ajeighh
I don’t know. ERG starting to panic, so likely to find “legally binding” codicil written on a bit of toilet paper left in a Brussels lavatory.
(retweeted by DAG)

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
Watching the ERG implode, as they wrestle a defeat from the jaws of victory, is a special highlight of Brexit.

Oh for anyone who has seen it todays front cover of the FT is AMAZING and spot on (and very much captures the mood on here last night)

And here's the real one.😉

Brilliant:)

And depressing.

Try again..

www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-theresa-may-no-deal-article-50-mp-parliament-vote-a8821991.html

"Theresa May planned to defeat herself, then decided not to defeat herself by defeating herself, then lost. To herself"

"The House of Commons was a Benny Hill chase on acid, running through a Salvador Dali painting in a spaceship on its way to infinity."

"It was a kind of death-defying, window-shattering, epoch-shaping, never-to-be-surpassed lunacy."

{During my consultations ahead of #EUCO, I will appeal to the EU27 to be open to a long extension if the UK finds it necessary to rethink its #Brexit strategy and build consensus around it.}

I am a bit concerned about this. Allowing the UK to bugger around almost indefinitely, with new UK MEPs, many who will be anti EU and being destructive is not good for the EU. I can see some upsides but it is a dangerous strategy, unless the intention is to get EU27 heads to collectively tell the UK to 'go away' by offering something the UK doesn't really want.
The closeness of both votes last night suggests that the UK still has no sense of direction and as such is dangerous.

Ha!

{in a spaceship on its way to infinity."}
Beyond infinity, surely?

5 things to to the UK government with a mars probe:
1:-

That should be to do to....
Not enough coffee this morning.

unless the intention is to get EU27 heads to collectively tell the UK to 'go away' by offering something the UK doesn't really want.

It's primary function is to try to help May get the WA through by focusing minds that it's a long extension or revoke now.

I don't think it's anything more than that at this stage.

I’m a lurker on the Brexit threads mostly but just wanted to flag up as can’t see it having been done yet...

Conservative whip Mark Freer did NOT defy the three line whip himself - he had a paired vote for a labour MP who was called away on an emergency due to his grandchild being admitted to hospital.

Can see him getting all sorts of abuse over Twitter with not much in the way of prominent correction - and this is how horrible dangerous misconceptions start!

Christ, ballsed that one up - MIKE Freer!! Apologies.

So many problems with a PV. We haven’t got to the bottom yet of the corruption and illegal activities in the first. No way can we protect a second one from that.

A thorough full blown investigation into the first, the findings may undermine the foundation of the second. And then where are we?

What will the options on the ballot be? No Deal and WA voted down by Parliament. We’re asking a population who understands the consequences of neither to pick a straw blind on tSo many problems with a PV. We haven’t got to the bottom yet of the corruption and illegal activities in the first. No way can we protect a second one from that.

A thorough full blown investigation into the first, the findings may undermine the foundation of the second. And then where are we?

What will the options on the ballot be? No Deal and WA voted down by Parliament. We’re asking a population who understands the consequences of neither reject to pick a straw blind.

BiglyBadgers - the deadlock will be broken when May gets her WA through, its foregone conclusion she will keep returning until it's passed.....unless Bercow blocks it but is that likely?

The precedents being set here are very scary for the future of our so called parliamentary democracy.

I also wonder if the EU would prefer a no-deal now? esp as they have already agreed flights and lorry travel.....the idea of being stuck in a never ending series of trade negotiations with the Tories/ERG must be something they must all be dreading.

Of course WA may well be coming back for third and fourth vote. It always been on the cards that the ERG may finally realise it’s this or no Brexit, I feared that in the first 2 votes. It’s taken them a long time to wake up and smell the coffee.

But even if it scrapes in now - it is no resolution. A government and a Parliament implementing a deal that they all oppose and despise? Whichever headbanger replaces May they are all explicitly in favour of trying to get out of it. It is a vote for prolonged uncertainty and quagmire. I’m not convinced an administration trying to implement it will last very long. It merely postpones the threat of No Deal rather than actively ending it.