Westminstenders: Adrift at Sea

[RedToothBrush]

After May lost the Meaningful Vote last night by a long way she has lost control of the agenda. She managed to persuade just 40 out of the 116 she needed to support here.

This leaves us all adrift with nothing apparent to a solution.

May announced that tonight's vote will be to stop No Deal. She has announced that it will be a free vote and she herself intends to vote against No Deal. This looks set to be blocked but the amendments that go with it are more important. Particularly the Spelman / Dromey amendment which is pitched to stop no deal completely (it doesn't) which is more about trying to kill off a Meaningful Vote III instead.

Tomorrow's vote is perhaps more important though. Its about an extension to a50. We NEED an extension. However the length of the extension is yet to be argued as is the purpose of the extension.

This is also against whispers that the Italian Far Right group has been lobbied by Leave.EU and Farage has directly asked Eurospectics in the EP to veto any extension. Whether this would happen remains to be seen but it certainly raises questions over an extension is even now possible. This was always a probable action; Banks & Farage have for 3 years aggitated to cause maximum problems for the government. Its also true that they only have power due to this dynamic of being a hostile force.

With No Deal so catastophic that Hammond today made the point in his Spring Budget that, if he feels there's almost nothing he'd feel able to do to mitigate the effects of what he sees as the car crash of no deal, this leaves one option on the table. Ironically it is possible that the actions of Banks and Co might be more likely to have that effect rather than to stop an extension. The question, however, would then be whether May had the guts to revoke.

We certainly have, at least, reached crunch point. Have we done so too late to make a difference? And will our new found sovereignity be twarted by Brexiteers inviting the interference of foriegn hostile forces to intervene?

Agree policy at conference but Corbyn has ignored that.

I absolutely agree with you @BiglyBadgers - and I just can't understand what there hasn't been more done (prosecutions ) over what happened in the last one....... (there is not enough time in the day to read up about that...£

I can't believe she's going for a third MVconfused How is that even allowed

I’m sure I heard on radio 4 talk of a 4th MV vote - I think I must have missed Hammond.

Don't get me wrong. I think a ref is democratic in principle. In practice at this time, it's dangerous.

rtb. Entirely agree re reasons not to support a p v .

I actually want to see a clear choice on any amendment on a PV, no vagueness like the Umunna one. It's surely time for clarity about exactly what options are available in this mess.

I think The Tempest's Caliban:

"This island’s mine, by Sycorax my mother,
Which thou tak’st from me."

"The clouds methought would open, and show riches
Ready to drop upon me; that, when I waked,
I cried to dream again."

@BiglyBadgers I agree with the relevance of Shakespeare to current goings-on in Westminster. R4's PM yesterday had a Shakespearean aficionado drawing parallels between the two and an actor reading out lines from various plays. 'Tis all theatre!

The criminal activity would be a major concern for a PV. I still can't believe that the first one hasn't been properly investigated.

Just look at the suspicious shenanigans from Farage and also Arron Banks in Venice.

I agree whilst I’d like a second referendum and a different outcome, it would do far more harm than good to our society and politics. Both of which are alresdy significantly damaged. I have no idea what will happen next, I really don’t.

"Leaked" EU memo:

and Merkel (with an eye on German history ?) also not a fan of a PV

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/eu-european-leaders-brexit-delay-memo

The European Union will advise EU leaders that delaying Brexit makes sense only in three scenarios:

to give more time to prepare for no-deal,
to complete ratification of the withdrawal agreement,
or if the UK decides to hold an election or a referendum.

The assessment is contained in an internal memo, seen by BuzzFeed News, which sets out the thinking at the highest level of the European Commission
.....
A diplomat from a major EU member state told BuzzFeed that the 27 would probably have to agree to any request from the UK asking for the time needed to hold a general election or a referendum,
for fear of otherwise being seen to interfere in domestic British politics.

Several European politicians and ministers have openly called for a new vote on Brexit, hoping that the decision made by British voters in 2016 can be reversed.

Privately, however, a number of leaders, including Angela Merkel, believe a new vote will not solve much
...
The chancellor is of the view that a second referendum would create new uncertainty:

nobody knows how it would end,
Leave could win again,
while a close Remain victory would leave Brexit voters feeling robbed, and could even see “yellow vest” type unrest in the UK.
.....
u“Brexit has to happen. Then in 10, 20 years, a new generation may want to rejoin,”
the source said. “In the meantime, it’s important to have a ‘as close as possible relationship’ on everything.”
...
The note makes clear that multiple short extensions should be avoided “at all cost”.
“This would prolong uncertainty,
would de facto create a transition period,
reduce the value of the EU’s no deal preparations
and endanger the political and institutional functioning of the EU at a time where it needs to be united and capable to act more than ever before.”
....
But the decision will ultimately be one for the 27 political leaders, an EU27 diplomat said — and, the diplomat added,
“Throughout this process, EU leaders have taken a tougher stance than officials and negotiators in Brussels.”
.....
"Brexit has already cast a dark shadow over Europe.
What we don’t want is for that shadow to be extended for two more years.
Something would need to happen,”
a senior government official from a major European capital told BuzzFeed News last week.
....
Any decision will have to be balanced with the concern of seeing scores of eurosceptic MEPs in the mould of Nigel Farage getting elected to the next European Parliament,

or the very possible prospect of dealing with a future prime minister Boris Johnson disrupting the work of the Union
as it tries to focus on its many priorities, other than Brexit.

I'm not terribly keen on another referendum, I'm worried that it will be gamed in the same way as the last one and it's clear that people are easily gamed.

However, unless the PM revokes I cannot see another way through this deadlock.

Brexit has to happen. Then in 10, 20 years, a new generation may want to rejoin,”
the source said. “In the meantime, it’s important to have a ‘as close as possible relationship’ on everything.”

This is the craziest bit and the point I cannot seem to get across to the older members of my family. The young will want to re-join so all you are doing is robbing your grandchildren of money (rebate / lost jobs), time and European respect. For nothing.

With regards to fear of yellow vest unrest, if we crash out, I imagine we would end up with far greater unrest once farmers start protesting, people get hungry, lose their jobs, lose access to vital medication and the IRA start up with smuggling and bombs once more.

{Are the Arran Scouts particularly ferocious, leClerc, more so than the Guides?}
Part speculation part observation. Some of the girls in my troop were more ferocious with axes than some of the boys.
The suggestion of Arran is that it is Scottish and might have more 'feeling' against Westminster.
The kids* just want to have fun and I am disheartened by adults telling them what and who to be at their age.

• I admit 'kids' is not PC, but having the slogan with 'young people' is not a simple slogan. Girl Guides, no experience but adults telling them how to act bothers me, see above.

A PV is only the last resort, if the HoC cannot agree on anything

because they can vote against No Deal as often as they want
It is just meaningless arse-covering if the don't actively choose something else

So it might be a choice of a PV - and possible No Deal - or a certain No Deal due to time running out

It would only happen if this shameless cowardice of the HoC continues
and they refuse to vote for anything else

We need indicative votes
BUT
They may well choose to vote against the PV
and against Revoke too

I feel we need a PV - I know it’s emotions but I worry there is no other way forward.

If the WA does pass - we have years longer of this - while our economy falls and everyone is still split on the way forward.

If we no-deal - economic and political suicide.

If they revoke without a PV (my orefered option) half the electorate furious - it won’t just go away.

If we extend - for what? Can we even believe our politicians will aim for it? Do all the 27 members of the EU believe it enough too? There is still no majority.

I feel like all options lead to us being fucked.

Dgd informed me there's a video where game of thrones characters are paired with leading MPs. Jon Snow was JC. An affront to one of main heroes of game of thrones except for the saying associated with Jon Snow via his love ygrette...' You know nothing Jon Snow'..... Give is definitely ' littlefinger'

Revoke is the only sane option now.

tanith excellent quote and very apt!

Last season of GofT next month sos

Winter is coming ❄

How much mucus can one quite small body hold?

Asking for a friend :)

In my humble opinion I much prefer a revoke than a PV because no one can disagree and saves maybe love sing a PV again. But that's not likely unless TM is removed so I'll have to settle for a PV and hope the young will overturn original referendum.