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Brexit

Westminstenders: Adrift at Sea

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 13/03/2019 14:35

After May lost the Meaningful Vote last night by a long way she has lost control of the agenda. She managed to persuade just 40 out of the 116 she needed to support here.

This leaves us all adrift with nothing apparent to a solution.

May announced that tonight's vote will be to stop No Deal. She has announced that it will be a free vote and she herself intends to vote against No Deal. This looks set to be blocked but the amendments that go with it are more important. Particularly the Spelman / Dromey amendment which is pitched to stop no deal completely (it doesn't) which is more about trying to kill off a Meaningful Vote III instead.

Tomorrow's vote is perhaps more important though. Its about an extension to a50. We NEED an extension. However the length of the extension is yet to be argued as is the purpose of the extension.

This is also against whispers that the Italian Far Right group has been lobbied by Leave.EU and Farage has directly asked Eurospectics in the EP to veto any extension. Whether this would happen remains to be seen but it certainly raises questions over an extension is even now possible. This was always a probable action; Banks & Farage have for 3 years aggitated to cause maximum problems for the government. Its also true that they only have power due to this dynamic of being a hostile force.

With No Deal so catastophic that Hammond today made the point in his Spring Budget that, if he feels there's almost nothing he'd feel able to do to mitigate the effects of what he sees as the car crash of no deal, this leaves one option on the table. Ironically it is possible that the actions of Banks and Co might be more likely to have that effect rather than to stop an extension. The question, however, would then be whether May had the guts to revoke.

We certainly have, at least, reached crunch point. Have we done so too late to make a difference? And will our new found sovereignity be twarted by Brexiteers inviting the interference of foriegn hostile forces to intervene?

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EweSurname · 14/03/2019 06:19

THis was from last night:

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
Last thing tonight - hints of DUP shifting in aftermath of last couple of crazy days - IF they can find a way of getting towards agreeing with PM that could make a v significant difference - more tmrw

67chevvyimpala · 14/03/2019 06:23

Morning sos

Feeling better I hope?

I didn't "do" Shakespeare at school poor, w/c comprehensive so I will bow to your superior knowledge :)

From a totally selfish perspective at least an extension end June will mean kids will not face disrupting to their exams clutching at straws

TM will never go. She will have to be forced out much like Thatcher
Sadly the cabinet and back benches are full of venal, self serving non entities.

Sostenueto · 14/03/2019 06:38

Hi chevvy! Just dozed off again!
Gosh yes its exam season once again dgd sat her GCSEs last year the first cohort to do the new 1-9 in all subjects. A lot of stress but all ended very well and best of luck to your DC in their endeavours!Flowers
I got Shakespeare thingy off a site though I know a bit of Shakespeare I'm not that good.Grin
Wonder what today will bring? TM like one of the white walkers out of game of thrones...they are wights(zombies) they just keep coming and coming and only fire or dragonglass can kill them. She's beginning to look like one too with that awful bug she has and sheer exhaustion.Smile

Mistigri · 14/03/2019 06:42

I have a good one for you this morning.

The leave-voting shipping manager who is retiring early on 29th March because of .... yes you got it.

True story.

Grin
Mistigri · 14/03/2019 06:45

Grinchly: that'd be a no from me. I'd probably just not respond tbh unless it's someone you are close to.

67chevvyimpala · 14/03/2019 06:51

I feel ghastly.

If TM has got what I've got she has my limited sympathy 😷

I'd kill for 4 hours sleep.

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 14/03/2019 06:56

Surely if the house decides it wants a different deal then that's TM gone right? And this is just the WA, we're nowhere near the actual TA yet.

bellinisurge · 14/03/2019 07:02

I heard one of the DUP eejits last night before the vote talking about the post No Deal arrangements for the border where we don't check stuff crossing the border into NI but would do a bit of a check before it reached the mainland. He seemed fine with this.
THAT'S A BORDER IN THE FUCKING SEA , YOU STUPID TWAT. THIS IS WHAT YOU HAVE FUCKED US OVER FOR. [actual copy of what I said while driving home]

Holidayshopping · 14/03/2019 07:02

GCSEs last year the first cohort to do the new 1-9 in all subjects

As an aside-my DC did GCSEs last year and not everyone did 1-9 in all subjects. His exam boards gave a confusing mix of numbers and letters Confused.

When will we find out what amendments are allowed (and if Bercow will be allowing meaningless vote 3) today-afternoon or evening?

Sostenueto · 14/03/2019 07:02

chevvyFlowers

RedToothBrush · 14/03/2019 07:03

James Crisp @ jamescrisp6
^EU source told me b4 vote that if May was to ask for an Art 50 extension she'd need to set out her stall to the EU tomorrow to give sherpas and diplos time to lay the groundwork for March 21 summit
That ain't gonna happen. May is giving EU leaders less than 24 hours 1/^

Calling meaningful vote 3 on March 20 just illustrates a lack of understanding on how Brussels works, unless PM plans to pre-agree the two requests - to June 30 to ratify deal or later one in case the deal is voted down again - as the EU suspects it will be

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TheNumberfaker · 14/03/2019 07:03

There have been quite a few RSC productions, not all Shakespeare, that have alluded to Brexit. I remember the reference to the foreign secretary (when it was Boris) in A Christmas Carol.

Sostenueto · 14/03/2019 07:05

holidayshopping were some Igcses? I know that they are being phased out. Now we just have A levels to contend with( sigh).

RedToothBrush · 14/03/2019 07:05

Amendments need to be in by 10.30am. Speaker decides which are accepted sometime before the debate starts to allow everyone to work out how to vote. I would imagine that if he has comment about whether MV3 is allowed it will be a point of order before commencing the debate.

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Holidayshopping · 14/03/2019 07:07

holidayshopping were some Igcses? I know that they are being phased out. Now we just have A levels to contend with( sigh).

No, just normal GCSEs! DS is in year 12 now; his school are doing AS levels this year before A levels next year.

67chevvyimpala · 14/03/2019 07:10

Oh, I thought AS levels had been stopped

RedToothBrush · 14/03/2019 07:14

Lee Rowley @ lee4NED
Along with 110 other MPs, I’m today proposing that Parliament votes against a second referendum on Brexit. We believe Parliament should honour the real people’s vote - the decision already made in 2016.

Cross party amendment of hard Brexiteers, committed Leavers and 'flippers' from strongly leave areas.

The number of signatories would suggest that this will be accepted by Bercow this afternoon and I'd imagine due to the number of Con MPs and the party line, May will have a three line whip to support this.

So that suggests a 2nd Ref gets blocked.

Westminstenders: Adrift at Sea
Westminstenders: Adrift at Sea
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FusionChefGeoff · 14/03/2019 07:16

The fact that Shakespeare lends itself so well to modernisation and / or mirroring of any society just proves that humans never change no matter where they are from in time or place.

There are always those who care for nothing other than feathering their own nest and stopping at nothing in the pursuit of power.

I have a huge professional commitment overseas 16-23 May Confused which I'd been naively assuming was clear - now I'm really worried about extension deadlines.

Sostenueto · 14/03/2019 07:16

DgDs school dropped AS last year.holiday. They will, however all align within a couple of years with no more A*-G or igcses or AS. Another Gove mess!

RedToothBrush · 14/03/2019 07:18

On the other hand we also have a Tigger amendment

Chuka Umunna @ chukaumunna
Parliament votes on extending Art 50 today. The EU is clear: it will only be granted for a specific purpose but not more negotiation. So @TheIndGroup has put down this cross party amendment signed by MPs from 5 political groups calling for an extension to allow for a #PeoplesVote

This amendment is softer and merely allows for an extension to be long enough to legislate for a PV if needed. It doesn't categorically ASK for a PV.

This amendment might be soft enough for Tory moderates and rebels to at least consider.

So we are DEFINITELY getting an PV amendment today. We just don't know which.

Westminstenders: Adrift at Sea
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RedToothBrush · 14/03/2019 07:26

Jeremy Vine @ thejeremyvine
If the UK won't EVER leave the EU without a deal...
And if there won't be a deal until the Commons votes for a deal from the EU...
And if the EU won't adjust the (unacceptable) deal they've already sent us...
Then the UK won't ever leave the EU.
That is the logic of last night.

Furthermore, the issue of delay is not relevant.
You can delay as long as you like — it won't solve the issue that there is no deal from the EU that will be accepted by the House of Commons.
Parliament CAN'T unilaterally delay Brexit, only cancel it.

Having a second referendum can't work because there is no deal on the table to vote for. The referendum question would therefore be "stay — or leave with no deal?" and we would be back where we started.

This will drive people nuts, and I stress that I don't have a view one way or the other — but surely the only role now for MPs is to tell the electorate they are voting to cancel the result of the referendum. I just can't work out any logical alternative.

MPs can't "vote to delay." Delay has to be authorised by the EU, not by the House of Commons. Delay is like having having bits of eight different jigsaw puzzles thrown on the table and telling your mum you can get them to fit together if she just gives you another three hours.

I don't agree with this but it's an interesting tweet thread to see.

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BiglyBadgers · 14/03/2019 07:30

DH and I have a bit of an obsession with Macbeth. We have seen every film version we can get out hands on and a few stage versions including the opera. The other week we saw the National Theatre which was very good. All post-apocalyptic. Tonight we're going to see a very interesting looking production.

Anyway, it does all feel very timely at the moment with everyone trying to stab everyone else in the back and the inevitable consequences of that being that we all end up fucked.

The fact that all his troubles start from listening to people telling him vague prophecies of unicorns which then spiral out of control and turn to shit also feel very relevent right now.

borntobequiet · 14/03/2019 07:30

If the HoC has ruled out a no deal, and there is no option for a PV, and the EU doesn’t want to grant an extension, then Revoke is surely the only option? And TM is almost painfully logical. I didn’t think she would ever Revoke, but think it’s now more of a possibility.
PM did a little segment yesterday with a Prof of Shakespeare stuff (prob not his official title) recommending apposite quotes and Tom Conti reading them, v. good, though I’d have liked to hear Jan Ravens reading them in her T May voice.
About 55 min in:
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00035pn

RedToothBrush · 14/03/2019 07:39

BTW if Angela Rayner last night is anything to go by, Labour WONT officially support a PV and will whip against it

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lonelyplanetmum · 14/03/2019 07:45

But if you were an ERGer (heaven forbid) your worries about revoke would now increase? Perhaps sufficiently for you to vote for the WA? Then you would just hope to bring party pressure to bear over the next 3, 5, 10 years to manipulate the final deal to get as close to your tax free, low workers' rights, public services free paradise as you could ?