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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

OP posts:
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BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 22:06

tatiana If the UK can't change the backstop, then it remains an all-UK one, in the CU and the all SM trade rules
That's what happens if no trade deal with the EU is reached - it was the whole intention of the backstop.

This prevents the kind of FTA with non-EU countries, like the EU, that the ERG want

This is the EU summary of how the backstop would work - no mention of how GB can leave NI behind:^

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-releaseMEMO-18-64233_33_en.htm

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 22:08

Cox seems to be dreaming up some odd scenario that the EU don't think can happen

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 22:09

German analysts at least believe that the backstop prevents this race to the bottom that the ERG want

TatianaLarina · 25/02/2019 22:10

With respect, you’re not really getting it BCF but I don’t have the patience to explain further.

Peregrina · 25/02/2019 22:14

John Mann warns Leave constituencies will never vote Labour

If those of my relatives who vote Labour are typical, I think he's wrong. Their main interest in life is the football, the voted Leave because they didn't have a clue how to vote, but were voting against austerity. Now they would like to go back to watching the football, thank you very much, and will stick their cross against the Labour name.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 22:22

tatiana Someone needs to explain it to the German analysts and business commentators then, because they aren't getting it either.
They are saying that the WA means No Deal prep is no longer required because the UK will have to stay in the CU with SM rules

Hence imo why many firms here & elsewhere in the EU are dragging their feet until they know whether there will be a No Deal Brexit

If they thought that the only other option on the table - the WA - had a realistic chance of needing No Deal prep, then they would be doing it

EweSurname · 25/02/2019 22:24

Sam Coates Times
@SamCoatesTimes
Times / YouGov

Tories take 11 point lead over Labour in latest weekly YouGov poll which shows further decline in Corbyn rating

(Before today’s announcement)

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3c79aaaa-3949-11e9-ac2f-7ff26270aa53

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 22:29

Liam Fox**@LiamFoxOnTour

A #SecondReferendum would threaten to undo all the good work done over the past 3 years to negotiate roll overs of our trade agreements with Palestine, Papua New Guinea and East Timor.
< 😂😂 >

We cannot allow Labour to throw these significant agreements away #GlobalBritain

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 22:30

< spoof warning, I should have said >

whosafraidofabigduckfart · 25/02/2019 22:30

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

prettybird · 25/02/2019 22:33

What a fucking indictment of Labour that they are not wiping the floor with the Conservatives, given the clusterfuck that May is presiding over Angry

Brexitisshit · 25/02/2019 22:37

www.theguardian.com/media/2019/feb/25/spare-rib-digital-archive-no-deal-brexit-british-library

There’s no way this will be the only resource affected in this way. Yet another blow to universities/research if we leave without a deal.

EweSurname · 25/02/2019 22:38

PM to propose to Cabinet that she formally rules out a No Deal Brexit

Allies of the PM say she has come to the conclusion that the personal U-turn is the only way to avoid a 'catastrophic' defeat by a Remain ministers’ rebellion

www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8509130/theresa-may-delay-brexit-u-turn/

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 22:40

Glenn Campbelll@GlennBBC*

One Labour MP said he thought the public vote @jeremycorbynn* has in mind
might not include a remain option

- more about testing Labour’s leave plan against May’s deal.

Checking....

TheNorthWestPawsage · 25/02/2019 22:45

No, Donny - I did not know that. Hmm

"My daughter's created millions of jobs," Pres. Trump says while speaking to a gathering of governors. "I don't know if anyone knows that, but she's created millions of jobs." abcn.ws/2hFejwL
twitter.com/abc/status/1100049700961406976?s=21

TheNorthWestPawsage · 25/02/2019 22:46

Oops! Wrong thread - again!

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 22:48

Considerable disquiet in EU about a long extension
that it may embolden Brexiters into holding out for cake.

Some in the Commission favour it, but possible it may be vetoed

Fabian Zuleegg@FabianZuleeg* (European Policy Institute)

Brexit could be delayed until 2021, EU sources reveal
.....
Risky tactic if deal is rejected: implies EU27 are happy with holding EP elections in UK which will almost certainly be a quasi referendum
with leave supporters claiming that democracy is being betrayed
....
In addition, Brexiteers will claim that there is no cliff edge.

EU27 will be portrayed as weak and desperate to avoid no deal.

This will make getting a consensus in HoC harder, not easier.
Pressure of a hard deadline is EU27's most crucial leverage

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 22:51

ITV

"The prime minister is preparing a dramatic shift in her Brexit policy,

namely an announcement that if her reworked Brexit deal is not passed by MPs on or before 12 March

she will shortly afterwards give MPs a binding vote on whether or not to go ahead with a no-deal Brexit on 29 March."

< if they vote against, she would presumably request an extension, but what length is unclear >

TatianaLarina · 25/02/2019 22:51

They are saying that the WA means No Deal prep is no longer required because the UK will have to stay in the CU with SM rules

I think that’s overestimating the UK government’s capacity to agree a deal post WA. They can’t even agree the WA - which is supposed to be the easy bit. I certainly wouldn’t be so naive as to take the passing of the WA as being out of the woods. If a headbanger replaces May No Deal is still their preference. Parliament may block that of course, but it will just result in quagmire and failing to produce a deal.

It’s not ‘the’ CU anyway, it’s a limited CU with no say in regulations, trade deals etc, no capacity to leave with the EU’s agreement.

TatianaLarina · 25/02/2019 22:51

Except with^

RedToothBrush · 25/02/2019 22:54

Mail

Westminstenders: The Rebellion
OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 25/02/2019 22:58

FT more interesting though

Senior Labour MPs now saying they will campaign for remain. Openly.

Westminstenders: The Rebellion
OP posts:
TatianaLarina · 25/02/2019 23:00

duckfart

I think everyone here knows the genesis of the backstop.

May tells everyone that the backstop will never be required
because she deludedly thinks FTAs can deliver customs-free frictionless trade. There isn't one FTA in existence which does that. It requires CU-SM. Under an FTA, the original NI backstop will still be required, where only NI stays in CU-SM. It would also be required if negotiations fail to produce a deal.

The EU insisted on the backstop because they got wind of the headbangers intention of reneging on the WA. They had to lock the U.K. down into a legally binding agreement to not only protect NI but also to protect the SM.

whosafraidofabigduckfart · 25/02/2019 23:13

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

SparklySneakers · 25/02/2019 23:16

Well it's all getting very interesting isn't it? Panic is setting in in Westminster it seems. Let's hope someone is good in a crisis now we are running out of time.
I have no hope of keeping up or catching up on the thread so I skim read, ignore the tangents, and keep checking the news. I should probably do twitter but I think then I'd need medicating heavily.