Westminstenders: Oh Look is that a fire in the Italian Capital?

[RedToothBrush]

Next stop: 27th Feb.

Where we will apparently have Cooper-Boles II which apparently will pass but still assumes that
a) the EU will grant us an extension despite our fuckwittery
b) that it will prevent accidental no deal, which it doesn't
c) glosses over the minor point that the only way to 100% prevent no deal is to say you'll revoke if everything else fails

Meanwhile in reality we leave in law on 29th March, despite the rest of the law having zero chance of being ready in time. Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal alike.

All that is actually happening is the Tories and Labour fighting amongst themselves. Corbyn is still pretending that Brexit isn't really that important and hoping it will just go away. May is still trying to compromise with the ERG - whom if you paying attention 18 months ago were obviously were never going to compromise on anything - cos they are fuckwitted swivel eyed loons.

Meanwhile the entire country has no other alternative but to assume no deal and act accordingly.

A deal on the 21st March (as is the planned date of the Meaningful Vote) is simply too late for planners. For them no deal has already happened even if it does never come to pass.

The strategy of brinkmanship has destroyed us. We just don't know it yet.

A Split in the Tory and Labour parties may well make matters even worse going forward with further political polarisation.

Where next for Brexit?

Who knows and does it even matter now? The damage is irreversible and will take at least a generation to heal wounds. Economically it may never be recoverable.

FUKD.

Ethel same terminology my leave friend used!
BigChoc the hard thing is trying to get more than one sentence out at a time on the issue - esp if she doesn't like where it is going as it results in the tirade of Nazi/WWII/Superstate ramble and frothing and she turns off. She's not stupid though and I think has deliberately not joined the dots.

Ethel NO,
that's a common Brexiter myth - e.g. among idiots like David Davies - which is likely to cause an accidental No Deal

The EU negotiates to the last moment with all its members to get a deal that satisfies all members

The EU NEVER blink or make fundamental cocessions when negotiating with non-members
and they NEVER abandon a member - inthis case Ireland - in favour of a non-member

that's a common Brexiter myth - e.g. among idiots like David Davies - which is likely to cause an accidental No Deal

The no deal that happens will be no accident. It was set up when May triggered A50. It's the deliberate end point for a country that had no interest in negotiating an orderly withdrawal, which is patently what the plan was from day one.

Ignore the talk, look at the actions. Stop looking forwards. Be a Brexiteer and look backwards (although not centuries, just 2 years). How can anyone seriously believe now the UK had the remotest intention of working on a deal. That's the fact of the matter. The interpretation .... well that's a different matter.

lonely it was just the "ever closer political union" and the army she doesn't like

You can combat those points quite easily:

The EU treaties do not call for 'ever closer political union' - the phrase is 'ever closer union among the peoples of Europe' - not Member States. In fact, an opt out from 'ever closer union' was one of the things that Cameron actually did manage to come away with in February 2016.

EU army: this could only happen if all Member States were in favour, i.e. it has to be a unanimous decision, and for the UK agree to it in the EU there would have had to have been referendum held in the UK.

Exactly - which is why they told us last week they are done, no more negotiations!

Ethel I have been struck by how many ignorant & arrogant MPs we have,
who are putting party before country,
who would rather see the economy crash over a cliff than split their party, or damage their own career

I have been struck by how many supposedly decent backbench MPs are too cowardly / loyal to their party when it comes to actually voting in the HoC, rather than making pious statements

The next few weeks are crucial:
there is no more time, no magic unicorn will appear

It is either No Deal or this basically unchanged WA (maybe with a tiny chance of a PV vs Remain)

{My brother (strong remainer who threw in the towel the day after the referendum) says the EU often blinks at the last minute and a deal will be done.

Do the EU have form for this?}
BCF beat me to this but yes the EU will do all it can for members. Non members like China, the USA and Russia have a tougher time. The UK will become an 'other' and can anticipate some serious negotiations in future.

Why would they sell out a member state (Ireland) and the free market for FOM membership Deal basic principle, for us as we leave. Seriously, why would they do that?

Yes, I've said we had the veto and as a favoured nation we were in the driving seat, which she agrees (not usually focused on the veto for it to make 'sense' in my opinion, but hey). She thought Cameron was very hard done by. She has all of these stock phrases but trying to counter each of them when they are in a stream of frenzy down the phone is hard.

RG I agree and think Davis isn't just bumbling on about blinking, it is a coordinated effort to make everyone look as though the EU has diddled us at the last minute while the Tories get complete control. Even Corbyn wants chaos to go against the status quo and I imagine in his mind if it happens under Tories then Labour will get the swing of popular opinion next time around. Doubtful we will get one in my opinion, but I also doubt that people would be happier voting Labour given the weakness his lack of opposition has shown.

Do the EU have form for this?

No. Even in terms of members, they will hold strong if the alternative is to undermine the EU as a whole (Greece and austerity, Italy, spain, Poland and its judicial shenanigans, the ongoing fight against corruption in Bulgaria and Romania).

"Apparently the Young Conservatives compete to be as right wing as possible. All about ideology now."

They always have done. They were an absolute pain in the backside to the University staff where I used to work.

I haven't forgotten about the bullying/suicide scandal a few years ago, either.

The big problem is that Brexiters have a totally unrealistic idea of how powerful the UK is in the world

The EU is an economic superpower, second in the world only to the USA

The UK is a medium-sized power which will be bullied by the big economic powers like USA, China
If Brexiters think the EU is being too tough, wait until they negotiate with other big blocs

e.g. Japan îs only one of the countries already refusing to roll over its EU trade deal for the UK and demanding better trade terms from the UK than it got from the much stronger EU.

e.g. Defence Sec Williamson getting his knuckles rapped by China cancelling trade talks after he promised to send our only -not yet finished - aircraft carrier there

DG “the light at the end of the tunnel”^
is^ the flickering match of Theresa May trying to find the bloody candle"

As DGR has pointed out the stance taken by the UK has been adversarial and non cooperative throughout the last 2 1/2 years. Allowing senior cabinet members to make personal and general slurs on negotiators and heads in the EU, persistent lateness at meetings/deadlines. Deliberate setting of 'red lines' that they know will NEVER be accepted by the EU, because they underpin what the EU is about.
There has been no outward indication of the UK actually negotiating anything in a calm rational manner, which you would have expected when dealing with a bloc that will be essential in the future for even the basics such as feeding the UK.
The UK has basically climbed into a cage with a hungry lion, and is poking the lion with a pointy stick, it can't end well.

No deal has always been the point.

There is no other logical conclusion to draw from the invoking of A50 2 years ago to the deliberate hamstringing of parliament we are currently seeing.

You have my sympathy 👋
British politics is so hard to understand. Why is it a question about tory vs labor. Wouldn't think Brexit is just a domestic political battleground. I would think it was you against the EU, to get the best deal possible?
Surely you don't think the EU will negotiate another deal because your politicians cannot corporate. You must be so frustrated 🥺.

Fuck it.
Im having a sausage roll

I like your style 67Chevy!

lonelyandtired Cameron was making ridiculous demands that would have destroyed the Single Market and the entire set of EU treaties.

He demanded all the benefits of the EU - including the right to vote on / veto laws for all other EU members -
but he did not want Britain to be bound by EU law or the ECJ.

What the EU offered instead was that they would allow Britain to go into a new outer EU ring - maybe to be joined later by other members not in the Eurozone -
in which further integration of any kind - including joining the Euro, EU army etc - would be stopped, so the Uk could stay permanently at the 2015 status

Cameron refused, because he wanted Britain to be in the inner ring, to make decisions on the wwhole EU, but not to be bound by the rules there.

So he ended up with some other concessions, which Merkel fought to get for him, to keep Briatin and their fellow Conservatives on board
Hence why she and Germany are now so pissed off with the Tories

The big problem is that Brexiters have a totally unrealistic idea of how powerful the UK is in the world

Nope. They know exactly how weak and vulnerable the UK will be after Brexit, In fact, if the UK isn't they won't have made their millions. They've done to the UK what a parade of African dictators did to their countries.

@Littlespaces, Edwin Hayward on Twitter has done a thread of Brexit impact tweets. I can't get it to do a link, but he's @ukdomainnames. If you look through the thread he's got pinned at the top of his account, near the bottom is a thread of 200 examples of impacts on business etc.

Cameron refused, because he wanted Britain to be in the inner ring, to make decisions on the wwhole EU, but not to be bound by the rules there.

It's irrelevant what Cameron wanted anyway. He knew the Tory party would never accept not being in the centre.

Steve Bullock ( aka @guitarmoog) was making just that point this morning on Sky News: that the EU might go to the wire in internal negotiations, but the UK is a soon to be ex member - so that is not the same situation at all.

What I hadn't realised is that he is a former UK negotiator within the EU so a pesky expert . I'd been more aware of him as an articulate and thoughtful blogger that knows something about Scotland

Do the EU have form on this Ethel Fechan - a relevant thread from Katya Adler:
twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler

It's reversing Hanlon, but I'm starting to think that Theresa Mays invention of the backstop was to persuade/trick a sceptical EU - along with more credulous Tories - into believing she was serious about wanting a withdrawal agreement.

We're closer to 29th March that the 1st January now - over half way.

I agree about the casual disregard for the advisory label.

Sorry - I haven't caught up with the thread yet, so I'm pages behind but I just wanted to comment on this. I found something out about our 'advisory referendum' last night, on the march. It was a trap all along.
Vote leave broke electoral law and so - had the ref been binding - its result would have to have been declared null and void. However - you can't declare an advisory ref null and void because its basically just a big opinion poll. So it stands, where a binding ref would have been torn up and done again.

They made it advisory knowing they would cheat and that there would be nothing that could be done about it. The 'advisory' nature is as much a part of the coup as the lies and misinformation.