Future US FTA & Ireland:
pp upthread were asking how could we have a US FTA if Congress blocks any NI border infrastructure / checks or any weakening of the GFA
when the US has also said they will only sign a deal if the UK lets in their industrialised meat, chicken etc which doesn't satisfy EU food, health & hygeine standards.
Answer:
the US will demand that trade deal is with GB only and that there is an NI-only backstop.
So all checks would be in the Irish Sea
This would roll back the concession that the EU made to May of an all-UK backstop,
but the EU would of course be quite happy to agree to that.
So would the Irish government
Opinion polls in Ireland, quoted in the last thread, are that
- only 7% want to make more concessions to the UK
- 79% want Varadkar not to concede anything - and half of those want him to get tougher with the UK^
The Irish govt and Irish public opinion would be supported widely in the US,
including among Trump supporters
Trump would have no problem siding with Ireland against the UK:
After all, when the IRA were bombing London in the 1990s, he proudly attended an IRA / Sinn Fein fund-raising dinner with honoured guest Gerry Adams
So long as he gets his trade deal for the powerful US farming / agribusiness sector, he couldn't care less if the UK is humiliated and forced into a clear Irish Sea border.
The "Special Relationship" the UK thinks it has with the US only applies when it is in US interests