Westminstenders: It's oh so quiet...

[RedToothBrush]

It's oh so quiet // It's oh so still // You're all alone // And so peaceful until

You ring the news // Bim bam // You shout and you yell // Hi ho ho // You broke the spell // Gee, this is swell you almost have a fit // Brexit is fab and I got hit // There's no mistake get on with it

'Til it's over and then // It's nice and quiet //
Shh shh // But soon again // Shh shh // Uh oh let's start a big riot

You blow a fuse // Zing boom // The devil cuts loose // Zing boom // What's the use
Wow bam // Of leaving the EU

It's gone quiet.

May was supposed to go on a tour of the EU to get concessions. She hasn't.

Instead we are currently stuck in an internal never ending debate about Alternative Arrangements (which is being abbreved too A. A. by less convinced souls) and how Germany got all the money from Marshall Aid (it didn't) and how navy ships can suddenly sprout front opening hulls to become roll on roll off ferries to emulate the spirit of Dunkirk. One of our greatest ever military defeats, which merely had good PR.

The idea that there is going to be any shift in position between now and 14th Feb seems unlikely. It suits the EU and it suits the ERG to be blunt about it. It does not suit the UK national interest though.

Instead our livihoods and futures are slowly drip, drip, dripping away. Invisible to those loved up on the idea of Leaving. But like a newly wed, how long does that feeling last? 42% of British marriages end in divorce after all. When do people fall out of love with Brexit?

The revelation of the need for the WAIB is scary too. The WAIB is the Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill. You can read more about it here:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1091734003265224708.html
Well I say you can read about it, but from the thread you can see that the WAIB hasn't been published yet. And for us to Brexit without a legal and constitutional nightmare parliament needs to pass both the WA And the WAIB. And if you thought it was difficult to get the WA through just wait until you clap eyes on the WAIB details.

With this in mind there are noises from the ERG about an A50 extension. Y'know the one we can't have unless the EU think it's it their interests too.

mlexmarketinsight.com/insights-center/editors-picks/brexit/europe/the-uk-rips-out-its-eu-law-drip,-only-to-hook-up-to-another
More on the WAIB.

Of course there is a more sinister explanation: May does indeed intend to no deal and or use civil contingency law to pass the WAIB in whatever form she sees fit without parliamentary scrutiny.

Tick, tick, tick.

A friend told me today not to worry about brexit as "we survived before and we'll survive again". I didn't say much. My history lessons were rather grimmer in reminding me, that the ones who didn't survive don't get to be so optimistic.

Perhaps, though Corbyn would like a GE, others in the Labour Party would not...

Well the latest polls are showing the Tory lead increasing aren't they, so the trend isn't right for a GE?

@maryjoyce - after leaving with your version of 'no deal' what do you expect our relationship with Europe to be?

If we leave without paying our debts that will be an acrimonious departure - if so how do you expect the EU to behave towards us?

What do you expect to happen to the food and manufacturing trade with the EU - wouldn't you expect the EU to demand monies before permitting trade?

Do you believe that life in Britain will be better without that trade?

And anyone in power has to deal with all this shit - surely sensible Labour people can see that Corbyn and his gang just wouldn’t or couldn’t do so? After all the promises of better things under a Labour gov., the backlash would be phenomenal.

Norway urges students to avoid UK universities in Brexit warning

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/04/norway-students-uk-universities-brexit-warning

Higher education minister says Norwegians should study in countries other than Britain
......
the Russell Group of universities revealed a 9% decrease in the number of EU postgraduate research students enrolling at its institutions this academic year,
after a similar decline the year before.

The problem is not just trade with the EU - and 50% of our exports

No Deal also means losing the 40 EU FTAs (Free Trade Agreements) we have with 60 or so non-EU countries, like Japan
and the 700-800 other agreements such as MRAs that we have with countries like the USA

The UK hasn't enough experienced trade negotiators to handle more than 2-3 agreements properly at a time !

So far, only about 3 countries have agreed to just roll over their EU agreements to the UK
Most want to renegotiate, because they think they can drive a harder bargain with the UK on its own

Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRAs) promote trade in goods between the European Union and third countries and facilitate market access.

https://ec.europa.eu/growth/single-market/goods/international-aspects/mutual-recognition-agreements_en

They are bilateral agreements, and aim to benefit industry by providing easier access to conformity assessment.

The EU has many MRAs with the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand
There are 55 bilateral MRAs between the EU and the US alone which enable us to trade in a relatively frictionless way with America.

Without that trade infrastructure in place, much of the UK trade in goods will cease, until replacement infrastructure is built

@maryjoyce - a simple question. How does the EU 'control' us? You said that several times in your last post - could you please give a couple of examples of this 'control'?

I think the Sunderland example shows that even where there are no economic arguments for Brexit, and even where there are in fact strong economic arguments for rejecting Brexit, Brexit is still popular.

Which suggests that something else is driving the desire for Brexit. It's like a kind of fanatical separatism, borne of fear and nourished with ideas of difference and vague notions of eternal identity.

Tribalism and xenophobia slot right into this.

Anyone claiming they are pro-Brexit these days for economic reasons makes me very, very suspicious.

I see our friend is more careful about cotton buds than Brexit (about 08:25)
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3499656-To-not-give-up-using-cotton-ear-buds?trending=1

And ?

Queenie As posted before, the UK can probably still attempt to use its own proposed schedules & quotas until new ones are negotiated with the objecting countries
Other countries have done this in the past
(although no country afaik has ever chosen to permanently leave its regional trade bloc, like we have)

3 main problems:

1. WTO terms alone would be dreadful for the UK trade & economy.
   Contrary to the disgraceful Brexiter lies, we trade with almost all countries via EU trade deals and arrangements,
   either the 40 FTAs or the 700-800 other trade arrangements & agreements

2. Any of the objecting countries might choose to apply punitive tariffs or add NTBs (Non-Trade Barriers)
   if they feel sufficiently annoyed / tough guys

3. Even WTO rules would require the UK to pass hundreds of new laws before Brexit day
   and there is nowhere near time in the ordinary HoC process
   Possibly May could use the Henry VIII powers to pass them in huge batches without debate or votes, as it would be an emergency.

Frank. If you bother to read what I have written you have your answer

The problem with any of these deals with rebels, party faithful etc. is that Theresa May has shown herself to be so untrustworthy.
There’s no guarantee that she’ll keep any promises she makes, but past events indicate that she’ll be looking to weasel out of any agreement before the ink on the paper has dried.

I recommend the closed end of what used to be known as a kirby grip (bobby pin) for safe removal of ear wax.

BCF jas At this stage, I'd gladly settle for the WA
The alternative is No Deal

Well, i wouldn't, 2 to 4 years of further uncertainty, leading to a trading relationship which is going to be shaped by the ERG, which will also throw the GFA under a bus.
This uncertainty will see further disinvestment in the UK, few will invest knowing that its all change again in a couple of years.

Its a short term panacea that will prove to be another compounded mistake for the UK.

It is my belief that May is pushing the consequences of no--deal to frighten us all to want her deal, every day she leaks another awful outcome, the latest waving trucks through at ports.

The Govt will not allow a cliff edge no-deal, they wont be able to justify the damage.

However, Lab will support an amended WA out of fear, ensuring the Cons can share the blame around Parliament, see how Greg Clark blamed Lab, omitting its his own party/dup that have rejected the WA too.
No rebuttal from Lab showed on BBC/ITV, maybe they didn't even have one?

I don't know much, but it irks me when people say that we were ok before we joined, as if that compares to what it will be like when we leave again. Even if things WERE lovely before we joined - which of course they weren't- times have changed!

An orderly Brexit depends on a united Tory party. So start stockpiling now

Written by a Tory, or at least he was a Tory before this clusterfuck

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/03/brexit-united-tory-party-stockpiling-conservatives-europe

jas What do you think is feasible instead of the WA ?
Not what you want ideally to happen, which is probably Revoke (like me)
but what other solution will a majority of MPs vote for, that the EU will agree to and for which we have time ?

MPs backed down even on the Cooper Amendment to avoid No Deal

imo May would choose No Deal over tearing apart the Tory party;
only a few Tory MPs and hardly any party members would leave over No Deal

From history, parties undergoing a civil war don't win GEs, especially if they split
e.g. Labour, after the SDP split away, lost massively in the next 2 GEs and was still too wounded at the 3rd GE

May could reasonably gamble on nationalism to win a No Deal GE, then blaming Labour, Remainers & the EU for all the bad effects, to win the following GE too

since the Emergency Powers can be used to override normal parliamentary - and I suspect judicial - processes

I'm wondering if May's plan Z if all else fails is to declare a national emergency sometime in March

- and the prospect of No Deal is certainly an emergency -

then use Emergency Powers to pass the WA and the WAIB

That would be incredibly autocratic and there would be hell to pay, but May's whole career shows autocracy & using brute force when she has the power to do so

@red** What do you think ?

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3474519-Brexit-predictions-will-it-be-TMs-deal-no-deal-second-referendum-or-just-stay-in
From my post from 9th Jan:

However I do think there is the option that May will in effect defy parliament and abuse the power of the executive by declaring an emergency somehow at the last minute in the national interest which allows her to formally agree to the WA. The EU can't question the legimatcy or they question British sovereignity. At this point, it would be too late for anyone to challenge.

So yeah. May is a creature of habit who doesn't much like democracy.

Dear God, it’s true the EU can’t keep its nose out of anything!
Here it is on cotton buds:
eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A62004CJ0303
At least our ears are safer because of EU law.

Oh wow (about Holland not allowing dual nationality). I just realised this means my friend is renouncing her British citizenship then? She watsapped me and said she'd gone to the Dutch consulate with her Dutch DM to sort a Dutch passport.

So far my own Brexit worries have been aaarg need to get 'settled status' and aaaarg 'the economy might collapse' but It just made me realise you guys must be so pissed off at losing the right to move to 27 countries.
Sorry

@maryjoice - no, you have said what you want to happen re leaving but not what you expect to happen after that - what do you expect our relationship with Europe to be?

If you expect us to continue to trade, even "under wto" then we will have to pay our debts.

If you expect EU trade to stop then you expect the minford model - where we lose agriculture and manufacturing