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Brexit

Hypothetically, is there any combination of circumstance that could stop Brexit?

85 replies

Apileofballyhoo · 02/02/2019 22:42

Hypothetically but with some basis in reality, I mean. So not an alien invasion.

OP posts:
Dapplegrey · 03/02/2019 12:27

The real elite, who have invested against the UK and are desperate to avoid all that tax evasion legislation, might find themselves ruined.

Who are these people? It’s high time tax evaders were brought to book.

Spinflight · 03/02/2019 12:55

"Keep it accurate if you are going to pontificate with such authority."

They ruled that Art50 could be revoked. Though this ruling wasn't at the behest of the UK government.

And Art50 can't be revoked because we leave under the Withdrawal Act, which is law.

They also ruled that Art50 could only be extended under law if it wasn't to give the UK more time to negotiate as they considered this would confer an advantage to the UK.

Moussemoose · 03/02/2019 13:01

Withdrawal Act, which is law

Just because something is law doesn't mean Parliament can't and won't change the law.

A law is only valid as long as Parliament wants it to be, just look at Fixed Term Parliament Act - how long did it take before that was 'adapted'.

Postpone A50: revoke or hold a referendum perfectly possible.

I think we need to go through the pain of Brexit. There are too many people who would complain, bitch and whine about it being a fix and corrupt politicians.

We need to leave, get slapped in the face with reality and then join the EU again in 10 years on a worse deal with a massive loss of influence and credibility.

PetShopGirl · 03/02/2019 13:06

Genuine question @Spinflight what about breaking the Good Friday Agreement on a no deal exit? What would trump what? Breaking the law (I am assuming you are factually correct about that being the case if we revoke) or an international treaty? Sounds like we would need to do one or the other.

Gonzales27 · 03/02/2019 13:12

A bit off topic but Nissan have just confirmed that they are going to build their latest model outside of uk. They have said specifically that it's because of BREXIT.

Nissan employ 7000 people in Sunderland.

Sunderland voted 61% leave.

So sad and scary.
Sad

jasjas1973 · 03/02/2019 13:20

Spinflight

Thats not what you originally said is it?

The EU have always agreed that an extension can be granted if the political situation changed ie PV GE or Revoke (subject to the eu27 agreeing)

But i agree with Moussemoose, the UK needs to go through Brexit, probably a no-deal one.
Be assured that Macron is talking to Airbus and PSA on moving production from UK to EU27 preferably France and the eu will step up the luring of FS to Europe.

Its great shame for all of us.

Spinflight · 03/02/2019 13:33

"Just because something is law doesn't mean Parliament can't and won't change the law."

Read the thread. There is neither time nor will for it.

"The EU have always agreed that an extension can be granted if the political situation changed ie PV GE or Revoke (subject to the eu27 agreeing)"

Revoke can't happen because it is the law that we leave.

And the government has to obey the law.

"Sounds like we would need to do one or the other."

No deal does not break the GFA.

Peregrina · 03/02/2019 13:51

Who are these people? It’s high time tax evaders were brought to book.

With May's Cabinet stuffed full of Millionaires I can't see any bringing to book any time in the near future.

Spinflight · 03/02/2019 13:57

"With May's Cabinet stuffed full of Millionaires I can't see any bringing to book any time in the near future."

With a few notable exceptions the wealth of the Labour benches probably exceeds the Tories.

Last time I checked 80% of the Labour MPs were millionaires.

We imported a lot more from the EU than just cars... Graft and corruption too.

Mistigri · 03/02/2019 13:59

*With a few notable exceptions the wealth of the Labour benches probably exceeds the Tories.

Last time I checked 80% of the Labour MPs were millionaires.*

If you want to make big statements like that you need to provide evidence, otherwise people might say you are making stuff up.

Mistigri · 03/02/2019 14:07

The legislation required for a no-deal Brexit hasn't yet passed and won't pass by 29/3, leaving the UK in a dangerous legislative vacuum. So no-deal or no-Brexit, we are in constitutional crisis territory.

We don't know for certain how A50 can be revoked - whether it requires a vote in parliament or whether it can be done by government - and there would most likely be court cases if the government did revoke without consulting parliament. But it's certainly possible even if unlikely.

Spinflight · 03/02/2019 14:20

"If you want to make big statements like that you need to provide evidence, otherwise people might say you are making stuff up."

Feel free to check the register of member interests, though suspect you'll find that MP's have made it rather more difficult to ascertain their true wealth.

"The legislation required for a no-deal Brexit hasn't yet passed"

It became law in June of last year.

MeganBacon · 03/02/2019 14:26

I think it won't be "stopped" now but there is a good chance it will be delayed which will keep options on the table, and the longer they are on the table, the more time there is for opinions to change/acts of God to intervene etc.

The advantage of the WM being so unpopular is that revoke will appeal to those MPs who a) hate the WM and b) don't want no deal, irrespective of whether they are leave or remain. Only the hard line Brexiteers dislike it (preferring no deal) but there are many more moderate Brexiteers (who only want a good deal). It allows us to restart the process. We should never have invoked A50 without a plan and this would reset the clock. The timing within the negotiations was abysmal for the UK. There is nothing in the Article that requires it to be invoked before other things are agreed. It also leaves open the possibility of reforming from within, to appeal to those Leavers who wanted to leave because they dislike the Commission.
I really don't see this as impossible. A long shot maybe, but not impossible.

Moussemoose · 03/02/2019 14:30

This from fullfact:

The second is that the country must have "taken the revocation decision in accordance with its constitutional requirements". In the case of the UK, this could mean that parliament would have to vote to authorise the government to revoke Article 50, just as they had to vote for the government to trigger Article 50 in the first place – although some reports suggest the government's legal advice is that they would not need parliament's approval

If Parliament can pass the legislation it can revoke.

Bills can go through Parliament in a little over 20 days if there is the will to do it.

@Spinflight
Revoke can't happen because it is the law that we leave

True, unless Parliament changes the law. I have read the thread but more importantly I know a bit about how the constitution works.

Moussemoose · 03/02/2019 14:40

Spinflight

Feel free to check the register of member interests, though suspect you'll find that MP's have made it rather more difficult to ascertain their true wealth

As you say it is difficult to ascertain true wealth and FOI requests about this are denied.

Therefore it is impossible to substantiate your claim that 80% of Labour MPs are millionaires. If you can back this up I would be very interested. Please provide a link and not just a vague reference to the 'register of members interests' which will not provided the information required.

Moussemoose · 03/02/2019 14:45

According to Business insider the wealthiest MPs are all Torys.

BI calculated the figure The rankings below have been calculated by adding yearly salaries to any additional payments declared on the register over the past 12 months

Spinflight · 03/02/2019 14:57

"Bills can go through Parliament in a little over 20 days if there is the will to do it."

But there is not, and the Leader of the House is a Brexiter.

6 weeks is the fastest I know of, though that was the Dangerous Dogs Act and had cross party support. Misguided support as it happened.

Any such legislation relating to Brexit would be tied up in committee for as long as necessary for it to fall.

Bear in mind that even some rather important legislation has been removed from the schedule to prevent hostile amendments.

SillySallySingsSongs · 03/02/2019 15:01

Or if Labour had come out against Brexit

If you know anything about the Labour front bench you will know that is not and wasn't going to happen.

Mistigri · 03/02/2019 15:05

If parliament really wanted to revoke then an A50 extension would most likely come first (some people think an extension is now inevitable).

I don't think anyone seriously believes, at this point, that revoke is politically feasible. But to claim that it is impossible is a big claim that doesn't stand much serious scrutiny.

Spinflight · 03/02/2019 15:17

"But to claim that it is impossible is a big claim that doesn't stand much serious scrutiny."

^ Read entire thread of serious scrutiny.

Mistigri · 03/02/2019 15:22

There is a big difference between what is politically feasible, and what is hypothetically possible (which is what the OP asked).

As things stand, I think most people would agree that revoke is highly unlikely (understatement).

noodlenosefraggle · 03/02/2019 15:22

I doubt revocation would be the end of this. There are some very nasty far right groups who would only become stronger if the decision was unilaterally revoked. UKIP is already tooling up with far right members, not to mention the usual suspects and the men on the Brexit rallies wearing SAS berets even though half of them have never been in the army. Like it or not, the majority of people voted Brexit. Places like Sunderland will be ripe for recruitment. We'll be in flames if we revoke. We may well be in flames after a no deal anyway due to lack of food and medicines, but I think the rise of the far right as a result of revocation will last far longer.

EssentialHummus · 03/02/2019 15:23

TM revokes and then resigns. That’s what I hope for in my more optimistic moments. JC goes off to man the barricades in Venezuela. And then somehow David Miliband turns up. (Sorry, details were never my strong suit.)

prettybird · 03/02/2019 15:28

The Queen dying might stop delay it.

But I think she might consider that taking duty a bit far Wink

Moussemoose · 03/02/2019 15:31

The question was is revoke possible?

Yes revoke is possible.

Will it happen.

Probably not.

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