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Brexit

Hypothetically, is there any combination of circumstance that could stop Brexit?

85 replies

Apileofballyhoo · 02/02/2019 22:42

Hypothetically but with some basis in reality, I mean. So not an alien invasion.

OP posts:
Maryjoyce · 03/02/2019 08:13

I hope not and hope we get what I voted for which is no deal

DippyAvocado · 03/02/2019 08:19

The only scenario I can think of would be if there was some terrible terrorist event like 9/11 or similar, or an act of aggression by Russia. Even then I think they would revoke with the intention of re-invoking later. I think a revoke would only be deemed widely acceptable if the public felt there was a major security risk.

I personally think Brexit is already a risk to our security. With Russian-US tension on the rise and Trump's demonstrable lack of interest in NATO or his Western allies, I think it's the height of insanity to be deliberately damaging relations with our European neighbours but I think people in Britain are so used to living in peace (N.Irish people who remember the troubles excepted) don't give security alliances a moment's thought.

HerLadySheep · 03/02/2019 08:55

Nobody voted for no deal, that wasn't on offer Mary, the Leave side promised the easiest deal in history because we held all the cards, you've been convinced you voted for no deal by more lies after the event, because they were wrong to start with

Maryjoyce · 03/02/2019 08:58

Nope your wrong.
We all voted with our own reasons I voted because I wanted to leave the EU shit totally so whether it was called no deal then it dosen’t matter a new name disent change anything,
I voted to leave and not to do deals to half stay in with no say at all but still pay and be under there control,
So yes I did vite for no deal

Mistigri · 03/02/2019 08:59

Hypothetically

Yeah obviously there is. We know that A50 can be revoked unilaterally by the govt simply advising the EU that they are calling it off. They don't need the approval of parliament.

Right now that looks very unlikely to happen, but many things have happened in the last couple of years that looked very unlikely. And the improbable is becoming the new normal, with headlines about evacuating Brenda in the event of no deal.

It's not hard to imagine a set of circumstances in which no-deal impacts start to ramp-up before 29th March. Very soon, companies which are shipping goods to and from the UK by sea container will have to take a view on whether they are prepared to risk shipping goods not knowing what import tariff will be applied when the goods arrive. And in the week or so before 29/3 you might start to see cross channel freight owners becoming nervous about having their lorries (and their contents) stuck in queues at Dover. If that coincides with panic buying and rising unrest it's not impossible to imagine a government doing an about turn.

So, hypothetically not impossible but who knows. UK politics has gone insane so you can't rule out any outcome.

Maryjoyce · 03/02/2019 09:01

You have no idea what people voted for as everyone had there own reasons and opinions since there was no actual options on the table bar leave or remain.
Look up leave in your dictionary it’s not complicated

Leave means “Depart from permanently “

I don’t think that can be confused with doing deals

Apileofballyhoo · 03/02/2019 09:03

Agree with what you said Dippy.

OP posts:
Mistigri · 03/02/2019 09:08

Leave means “Depart from permanently “

Norway has never been in the EU. So we could "leave permanently" and be like Norway :)

jasjas1973 · 03/02/2019 09:14

War - Russia invading Ukraine/a Baltic state or a serious US/China/Iran incident..... all perfectly feasible and would, at the very least, put brexit on hold.

Apart from that, it will happen.

jasjas1973 · 03/02/2019 09:16

Sorry, cross post DippyAvocado

PetShopGirl · 03/02/2019 09:29

I think there will be a ramping up over the next few weeks of messaging around the consequences of a no deal from businesses, gov and others. I have a hunch there has been careful planning to hold back the worst stuff to the 11th hr in the hope of a revocation.

And Northern Ireland. I just don't see (nor have been able to see all along) how any government could knowingly and in good conscience take us into the sorts of scenarios we could be facing following a no deal.

So if the withdrawal agreement doesn't go through we revoke I reckon (hope).

Peregrina · 03/02/2019 10:03

When you have bad cards, it’s better to play them well, rather than just bang on about how you’d prefer a different hand

So what have Davis, Johnson and Rees-Mogg been doing then, if not whinging about a bad hand, and in the case of two of them, walking away from the card table, and with the third, playing from behind another player's shoulder?

kalinkafoxtrot45 · 03/02/2019 10:06

A bad boy did it and ran away.

Unfortunately nobody has the balls to rally proper support for cancelling this shitshow. It transcends party loyalties and no major party leader has the guts to do this.

Peregrina · 03/02/2019 10:11

Some helpful definitions of Leave from the OED. As you can see, it's as complicated as to what Leave does mean.

VERB
1with object Go away from.

‘she left London on June 6’
no object ‘we were almost the last to leave’
‘the England team left for Pakistan on Monday’
More example sentencesSynonyms
1.1 Depart from permanently.
‘at the age of sixteen he left home’
1.2 Cease attending (a school or college) or working for (an organization)
‘she is leaving the BBC after 20 years’
More example sentencesSynonyms
2with object Allow or cause to remain.

‘the parts he disliked he would alter and the parts he didn't dislike he'd leave’
More example sentences
2.1be left Remain to be used or dealt with.
‘we've even got one of the Christmas puddings left over from last year’
with infinitive ‘a retired person with no mortgage left to pay’
More example sentences
2.2with object and adverbial of place Go away from a place without taking (someone or something)
‘we had not left any of our belongings behind’
figurative ‘women had been left behind in the struggle for pay equality’
More example sentencesSynonyms
2.3 Abandon (a spouse or partner)
‘her boyfriend left her for another woman’
More example sentencesSynonyms
2.4 Have as (a surviving relative) after one's death.
‘he leaves a wife and three children’
More example sentences
2.5 Bequeath (property) to a person or other beneficiary by a will.
‘he left £500 to the National Asthma Campaign’
with two objects ‘Cornelius had left her fifty pounds a year for life’
Synonyms
3with object and adverbial or complement Cause (someone or something) to be in a particular state or position.

‘he'll leave you in no doubt about what he thinks’
‘I'll leave the door open’
‘the children were left with feelings of loss’
More example sentences
3.1with object and infinitive Let (someone) do or deal with something without offering help or assistance.
‘infected people are often rejected by family and friends, leaving them to face this chronic condition alone’
More example sentencesSynonyms
3.2with object Cause to remain as a trace or record.
‘dark fruit that would leave purple stains on the table napkins’
figurative ‘they leave the impression that they can be bullied’
More example sentencesSynonyms
3.3with object Deposit or entrust to be kept, collected, or attended to.
‘she left a note for me’
More example sentences
3.4leave something towith object Entrust a decision, choice, or action to (someone else, especially someone considered better qualified)
‘the choice of which link to take is generally left up to the reader’
More example sentences

Spinflight · 03/02/2019 10:37

"@Spinflight is incorrect. It wouldn't take 30 days to repeal the WA. "

Not just the WA... Gina Miller's legislation requiring Art50 specified that we left after 2 years too.

As for your assertion, I personally don't know of any repeal of a law or new law which has managed to pass through both houses within 30 sitting days... Suspect early January would have been the hard cut off point. And very unlikely even at that stage.

And we can't even assume the best of intentions or unanimity as the government is opposed and so are large numbers of MP's who could merely obfuscate and block.

"I'm so angry right now I'm even glad that it's Leavers who will suffer most (as they live in harder hit areas)."

Nice....

But merely another assertion which I find somewhat wanting. If anything I'd imagine the small changes in the rate of changes that Brexit will bring about will likely favour the once great trading cities on the West coast rather than London.

Spinflight · 03/02/2019 10:43

"Yeah obviously there is. We know that A50 can be revoked unilaterally by the govt simply advising the EU that they are calling it off. They don't need the approval of parliament."

Nope...

Parliament makes the law, and the law of the land as clearly defined in the Withdrawal Act is that the European communities act is repealed on 29th of March.

The government by the way has to follow the law.

Now.... Don't get me wrong there are an awful lot of MP's who are pretending they don't know this... But the WA was passed with a majority of 490? So.... consider some might be telling half truths and fibs about their involvement.

Mistigri · 03/02/2019 10:44

There is no outcome except an extension of A50 that leaves the UK legislatively ready for whatever happens on 29th March. Revoke or no-deal both lead to a constitutional crisis. I don't think this is a good argument that revoke is not possible.

It does not look likely, from a political point of view - an extension is much, much more likely. But there are going to be numerous unforeseen events between now and 29/3 and anyone who says that revoke is "impossible" is just spinning.

I think the most likely path to "no Brexit" is more gradual. Remember when the Withdrawal Agreement had to be agreed by the end of October? Then by November ... then by Christmas? Once something has been postponed once it gets much easier to postpone it again. So A50 gets extended, then extended again, then again .... and eventually Brexit gets shelved until after the next GE.

chipsnsauce · 03/02/2019 10:54

I'm hoping Nicola Sturgeon comes up with something that'll pull us Scots out of this mess!! 

Tanith · 03/02/2019 11:03

I’m glad they’ve stopped wittering on about “The Will Of The People” at long last.

They have no idea what is the will of the people because they’ve made no attempt to find out. They’ve simply decided what they want.

If “No Deal” is the default, and looking increasingly the most likely, what’s to lose by having a People’s Vote?
I think we know the answer to that. The real elite, who have invested against the UK and are desperate to avoid all that tax evasion legislation, might find themselves ruined.

One of the real eye-openers to me has been just how corrupt the UK now is and how very little say any of us ordinary people have, despite the lauding of our having the vote.
Whatever happened to honesty, decency and integrity?

Spinflight · 03/02/2019 11:34

"There is no outcome except an extension of A50 that leaves the UK legislatively ready for whatever happens on 29th March."

Including an extension to Art50!

For a start the ECJ said that it could only be extended if we've changed our minds.

But the LAW says that we leave on the 29th of March. And only statute can overide statute. And there is neither the time nor the will to change it.

Barring the EU caving in on everything they have said is non negotiable no deal is an absolute certainty.

Then again I've said so for more than 2 years.

twofingerstoEverything · 03/02/2019 11:46

Leave means “Depart from permanently"

So, every morning when you leave your house, you are 'departing from [it] permanently'? When you 'leave' your local supermarket after completing your shopping, you are never going back? Never going back to work after 'leaving' at 5 o clock? What a moronic definition.

PetShopGirl · 03/02/2019 11:53

I have wondered for a while whether at some point the Ministerial Code of Conduct/Seven Principles of Public Life could get drawn into all this and used as justification for pulling us back from the cliff edge. Ministers surely should not knowingly go ahead with something which all the evidence suggests will be very bad for the country they serve.

Spinflight · 03/02/2019 12:03

"the Ministerial Code of Conduct"

That's actually rather likely but.... against the civil servants who undermined the Ministers.

PetShopGirl · 03/02/2019 12:21

Okay... got through the first few minutes of that and gave up after the third mention of 'deep state'.

All I can say is that as a civil servant I only wish our ministers were so compliant! 😂

jasjas1973 · 03/02/2019 12:27

For a start the ECJ said that it could only be extended if we've changed our minds

The ECJ has said no such thing - they stated we could revoke A50 unilaterally, their job is to interpret EU law in a dispute, not to make stuff up.

Keep it accurate if you are going to pontificate with such authority.

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