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Brexit

Westminstenders: Waiting for Sanity

980 replies

RedToothBrush · 01/02/2019 15:40

We could be waiting a long time, but that's what we have to wait for as that's what the EU is waiting for.

The EU has requested we expand on our plans for 'alternative arrangements' with regard to the backstop.

We need to do so before the next HoC vote on 14th Feb. The EU see no point in shifting their position before than. And the UK will struggle to provide the info the EU want before then. So there is now some doubt as to whether the vote will go ahead as planned.

About a third of the Cabinet now believe that Brexit will have to be delayed due to legislation not being ready for exit date. However we don't have power over this and we might still exit without it.

There is no Brexit related business next week in the HoC to prevent pesky amendments. The recess has been cancelled but MPs have been told its OK to go on their ski holidays so it's just a PR stunt.

Meanwhile No Deal is in full effect as businesses trigger their exit strategy in the absence of certainty. No Deal is reality for many even if we do have a last minute deal...

We are all about to get poorer. As that's what we voted for.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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BigChocFrenzy · 02/02/2019 16:05

No Deal though, probably will be ... well, a car crash

Hazardswans · 02/02/2019 16:05

mobile.twitter.com/J_amesp/status/1091627862858366976

James Patrick's Malware For Humans is out on YouTube tomo for anyone interested.

Westminstenders: Waiting for Sanity
Ta1kinPeace · 02/02/2019 16:10

Big firms may well only close up shop when their next round of retooling for new models is due.
Thing is that capital investment has plummeted over the past two years.
I suspect the retooling dates for a lot of companies are second quarter of this year Sad

ElenadeClermont · 02/02/2019 16:21

The Japanese carmaker will say next week that it is abandoning plans to build the X-Trail in Sunderland, Sky News learns.

news.sky.com/story/nissan-casts-further-gloom-on-car-industry-with-x-trail-blow-11625885

IalwayswantedtobeBeth · 02/02/2019 16:23

Not posting but watching gratefully.

RedToothBrush · 02/02/2019 16:38

Paul daly @ pauldalyesq
We need to talk about the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement Implementation) Bill.

Behind the scenes a constitutional outrage is brewing quietly.

THREAD

The "WAIB" will be legislation of the highest legal, political and constitutional significance.

It exists in draft (so I'm told). It has been shown to some initiates (think tankers, academics).

But it has not been published.

As far as the world at large is concerned the WAIB sits quietly in a dusty drawer or deep in Windows Explorer on a DExEU machine.

Britain cannot leave the EU with a deal until this legislation is passed.

Let that sink in.

For all the focus on the meaningful vote, a vote approving the Withdrawal Agreement is only one of the pre-conditions for ratification.

The other is that the WAIB must be passed.

This is all set out in the Withdrawal Act, s13.

Let me repeat: no deal can be concluded until the WAIB has been passed by the House of Commons and the House of Lords and received Royal Assent.

Will this be a straightforward process? Well....

The WAIB has to do at least 4 things:

  1. provide for payment of the "divorce bill" negotiated with the EU;
  1. provide for the protection of citizens' rights;
  1. provide for the continuing supremacy of EU law during the transition period;
  1. and consent to remaining subject to the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice for the transition period (and longer in the case of citizens' rights)

To begin with, a question. Will the Eurosceptics in the House of Commons, especially Tories like Bone, Jenkin, and Lilley, who have waged guerrilla warfare against the EU for decades, simply roll over and have their tummies tickled when this Bill is introduced?

In light of your answer to this question, how realistic do you think it is that the PM will (a) secure a majority for her withdrawal agreement and (b) pass the WAIB before March 29?

If she cannot, there will be a no deal Brexit, or a delay.

Whatever about the political difficulties of convincing a majority of MPs to pass this legislation, it will be of extraordinary constitutional significance.

Parliament will be asked to provide entrenchment for citizens' rights and the supremacy of EU law.

Supremacy has been done before (in the European Communities Act 1972), but courts and scholars have disagreed over why the ECA 1972 was successful in this regard.

Entrenchment has not been done before

Many distinguished commentators have argued that because Parliament is sovereign, it can't bind itself to (say) not remove the rights of EU citizens in the future.

Others disagree. These are deep constitutional waters.

It is all about what 'taking back control' really means.

There is little doubt that many MPs, and a great number of the House of Lords, will want to scrutinise legislation of such constitutional novelty extremely closely.

Engaged members of the public will rightly want to have a say too -- for instance, the businesses who will have to comply with EU law during transition and the EU nationals whose rights are to be protected.

As things stand, however, this legislation is set to be rammed through between now and the end of March.

The scrutiny that this politically, legally and constitutionally significant legislation deserves would require a delay beyond March 29.

Indeed, if the government tries and fails to ram this through before March 29, we face a no deal Brexit by default, by automatic operation of law, as the clock ticks remorselessly down.

Remember: no WAIB = no ratification. See Withdrawal Act, s13

It is (in my view) a constitutional outrage that the WAIB has not been published in draft form, for public pre-legislative scrutiny by parliamentary committees, MPs, civil society, journalists and members of the public.

Much less important pieces of legislation have been published in draft.

This should be too.

Of course, publication at this stage would prompt significant political backlash. Those who dislike the supremacy of EU law and the Court of Justice will be up in arms.

But they are going to be up in arms whenever this legislation is introduced.

It might be better to have the crisis now, not at five minutes to midnight.

ENDS

OP posts:
Peregrina · 02/02/2019 16:59

I wondered if the Nissan announcement would be the straw which breaks the camels back - thinking of all those jubilant people in Sunderland when the results were announced.

BigChocFrenzy · 02/02/2019 17:02

Probably get someone saying his dad didn't give in to the Japanese Army and neither will he

GD12 · 02/02/2019 17:06

Nothing will be the straw that breaks the camels back, it's beyond that now, Brexit is a Davidian like death cult.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 02/02/2019 17:06

Red is this what the HoL were talking about then?
Seems like a magical cure, like the idea of declaring the ref advisory at the last minute or something... I can't see how they would enact it without the violence again. Mind you violence every which way whatever happens.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 02/02/2019 17:08

I've got 2 leavers on FB posting the "I am not afraid of a No Deal Brexit despite the media scaremongering. Share if you agree!" memes. Both have been shared x2.
Do they really think the supermarkets and Army would be "scaremongering"?

BigChocFrenzy · 02/02/2019 17:09

Just makes No Deal ever more likely

We need to keep reminding people every day:

No Deal is what happens automatically if we don't choose something else

BigChocFrenzy · 02/02/2019 17:19

It as always clear that May didn't just have to get the WA passed, but also the legislation to implement its provisions
hence a WA passed by just a couple of votes is potentially very dangerous.

However, I'm not sure about the "constitutional outrage"
It has always been the case that no govt can bind its successors
So any govt could theoretically decide to leave e.g. NATO, the UN, the EHRC ..... and to repeal any treaties signed

However, Parliaments have rarely reversed international agreements signed by their predecessors
particularly not when containing provisions that other countries would object to losing

e.g. the Tories in the 1980s & 1990s fought furiously against the Social Chapter and secured an opt out from it
but iirc Blair dropped the optout and signed up to the Social Chaper, but the Tories since 2010 have just accepted this

BigChocFrenzy · 02/02/2019 17:22

Other countries have been content to accept this
since any country - not just the UK - can in practice withdraw from any treaty they no longer support
Provided they are prepareed to suffer the consequences

In the case of the UK, this would mean becoming an international pariah / laughing stock and suffering economic meltdown

DGRossetti · 02/02/2019 17:24

It helps to have a great big fuck off majority, if you intend going around fiddling with international treaties. After all, a government with a majority of 200+ in the UK is pretty much inviolate, and would be going into negotiations with the other parties knowing that it's very much what the country wants.

It's not so easy when you have no majority at all, and need to rely on lunatic fringe parties to keep you in power.

TheElementsSong · 02/02/2019 17:27

I don't think any announcement from Nissan, or any other company, will have an effect on the Faithful.

PestymcPestFace · 02/02/2019 17:29

A glorious piece of German satire (very sweary)
www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=278&v=HMQkV5cTuoY

MarmotMorning · 02/02/2019 17:36

Regards the WAIB info posted by RTB......

If the Withdrawal agreement is passed wouldn't the EU agree an extension to get the WAIB through?

derxa · 02/02/2019 17:40

,

GD12 · 02/02/2019 17:41

Marmot morning, yes I think the EU would agree an extension if the WA was passed.

UnnecessaryFennel · 02/02/2019 17:45

Pesty that made me laugh, and feel incredibly sad. Brilliantly done.

And belated PMK.

BigChocFrenzy · 02/02/2019 17:47

No problem getting an extension for that

problem is if the WA is only passed by a couple of votes, the batshitters might still try to derail things by trying to block the implementation legislation

Destiel · 02/02/2019 17:48

For true beleavers this has become a religion.

They feel vindicated since the leave vote in their racism, xenophobia, sense of betrayal, the awful thought that "others" are doing better than them...

Because if when leave turns to shit for them and their families it wont be their fault. Oh no.

It'll be the fault of remainers who simply didn't beleave hard enough.

There is no going back from this.

Delay, extension, revoke (ha!)...these people have been radicalised.

Apileofballyhoo · 02/02/2019 17:59

www.rte.ie/news/world/2019/0202/1027100-russia-missile-treaty/

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Russia was suspending its participation in a key Cold War-era missile treaty in a mirror response to a US move the day before.

Moscow and Washington have long accused the other of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces agreement, which was signed in 1987 and resolved a crisis over Soviet missiles.

US President Donald Trump last year announced plans to withdraw unless Russia fulfilled its obligations.

"Our American partners have announced they are suspending their participation in the deal, and we are also suspending our participation," Mr Putin said of the agreement, following a US deadline for cooperation.

Mr Putin said during a televised meeting with foreign and defence ministers Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Shoigu that Russia would no longer initiate talks with the US on disarmament.

The deal addressed Soviet nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles targeting Western capitals, but put no restrictions on other major military actors such as China.

Mr Trump said on Friday that Washington was starting a process to withdraw from the agreement in six months.

The US in December gave Moscow a 60-day deadline to dismantle missiles it said breached the agreement.

But Moscow has insisted the disputed 9M729 missile is allowed under the treaty.

Bigchoc, what's the view from Germany? I was surprised how pro Russia the BBC News television report seemed. The text in the link below doesn't say much about China but the video seems to be saying the US are pulling out because of China rather than anything to do with Russian non- compliance.

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47101429ttps:edition-

m.cnn.com/2019/02/02/europe/russia-inf-treaty-intl/index.html?r=https%3A%2F%2Fedition.cnn.com%2Fworld%3Fno-st%3D9999999999

Apileofballyhoo · 02/02/2019 18:03

Delay, extension, revoke (ha!)...these people have been radicalised.

Agree, Destiel.

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