Westminstenders: Waiting for Sanity

[RedToothBrush]

We could be waiting a long time, but that's what we have to wait for as that's what the EU is waiting for.

The EU has requested we expand on our plans for 'alternative arrangements' with regard to the backstop.

We need to do so before the next HoC vote on 14th Feb. The EU see no point in shifting their position before than. And the UK will struggle to provide the info the EU want before then. So there is now some doubt as to whether the vote will go ahead as planned.

About a third of the Cabinet now believe that Brexit will have to be delayed due to legislation not being ready for exit date. However we don't have power over this and we might still exit without it.

There is no Brexit related business next week in the HoC to prevent pesky amendments. The recess has been cancelled but MPs have been told its OK to go on their ski holidays so it's just a PR stunt.

Meanwhile No Deal is in full effect as businesses trigger their exit strategy in the absence of certainty. No Deal is reality for many even if we do have a last minute deal...

We are all about to get poorer. As that's what we voted for.

UK accounts

I recommend before Brexit taking out enough cash for 3 weeks expenses if you can and keeping it very safe.
If you have stockpiled groceries & meds, that cash should keep you in petrol & incidentals.

Why ?

• It is just possible that, despite precautions, there is a run on a British bank
  ==> check you only have the guarnteed sum of 75k total in any one banking group (not just in an account or in a particular bank)

• Also, if Sterling really crashes, or banking systems can't cope with changed transactions, that cash withdrawals are restricted by the banks ot the govt

• During civil disorder, you might not want to go out to a cash machine

Foreign accounts

My German bank manager and the specialist who runs my brokerage accounts say my accounts naturally remain safe - from their side, under EU law - after Brexit, even if I returned to the UK.

What may happen, though is that if you try to transfer money from a UK bank after Brexit, there might be some delay if the UK end is in chaos.
however, that would be the case with a US bank too: it's the UK end that might be cut off from the world for a few weeks.

Again, I would be concerned about payments from Germany to UK might be delayed
hence why I recommend a cash buffer

A bank can only tell you what their contingency planning is, not whether the Uk itself may be cut off from normal banking & transfers for a few weeks

Thank you EVERYBODY for the lovely thoughts.
In the omnishambles of the real world its nice to know that my imaginary friends are good people.
FWIW my cousin's death was sudden and unexpected but nothing violent. Still awful for her close family.
I went for a lovely walk in the sunshine today and know that life has to go on.

I find it interesting that whenever the TV news do VoxPops they choose older leave supporters.
Odd that the voices of the young are deliberately kept off the airwaves.

Is there some sort of pact among the TV companies to NOT show how incredibly angry a huge proportion of the population are about the fact that a bunch of rich Tories are selling their future down the river?
aided and abetted by the idiot Corbyn

Bigchoc thanks for the really useful advice re money. I’ve been worrying about how much cash to keep around the house.

I’ve asked about premium binds before but with all this talk about how things could potentially spiral is anyone else who has them worrying about whether to cash them in? I may be getting totally paranoid but I’m really starting to worry about having the bulk of my savings entrusted to the government. Could they confiscate it if things got really bad? Prepared (or rather, hoping) to be told I’m crazy. I’ll just fashion myself a tin foil hat and sit quietly in the corner...

Btw - I think I’m right in saying the protected amount in any one banking group is now £85K, double for a joint account.

Ta1kinPeace I’m so sorry, I haven’t kept up properly with the last couple of threads. I must have missed your post about your cousin.

I'd also missed the story about your cousin Ta1kinPeace . to her family and you.

It certainly puts things in perspective. Carpe Diem

Babooshka
I cannot see how there would be a financial meltdown.
Sterling Bank deposits will be worth something no matter what.
The pound will drop severely if there is no deal
but cashpoints and electronic banking will carry on.

Remember that no UK bank has gone bust since the early 1970's
and even when ING were bought for £1, depositors funds were entirely safe.

Just reading over the TTIP articles again and, although the wording was all about "secretive" deals (which were vetoed anyway) it now looks like we have simply sped up the process by leaving - so here's a prediction for the next couple of years TTIP

.

Ta1k in Peace The Times today has interviews with a couple of younger leave voters in Grimethorpe - women in their 30s, I guess, so not very youthful - but young to me! Interestingly, one of them is now much less enthusiastic about Leave. I am sorry about your cousin - I hope you have happy memories as some small comfort.

Missbel
Lots of interviews with leave voters
but I never see any with the 48%
or with kids who have turned 18 since the vote to ask what they think
funny that ....

and thank you

PMK

Britain has never jumped off a cliff before in modern times
So, previous performance is no guidance

People in Cyprus - an EU country - taught us that:
their bank accounts were frozen, only tiny daily withdrawal limit, then all savings above a certain amount confiscated, their private money used to stop the banks collapsing

Family experiences, living in a country that they thought OK, but suddenly collapsed into chaos
was that banks were not immune and they sometimes could not access their accounts

So, small precautions like for grocery prepping:
Cash for 3 weeks budget is what I would do if still in the UK
Cash can solve many problems, but you can be stuck without it.

Make sure you don't have more than 75k TOTAL with any banking group, not just with any single bank, or in any account.

Was contemplating taking some cash out... Thanks, think I will now.

True, the Cypriot situation was awful
but I'm not sure how comparable it is with the UK
and almost all of the confiscated money was dodgy Russian dosh that should never have been in EU banks in the first place

@faisalislam
Our City Editor ⁦*@MarkKleinmanSky*⁩ understands Nissan in Sunderland is about to pull plans to produce X-trail, announced to much Government fanfare, and after a Business Dept letter of “support and assurances” four months after Brexit vote in Oct 16

Nope, most of the dodgy Russian dosh was withdrawn in time, or even afterwards from London despite the supposed freeze

Those who lost were often ordinary mc folk who had
e.g. just sold a house
or just taken out a loan for a house or for a uni course, but the whole lot was confiscated - and they still had to pay back the loan

The sheer amounts of money that a few remaining Russian billionaires could lose came to a lot
but the actual numbers of people who had money confiscated were mostly ordinary folk.

Also, it was 100% ordinary folk who suffered when the cash machines would only allow 25 Euros every few days
No Russian billionaires went short of cash to buy food or petrol

Fair enough.
If it gets to late March I'll make sure I have some cash to hand

Faisal Islam@faisalislam

The French and the Italians maintained tariffs on the first Bluebirds produced at Sunderland, of course, claiming the UK plant was a Japanese Trojan horse.
But then Mrs T threatened to take them to the ... errrr ... European Court of Justice, and they backed down
. & rest history.

Not saying only factor - and it will be interesting to see if production is retained in Japan or moved elsewhere in EU,
but entire existence of Sunderland plant in 1980s was as a way to get Nissan Bluebird into European markets tariff free from within the then EEC....

currently X-trail only made in Japan, & plan announced after Govt letter was here too.

As result of EU-Japan FTA which came in to force Thurs, those Xtrails will enter EU market directly from Japan with 0 tariff.

Vs risk of 10% tariff under WTO/ No Deal Brexit from Sunderland

I've been waiting for that Nissan announcement.

Expect Toyota to follow suit.

I wonder if that Nissan decision (and the ones to come in the next few hours from the other car makers) will shock our politicians into doing the right thing

forlorn hope

I've given up hope that anything will shock them into doing the right thing. Plenty of them won't care and the ones that do care are (mainly) weaselly cowards.

German commentators have rehashed Cyprus, but noone sure what will happen
It's just prepping, as for groceries

We might find that all most people notice is higher prices - and only then after a few months -
plus of course less fresh fruit & veg and more expensive foreign holidays.
Unemployment rise could be gradual.

The most serious effects will be over the next couple of years, as the Uk trade deficit rockets
Big firms may well only close up shop when their next round of retooling for new models is due.

If it's all gradual enough, the Tories can claim a good Brexit, say until a 2021 GE
after which most people may have forgotten whose fault it all was.