Westminstenders: Waiting for Sanity

[RedToothBrush]

We could be waiting a long time, but that's what we have to wait for as that's what the EU is waiting for.

The EU has requested we expand on our plans for 'alternative arrangements' with regard to the backstop.

We need to do so before the next HoC vote on 14th Feb. The EU see no point in shifting their position before than. And the UK will struggle to provide the info the EU want before then. So there is now some doubt as to whether the vote will go ahead as planned.

About a third of the Cabinet now believe that Brexit will have to be delayed due to legislation not being ready for exit date. However we don't have power over this and we might still exit without it.

There is no Brexit related business next week in the HoC to prevent pesky amendments. The recess has been cancelled but MPs have been told its OK to go on their ski holidays so it's just a PR stunt.

Meanwhile No Deal is in full effect as businesses trigger their exit strategy in the absence of certainty. No Deal is reality for many even if we do have a last minute deal...

We are all about to get poorer. As that's what we voted for.

IDS filmed on Sky News repeating to Faisal Islam, "All will become clear at some point"

And people wonder why Nissan's statement included the obvious point that Brexit uncertainty was not helping

Ponders to self just exactly when "at some point" will be?

Yes, lots of literature , missclimpson and mistigri but we had to do lots of French conversation with French assistantes and I also spent a month living with a French family. By the time I left school I could pass as a French first language speaker - but Belgian or Swiss, not French! Sadly, I've now forgotten a lot of it and sound very English...

On a more serious note, I'm appalled and ashamed reading about the resumed deportation of Windrush descendants. What kind of country have we become?

DGR - by short, I mean short - 3 months or less (so before the new EU Parliament sits). So long enough to employ a few more customs officers, build a wee bit more infrastructure and, probably most importantly, issue more of the contingency notices about No Deal arrangements.

I find it telling that the EU, in issuing its contingency notices, is saying that it is no longer bothering to consulting with the UK on these arrangements. This is what it will be doing - thole it. In most cases, they are pretty generous - eg the visa arrangements and the flights.

All will become clear at some point

When the Pound crashes?
When firms start cutting back or stop investing?
When you lose your job?
When you can't buy groceries?
When you can't afford to travel?
When rioting starts?
When medicine runs out?
When taxes rise?
When benefits & funding to the NHS & schools get slashed?
When you can't sell your house?
When the cost of borrowing is too high to buy a house?
When your Grandchildren stop speaking to you?

QueenofThorns thank you! At least this means I can still visit. Which I will need to do now that I have learned my mum definitely does have dementia. It never rains...

Dan @ dnrhds
Things the UK can't deal with:
Two inches of snow
Heat over 25 degrees
Drones
KFC running out of chicken
A woman playing The Doctor
Supermarkets closing for Christmas Day
Vegan sausage rolls from Greggs

Things the UK thinks it can deal with:
A World War
A No-Deal Brexit

DGR - by short, I mean short - 3 months or less (so before the new EU Parliament sits). So long enough to employ a few more customs officers, build a wee bit more infrastructure and, probably most importantly, issue more of the contingency notices about No Deal arrangements.

Well, I'm not convinced. I'm not claiming to have any mystical inside track on EU thinking. I just know it's pragmatic, transparent, and grown up. There's a great danger if you only drink in UK reporting of thinking Brexit is some sort of wheeze with both sides trying to outplay one another. It's not. It's arguably the greatest test the EU has faced - certainly since it became the EU. It's therefore being taken very seriously, and viewed holistically. Which is why I am suspecting the EU would calculate that the short term pain of no deal on the 30th is best viewed as an investment in the next 30 years. I've already thought that there will be some voices in the EU that are suggesting a no-deal Brexit is one of the best tests of the EUs abilities you could wish for excepting a real war. Again short term pain outweighed by long term gain.

Ultimately it all hinges on what the UK can cook up and deliver back to Brussels which doesn't involve reopening negotiations. If the UK can pull it off - great. Let's crack on. If not ... well no extension was probably the right decision.

'@steve_hawkes
EXCL HMRC has decided to wave EU goods through in a No Deal - to keep trade moving. No checks at 20 ports. Will last for a "temporary" period'

Yep, they're definitely anticipating having everything under control...

So it was an £80 million bung to Nissan in the "secret letter" back in 2016?

Greg Clark also pledged on behalf of the government in the letter to ensure manufacturers’ “ability to export to and from the EU is not adversely affected by the UK’s future relationship with the EU”.

The letter, which the government has repeatedly refused to release, promised financial support of about £80m towards Nissan’s investments at the site in return for the expansion of production.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/04/government-letter-to-nissan-reveals-brexit-promise-to-carmarkers?CMP=share_btn_tw

HMRC has decided to wave EU goods through in a No Deal - to keep trade moving. No checks at 20 ports.

I wonder what naughty items have already been ordered and packed ?

Ooo best pack some contraband then.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3499063-Westminstenders-Its-oh-so-quiet

EXCL HMRC has decided to wave EU goods through in a No Deal - to keep trade moving. No checks at 20 ports. Will last for a "temporary" period'

That's not what the announcement I've read says! Maybe this is something else though?

As I read it they've just decided to allow goods through without importers having to complete a customs declaration in advance. That's not the same as waving all EU goods through.

www.gov.uk/government/news/hm-revenue-and-customs-simplifies-importing-from-the-eu-as-part-of-no-deal-preparation

Well thast £80 million more for the NHS now, isn't it ?

Leaving the EU with a deal remains the government’s top priority. This has not changed. However, a responsible government must plan for every eventuality, including a no deal scenario. Businesses and citizens should ensure they are similarly prepared for leaving the EU.

Really? They’ve just realised this? I wonder which ‘responsible’ government they’re referring to...

{ EU itself can get more of its ducks in a row in preparation for No Deal}

Been watching too much historical war stuff and read 'ducks' as 'tanks'.

MissClimpson I'm also puzzled by British expats only now thinking of changing licences.
When I first worked here, we were told to change them within 3 months of registering as residents

I can't remember if anyone checked that we did, but I still have my German licence - from back when I had working eyes - as I rarely drove in England

However, maybe after the SIngle Market came in, it was no longer necessary for EU citizens to change them

mother The UK govt is clueless about expats - an indication of how hopelessly unprepared they are for everything-
Unfortunately this means that the Foreign Office are clueless too - or still recovering from Boris and now Hunt.
They have not said anything useful since I've been here

I found the German officials much more helpful towards expats

• the FO has traditionally regarded expats as a nuisance and thinks itself too grand to bother with any non-royal Brit. Have the Belgian govt said anything ? You could ask the local govt offices - they are very sympathetic here.

I suggest your OH checks whether he counts as a resident or a business visitor, which usually depends on where he pays his income tax - in 2019 will he spend more days in Belgium or in the UK ?

Check the Belgium rules on licences for non-EU residents / visitors
If he has an RHD car, check if that is still allowed
He also needs to request his insurance company to send him documenttion that specifically says he is insured in Belgium

Check he has health insurance to cover him in Belgium because EHIC may not work after No Deal

If he remains resident in Belgium, he can continue to work there until the end of 2020, according to the Belgian govt:

www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/politics/13956/british-people-can-continue-to-work-in-belgium-until-the-end-of-2020

BigChoc you didn't have to change the licence unless you committed a driving offence and got points. We both had the photocard licences, I lost mine and replaced it with a French one and DH's went out of date. You can't renew a UK one if you don't live in the UK so people should have been changing when the date ran out (to do with the photo I think). Some may still have the old paper licences that don't go out of date.

My understanding is that HMRC announcement means "waving goods through" in the literal sense of avoiding checks on entry,
to avoid queue buildup and logjammed ports

BUT
they are trusting that all firms will be honest, declare in full and pay the duty within 1 month

I can believe the big firms will do this - not worth their while to break the law
but I have no idea how many small firms there are who might fudge things

or indeed how many intentionally dishonest people would apply for this TSP (Transitional Simplified Procedures)
with no intention of being honest - I would hope there are checks to weed out known crooks or unknowns, but I don't know how effective these will be given it's a new system starting under time pressure.

If I were smuggling weapons / drugs / people / counterfeit goods ... I might think of this as a good time to try my luck

Missclimpson In Germany, we were told to change the licence to a German one within 3 months
I remember I was a month late because I hadn't realised this until another Brit told me
So I got a finger-wagging from the local office when I went to do this
This was late 80s though, so I cn believe the system has changed since

I've never committed a traffic offence

We did ours around 2008 I think.

I would hope there are checks to weed out known crooks or unknowns,

They'd rely on pooled data from the UK and EU.

Oh, look:

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/02/04/whitehall_data_flows_brexit/

Senior government officials have reportedly been warned that public bodies are not prepared for the implications on crucial data transfers if the UK leaves the European Union without a deal.

According to The Times, three-quarters of 63 public bodies surveyed between October and December said they rely on data stored or processed in the European Union.

(contd)

@PippaCrerar
'More Brexit drama: Lord Trimble has announced that he is planning to take the British Government to court over the backstop - claiming the withdrawal agreement breaches the terms of the Good Friday Agreement.'

Would this be in order to try and engineer a No Deal situation? My brain is friend at this point.

My brain is 'fried' and clearly not much of a friend anymore.

Something we're losing when we've hardly had a chance to enjoy it

• see interactively the companies near you who will miss out on the EU-Japan trade deal opportunities:

Daniel Rosario@danielrosarioEU

The EU-Japan trade agreement is in force since 00:00 (feb 1).
Check out on this interactive map what companies in your town are already exporting to Japan

ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/eu-japan-economic-partnership-agreement/eu-japan-in-your-town/