Businesses that will suffer in the event of a post Brexit recession, feel free to add to the list

[frumpety]

I was thinking today as I handed over money to our window cleaner, if DH lost his job what would we cut back on and how that might impact little businesses. So I thought I would start a list

Estate agents - people won't want to sell if they don't need to, potential for negative equity.

Trades related to house building and home improvement, if you have to tighten your purse strings you will live with that kitchen/bathroom/lack of space.

Hair and beauty

Gym membership/personal trainers

Private podiatry/sports massage/ physio/ therapy etc

Dog walkers

Nursery/childminders

Take away's /restaurants / pubs / clubs

Window cleaners

Car valeters

Holiday companies - areas which rely on tourism

Upper end food and drink producers, if you are made redundant that bottle of Co-ops own gin will hit the spot as well as a posh one ! £4 in Morrisons buys you a snazzy travel mug to make your own coffee in

Disclaimer : DH and I actually only use a window cleaner from the list.

Just before the recession in 2008 I worked at Fat Face. We had a good result for 2007 and the CEO made a pretty smug speech about the middle classes and how they were untouchable in times of economic hardship, and that basically as a company that aimed itself at the middle class family they were also untouchable.

Then the recession hit. Middle classes were hit very hard due to the negative equity in property. So to protect themselves the first thing to cut back on was retail spending.

I mean that sweatshirt from last year that looks remarkably like the one on offer this year so why bother buying another if its not essential, right?
Sales plummeted through the floor.

When sales plummet in retail the reaction is instantaneous - its not just store staff reduced in numbers/lower hours. Warehouse/DC staff, transportation companies, buying and merchandising teams all get reviewed and cut back, then with no budget for marketing there's no need for a big marketing team, and with stores closing rather than expanding there's no need for a store development team, overall then there's less people so the HR department can be trimmed etc etc and so it goes.

So I think the "non essential" retail companies - high end high street fashion, department stores etc will be hit badly as people go into the year with spending caution, as they did during the last recession.

I work in the construction industry but in the “particularly posh” side of the spectrum and I see it possibly going two ways....on one side, most of what I do is based on importing stuff from the EU, and skills from EU people (not just builders, also architects, engineers etc). There’s NO REPLACING them, the U.K. simply doesn’t have the know-how, the universities, the tradition, the skills. In the short term we could import from China but it’s not the same quality and clients know it and it does require doing loads more quality checks to get what you really want. In the long term, we somehow must try to persuade british kids that a career in construction is worth having, but the truth is that most professions in construction haven’t the same glamour/appeal/money than other jobs. In EU it’s a much more reputable profession, engineers are generally respected as top professionals....
The only possible good (?) thing of a devalued pound is that investors might keep on investing in the (London) market, but that’s normally if it’s perceived as a stable investment, and I don’t think that’d really the case now. Plus that really would not help “normal”’people who need housing, anyway.
Most construction sites I see are full of EU builders and only the managers are British, but I know a couple of them that are firm Brexiteers. They don’t mind being left with nobody to manage, it seems...