Businesses that will suffer in the event of a post Brexit recession, feel free to add to the list

[frumpety]

I was thinking today as I handed over money to our window cleaner, if DH lost his job what would we cut back on and how that might impact little businesses. So I thought I would start a list

Estate agents - people won't want to sell if they don't need to, potential for negative equity.

Trades related to house building and home improvement, if you have to tighten your purse strings you will live with that kitchen/bathroom/lack of space.

Hair and beauty

Gym membership/personal trainers

Private podiatry/sports massage/ physio/ therapy etc

Dog walkers

Nursery/childminders

Take away's /restaurants / pubs / clubs

Window cleaners

Car valeters

Holiday companies - areas which rely on tourism

Upper end food and drink producers, if you are made redundant that bottle of Co-ops own gin will hit the spot as well as a posh one ! £4 in Morrisons buys you a snazzy travel mug to make your own coffee in

Disclaimer : DH and I actually only use a window cleaner from the list.

I'd rather start a list of people who will be out of business if life goes on mostly unchanged.

1. Doom-mongers.

Cake makers

My business is already being affected. This week alone I've had 6 stockists in London who have been placing orders every month for more than a year each email me to inform me that, until we know what is actually going to happen, they won't be placing anymore orders and will simply be running on a sale or return basis with local suppliers. I imagine this will get worse as it goes on. I'm a single mum, I run my business. I have been successful.... But now it's going to start going downhill.

Such as Millyonth ?

Forgot anything bespoke/artisan/crafty , live in very well to do area, lots of Delis and Bakeries, I drive past them and think, if we have a recession all those people will be buying tiger bread for their kids at Asda and olives from Aldi, if they can get them

And my children currently have a Spanish tutor, piano tutor and violin tutor. They go to swimming lessons, football club, drama club, athletics club and gymnastic club.
Some of those will quite probably need to go.

Sorry to hear that Chrisjen

It has a knock on effect. I'm guessing the Spanish tutor won't be a priority for many parents who need to tighten the purse strings, so she might end up a lot worse off.

I think holidays & tourism will do well actually. If sterling tanks it'll be a great cheap time to visit the UK.

That's what has happened in the past

(Remainer for what it's worth)

I think you and I live very different lives Chrisjen and that's no bad thing, variety is the spice of life and all that. I just look at a lot of people in the area where I live, the independently wealthy ones will of course be fine, but people relying on anyone with a decent wage employing them might not be.

Cleaners

Ah that's why we are struggling to find anything in the area we normally visit, much frequented by Germans and Belgians Thinkabout

Farmers
Machinery dealers
Land agents
Financial advisors

All people I know day to day who are really worried.

The mega rich will probably stay rich, but it isn't just the mega rich who use tutors, cleaners, window cleaners etc. So, as you say, they will all suffer when the middle class are hit. My income relies on other people buying my art, up to now that hasn't been a problem. But when those middle class people don't have as much disposable income, they won't spend their money on art. Then I won't have the money to spend on what I consider luxuries, which then leaves those people without their income. And you're right about all the independent coffee shops etc; people won't have the money to eat there when the trickle down effect starts.

Car dealerships

Farmers is an interesting one flowerycurtain I think as an industry they woke up quicker to the downsides than some others or at least have been more vocal. I know a few locally who voted leave and now regret that decision.

Of course the true Brexiteers couldn't give a toss about UK farming, in fact the much lauded Brexit economist Patrick Minford has more or less said they will be toast. I guess Auctioneers might get a very short-term bonus

Or Bailiffs ?

I would have thought farmers would be better off - captive market & return of government subsidies.

Agree with all the others though - all non-essentials will go as necessary.

Oldowl, farmers are currently subsidies by the EU. The current proposal from our government is to provide the same amount of subsidy, but rather than distribute it based on the amount of farmland each farm owns, they will distribute it based on how much effort each farm makes to improve the environemnt. Of course it's a good idea to encourage green farming as the industry is quite bad for the environment, but the largest farms will have the hardest job. And they will take longer, which means they won't receive the same subsidy as they are used too or as they need to run their farms.

Also, only 5% of Welsh lamb is eaten in Britain. They export, and 90% of the exported lamb goes to the EU. We eat a lot of lamb from new Zealand because it's cheaper and that won't be affected by brexit. Japan have recently announced that they will important British lamb and beef, so hopefully that will go some way to help.

I am not sure the Government have promised subsidies have they ? I mean written down legal text ? Not just fake promises ?

It's Michael Gove's proposal.... that's really all that needs to be said to be honest!

We are all going to suffer apart from the rich and those who hedge against the UK economy.

Businessess relocating, going bust or just tightening its purse strings means redundancy and less tax.

It means further austerity, less people spending. It's just a vicious cycle.

Construction industry and the related professions - surveyors, agents, architects, valuers, etc.

So I’ve already seen my job mentioned above. What a horrible thread, why did I click on this

You can see the trends from this list of businesses that have already suffered...

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTIPx0lI6pb-3Tn-3D6uNJNyKcCd-A8uPMxViagyJAR9T87ZmnSdAEPCzp5ljlNYoUNdxJiJqQdBm7b/pubhtml

I would have thought farmers would be better off - captive market & return of government subsidies.

Not necessarily. Most will depend on some imported materials, or products made from imported materials (fertiliser, equipment).

And some rely on European export markets, eg lamb industry. The British do eat lamb, but some cuts are not popular in the U.K. and you can't make a living selling half a lamb. Nor can you compete in Europe with 30-40% tariffs (sorry can't remember exact number but it's big).