Businesses that will suffer in the event of a post Brexit recession, feel free to add to the list

[frumpety]

I was thinking today as I handed over money to our window cleaner, if DH lost his job what would we cut back on and how that might impact little businesses. So I thought I would start a list

Estate agents - people won't want to sell if they don't need to, potential for negative equity.

Trades related to house building and home improvement, if you have to tighten your purse strings you will live with that kitchen/bathroom/lack of space.

Hair and beauty

Gym membership/personal trainers

Private podiatry/sports massage/ physio/ therapy etc

Dog walkers

Nursery/childminders

Take away's /restaurants / pubs / clubs

Window cleaners

Car valeters

Holiday companies - areas which rely on tourism

Upper end food and drink producers, if you are made redundant that bottle of Co-ops own gin will hit the spot as well as a posh one ! £4 in Morrisons buys you a snazzy travel mug to make your own coffee in

Disclaimer : DH and I actually only use a window cleaner from the list.

I've just noticed this morning on the corner of DSs nursery website (was checking about snow) a little Erasmus plus sign.
I think the teachers/workers share training with nursery workers in other European countries.

Especially at a time where our own education funding isn't great. Its a shame if all these lovely extras go too.

Before I get told my 2 year old is part of the liberal elite it costs the same as all the other local nurseries!

Some businesses do better in hard times though.
People will always need to buy and sell houses but the market may be depressed. But if folk decide not to buy a bigger/better house they may renovate instead - giving business to joiners etc.
Also, in hard times people still buy luxuries - I've read that lipstick sales can go up in hard time - a little affordable luxury.
But I agree - window cleaners, cleaners, artists will be hit.

Businesses that will do well out of Brexit:

Lawyers (except property)
People who sell services to non EU countries.

People who will do well out of the coming recession (that was coming anyway it’s just bad timing):

Lawyers
Insolvency practitioners

There will be plenty more.

Always so pessimistic on here. Why no mention of the potential boom time for insolvency practitioners and bailiffs?

And customs clearance agents.

Used car dealers might do OK. New car prices could rise significantly with exchange rates and tariffs and the EU-imposed controls which effectively knocked around 10% off RHD car prices won't apply any more. That's likely to add a premium onto late model used cars.

Lots of good Brexit coverage on Farming Today. Currently much fear and apprehension in the farming community:
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qj8q/broadcasts/2019/01

Brexit means farmers are Losing their subsidy! It won't be a return of government subsidy. I heard ADHB employees yesterday stating that 2/3 out of 5 farmers will make a loss when subsidies go.

All my inputs in my farm and my labour come from the EU. There's. It many people in this country happy to work in farms these days.

All of them except legal services and insolvency practitioners. That is how recessions work you know...

@flowerycurtain that means they are eother farming inefficiently or the goods are underpriced. They never should have been subsidised in the first place. It encourages unviable business practices and costs a lot of money.

@Racecardriver

With it subsidies, food become unaffordable for most. Subsidising food is a sensible use of taxpayer money.

*without

I was thinking about this, if food prices etc rise/ one of us loses our job then these people will lose out;

• dance teacherx3
• music teacherx2
• our cleaner
• the lady who does my nails
• local theatres etc
• window cleaners
• drama teacher x3
• hairdresser
• holiday companies
• restaurants

It’s going to be a long and nasty depression (at best).
We have a large discretionary spend each month but if we have to cut that then all those above will lose out. Multiply that many many times over and it is going to be pretty grim.

@chrisjenavasavlara not necessarily though. In theory, without interference (subsidies, import taxes, quotas) only farmers who could produce food that was affordable could actually survive as businesses. They would be forced to lower prices by improving methods or taking less profit or go out of business. A stronger argument would be syndicisation (Australian dairy industry comes to mind) or the rise of factory farming (although not everyone thinks this is bad). But I’ll conveieved subsidies can also be terrible for the entire population not just the farming industry. Take the American corn subsidies. They have lead to a massive over supply of corn which in turn has made it cheap to buy. The result has been the mass use of corn syrup as a sweetener, cheaper junk food and, arable land being taken up by corn farms which ultimately produce corn syrup. What started out as attempt to help farmers and poor Americans ended up a national health disaster. Long term government interference distorts markets and is ultimately bad for consumers.

Oh and obviously subsidies require increased revenue. That money comes from households also making food (and everything else) less affordable.

From Never's list:

• dance teacherx3
• music teacherx2
• our cleaner
• the lady who does my nails
• local theatres etc
• window cleaners
• drama teacher x3
• hairdresser
• holiday companies
• restaurants

I suspect the cleaners, nails, hairdresser and restaurants would be the first to get the hit. People value education especially in hard times (better education leads to better job opportunities) so I'd say the extra teachers/tutors may be ok in the short term. Also, it's easier to give up your own nice luxuries rather than your children's.

Bizarrely we export potatoes to Ireland. Potato farmer I know has been told that in the event of no deal they will look elsewhere. It's his biggest contract. He voted leave.

I think holidays & tourism will do well actually. If sterling tanks it'll be a great cheap time to visit the UK

Except:

• The tourism and hospitality industries are hugely dependent on staff from the EU - there are hotels in London where over 80% of the staff are from outside the UK;

• Food and fuel shortages will make the UK a less attractive place to visit;

• Ditto the threatened State of Emergency and the possibility of Martial Law being imposed to prevent/control civil disorder;

• Ditto the emergence of people who have been emboldened by the Brexit referendum (and May's 'Hostile environment') and now feel it is OK to abuse foreigners in the street, on the Tube etc.;

• and the traffic problems crossing the Channel (assuming that there will be any space allocated to private cars and individuals) and the 3-hour queues predicted at the airports for passport control.

Potato farmer I know has been told that in the event of no deal they will look elsewhere. It's his biggest contract. He voted leave.

Farmers round here vote leave. Then had to watch their crops rot in the autumn because it turned out that telling people you do t want than here results in them f*ing off.

On the farming question, I'm no expert but pre subsidy didn't the country have a very different type of diet? Much less meat eaten, much more grow your own, many fewer women in work therefore spending much more time making do with only seasonal veg and a few scraps of meat.
No year round soft fruit.
Much more malnourishment
No avocados, feta, toulouse sausages...

It's all the same thing isn't it?

If we go back to the old days, ie pre subsidy, then we'll all be eating boiled beef and carrots once a week and turnips the rest of it as meat etc IS too expensive to eat every day if farmed without subsidy?

I'm not here to debate whether the above is a good or bad thing, there are clearly pros and cons, esp when you consider health and the environment alongside people's preferences, but the posts about farming needing to be more competitive are pretty naive - the whole balance of the country needs serious adjustment is we're going to lose subsidies

Just some idle lunchtime thoughts...

PMSL at the idea the Tories will stump up money to replace EU agriculture subsidies, regional development funding etc.Turkeys votes for Xmas there.

We design and build temporary structures for sports events, 1/3 of our annual turnover comes from building these in EU countries. If we leave with no deal our employees will not be able to travel abroad to work building these without a visa. They're unlikely to get a visa to work because the EU has carpenters.
We would lose £2.5 million pounds, might result in just a few job losses!

What might happen to sheep farming might be intensive rearing in sheds like they do in China. I'm not giving up sheep farming. I love the way people on here are salivating over the end of farming in the UK. Charming. I voted Remain by the way.

Builders and associated trades could do well as people who stay put will need to renovate / extend

Any business that is already precarious will be vulnerable to the ripple effects of increasing interest rates (and we are already seeing high street giants like Debenhams really struggling)

It's incredibly hard to change operational / business model in farming, what with plants, animals and land needing a decent lead-in time and not working as planned from Day 1

There will be further austerity right?

That means everything is affected, not just manufacturing or service business. Mental health services, social care, education, old age care, the NHS and so on.

It has the potential to be quite miserable. And as is said everywhere at the moment, it will be the people who voted for the Brexit dividend, or for greater sovereignty who will be affected negatively by the lack of both.