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Brexit

Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/01/2019 09:52

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

OP posts:
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Destiel · 28/01/2019 16:42

You know what's good with gin?

More bloody gin!

borntobequiet · 28/01/2019 16:42

Go on over, Perverse. It’s hard work.

Apileofballyhoo · 28/01/2019 16:43

Born, just realised the lemons thread was you. Still grinning at your neighbour's DC comment while waiting for elements to show up for bingo.

DGRossetti · 28/01/2019 16:44

Did anyone catch the leaked manual on Brexit negotiations ?

Weezol · 28/01/2019 16:46

Born I'd guess the tennis ref was about him allegedly taking backhanders.

borntobequiet · 28/01/2019 16:50

That would be good! But I think it was his relatively clean cut looks. She’s a great tennis fan and her hero is Federer. “So nice, such a gentleman, just like Count Something Von Something in 1949”.

1tisILeClerc · 28/01/2019 16:58

From Wiki
{Captain Lawrence Edward Grace "Titus" Oates was a British army officer, and later an Antarctic explorer, who died during the Terra Nova Expedition. Oates, afflicted with gangrene and frostbite, walked from his tent into a blizzard.}

umpteennamechanges · 28/01/2019 16:58

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-likelihood-of-second-referendum-has-risen-sharply-data-shows-a4047241.html

Weirdly London Standard are reporting PV @ 50% and No Deal @ 5% likelihood according to some forecasting group or other.

Which is the opposite of most predictions at the moment I'd say?

Thoughts?

Missbel · 28/01/2019 17:00

Big Choc Frenzy I remember the kitchen cabinet. I thought they were all dead. I think Haines and Donoughue must both be a hundred and eleventy three or so... as for trusting May, I assumed they were both speaking without any expectation that anyone would take their advice!

DGRossetti · 28/01/2019 17:00

Did post this on another thread, but talking to my very old (97 this year) and quite posh neighbour about Brexit (ghastly)

Ghastly was a favourite epithet of DMs - maybe a generational thing ? She'd pause very slightly before fully enunciating it which a stress on the "ghar" bit.

PerverseConverse · 28/01/2019 17:01

@Apileofballyhoo bless 'em and there "try something different" "food shortages will be good as the nhs will save money if there's food shortages" "no one's going to starve"

New bingo cards?

boldlygoingsomewhere · 28/01/2019 17:03

Dear God! Can’t believe there is talk of a general election! I have no-one to vote for. Neither of the two main parties represent my views on the matter.

DGRossetti · 28/01/2019 17:04

Which is the opposite of most predictions at the moment I'd say?

Famously YouGov were well out of line about the 2017 GE - until they were pretty much on the money.

Worth noting the provenance of that story. It's the Standard - George Osbornes May-trolling organ. It's general thrust over the past two years has been to deliver maximum problems for May (not the Tory party though).

borntobequiet · 28/01/2019 17:05

Yes, same stress, simultaneous with a slightly higher pitch.

DGRossetti · 28/01/2019 17:06

Dear God! Can’t believe there is talk of a general election! I have no-one to vote for. Neither of the two main parties represent my views on the matter.

One thing (you'd think) a GE would do, is focus both parties to a manifesto. Although the way things are now, and given that manifestos are obsolete, I can easily see a GE being fought with no manifesto, just a Facebook page.

DGRossetti · 28/01/2019 17:08

(posted too soon) ...

However, if the parties are forced to produce a manifesto, we might get some shift in direction ?

I'm not voting for any party that will take my vote as a vote for Brexit.

umpteennamechanges · 28/01/2019 17:13

I'm afraid Brexit trumps my concerns over gender/sex self-ID so I'd be voting Lib Dem.

Because anything else...voting for one of the two main parties, not voting or spoiling my vote could be so easily manipulated as either voting for Brexit or voter apathy due to voters 'just wanting to get on with Brexit' whereas no such spin can be put on a Lib Dem (or Green) vote.

And they're my voting home apart from the self-ID policy...centralist and evidence based apart from biology apparently

LonelyandTiredandLow · 28/01/2019 17:17

Yes Rosetti that Expert clip is exactly what I was trying to get at. I always seem to be shouting at the radio about them answering the wrong question and expecting a good result.

Hazardswans · 28/01/2019 17:18

GE?

DGRossetti · 28/01/2019 17:19

I'm afraid Brexit trumps my concerns over gender/sex self-ID so I'd be voting Lib Dem

One fuck up at a time. Let's kill Brexit, then folk can lobby for other things.

Given our electoral system, LBs are hardly going to get a majority.

Which leads to another wrinkle ...

How would a 280-Tory, 280-Labour 40-LD + others HoC be able reverse Brexit ? After all, both major parties would claim support for Brexit and it would be "undemocratic" of the LDs to try to reverse it on those numbers.

By the same token, the LDs couldn't support Brexit either - given they stood on an anti platform

So a GE wouldn't really solve anything. Just add another layer of fuckedness onto the bonfire.

Spudlet · 28/01/2019 17:19

umpteen same. I don't like the concept of unlimited self-ID and the lack of sensible discussion of the potential pitfalls of this, but I like the potential consequences of the unholy clusterfuck that Brexit may usher in a hell of a lot less. So I shall hold my nose and vote Lib Dem.

Not that it will make a difference. I've posted this before, but you could attach a blue rosette to a fence post around here and it would win (actually a fence post might be a more charismatic prospect than our current MP 🤔). But at least my conscience will be clear.

StoorieHoose · 28/01/2019 17:24

Im hoping my Tory MP with the 180 vote majority is turfed out on his ear if there is a GE. Every time I see is smug face on theTV all I can focus on is his moobs - which disturbs me greatly

Destiel · 28/01/2019 17:25

My lib dem candidate is a leaver

Destiel · 28/01/2019 17:26

Sadly my fuckwit of an mp has a majority of 7k - down from 11k in 2015.

Destiel · 28/01/2019 17:28

...and I voted lib dems in 2010.

That went swimmingly