Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.

[RedToothBrush]

Well the good news is we haven't got a GE yet, and it looks unlike one will be called this week. Purely because we haven't got a crisis point looming this week.

May has officially confirmed plan A is plan B. But says she will try and get more on the backstop whilst working with the DUP. Barnier and Ireland have said 'no'

We now prepare for the Meaningful Vote II.

And a week of speculation about amendments.

Here's a quick summary of likely ones:
Guardian Article on possible amendments

I think the Labour one will struggle to gain Tory support. The big thing about it is leans the party line firmly towards a customs union.

The Grieve one is handicapped by talk of a minority of 300 taking control of Parliament. Otherwise it might have support.

The two most interesting are:

The Benn 'Indicative Vote' as its reflective of the Brexit Select Committee recommendations.

The Cooper-Boles Block No Deal amendment which is cross party and seeks to place a final date on May passing her deal by 26th Feb, after which Parliament will take control. This I believe is being supported by Labour as a whole.

Bercow of course gets to say which amendments are debated and voted on but Benn and Cooper-Boles have broad support so are unlikely to be ignored by him. The two together seem to compliment each other.

The rest of this week is likely to be lobbying on this but otherwise fairly calm. Though someone is bound to throw a few curveball in there with leaks.

The only other thing to watch out for is talk of up to 40 ministers quitting if they are not allowed a free vote on some sort of indicative vote motion. This seems to be being lead by Amber Rudd. But I don't expect this to come to a head until the weekend at the earliest.

In other words, we have a couple of days of calm before the storm. Expect it to ramp up again at the weekend in craziness.

So I missed this from two days ago

LabourLordsUk @labourlordsuk
BREAKING: Govt defeat, as peers back @LadyBasildon motion 243-208 that Govt must explain how trade policy would work post-#Brexit BEFORE #TradeBill proceeds to Lords Report stage (Committee starting today) - majority of 35

This apparently means that until we know what the plan for our trading relationship post Brexit is, the Lords will block the trade bill. They will not allow us to blindly Brexit without knowing this. The trade bill is crucial in terms of being ready for 29 March whether or not we have a deal. It has to be passed before then.

They are still debating the trade bill but as it stands in the event of no deal we can't go to WTO terms because this block prevents that.

That literally means we legally can not trade with anyone because parliament has not approved it.

This may be resolved yet, but as it stands no deal is currently set up to be worse than a supply chain shock because this blocks trade.

There are several other crucial bills which are also no where near complete.

That's just staggered me. I hadn't realised.

Apileofballyhoo

If you're N.Irish; are you angry that 'renewed violence' is the UK's expected reaction to challen... www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/3485842-if-you-re-n-irish-are-you-angry-that-renewed-violence-is-the-uk-s-expected-reaction-to-challenges

This is the latest I've read but lots of ill feeling running through lots of brexit threads.

That was in that Mirror article posted a few pages back. I think they shelved it because of lack of detail?

I was discussing Brexit with my ex husband earlier today. He’s adamant that there will not be a no deal exit, for the simple reason that the government would fall. I hope to God he’s right.

So who actually has realised, Red? Is it no one, seeing as we’re not hearing about it?

No Deal could really heat up public feelings on both sides of the Channel

So far, despite all the stirring and fond hopes of Brexiters,
the E27 public & workers who would be damaged are blaming Britain
e.g.

Olivier Lepretre, VP of France’s CNPMEM fishermen’s committee claims that French fishermen will have nothing to lose by taking action to block British fish:

“Not a single kilo of seafood from Britain will be allowed into Europe.”

I'm still ruminating on the prorogation of parliament business ...

One of the foundations of our democracy - when all else has been swept aside - is the fact that no parliament can bind it's successors.

No exceptions. No ifs, no buts.

How can that bedrock of democracy be balanced against a situation that effectively binds parliament to a previous decision ?

We return to David Davies observation that A democracy which cannot change it's mind has ceased to be a democracy

Personally I don't think that can be overstated enough.

It's mrs8...
I'm trying our my new nn!
Whaddya think?
(Twirls)

@mrs8 ... sorry Des-whatever

Very nice

Does it mean anything (before I google) ...

@PerverseConverse That thread has been deleted now...

The Irish thread is gone...

Does anyone know if anything's been done about joining the WTO yet? I thought I read it would take about 6 months to be approved by all the current members? In which case, what happens in the meantime?

red That Mirror article (which imo came to a far too optimistic conclusion about No Brexit)
details so many bills required for No Deal that the HoC and / or HoL have not passed, or even debated yet

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-already-been-cancelled-heres-13896286

Of the 14 new bills required for Brexit - on things like animal welfare, money laundering and haulage - just 5 have been passed since the referendum.._

Of the 9 remaining, the one closest to being finished is the Trade Bill - and the House of Lords just voted to shelve it because it lacked detail.

According to the government, this defeat means we are now unable to move to World Trade Organisation ruleses_ in the event of a no deal Brexit.*

The government has been asked for this extra detail for 15 months, and has failed to come up with any.
....
Last year Parliament demanded more scrutiny of these "Henry VIII powers",", in order to ensure it was done properly.*
As a result, only 79 have been approved.
That leaves 254 in the system, and 267 yet to be filed.
.....
No deal means we have to pass that trade bill that's been shelved.
It needs a financial services bill which has yet to get to the Commons for MP approval,
and Parliament has also got to legislate for EU citizen's rights..

On top of that, no deal requires 60 new processes, 25 new IT systems,

a "mega-bill" of 17 new laws to be passed by the Irish government, < NOT going to happen >

and - oh dear - all 600 of those statutory instruments to have been filed, read, and approved by MPs.
Not going to happen, is it?

@DGRossetti I think JRM May have shot himself in the foot today.
I think many leavers would struggle to stomach that and it is the end of democracy as we know it.
But more and more today I have felt the increasing sense of desperation from the Leave camp. And I hope I can sense the mood changing.
It’s getting all too real.

i think they shelved it because of lack of detail?

Yes, my understanding is the Lords said the WA is a blind Brexit and the trade Bill provided no detail as to what the WA would later enable. Thus threw it back at the government to sort out

In terms of who noticed, it seems to be proper buried away. Not many journalists are following what's happening in the Lords. Most are following the Commons with varying degrees of understanding and levels of explanation.

It hasn't gone unnoticed completely from what I can see.

This is telling. The partial quote about the proroguing grabs the headline and you ignore what he said next, mainly cos you don't fully understand it.

Tom Rayner @ RaynerSkyNews
Jacob Rees-Mogg floats idea of PM proroguing parliament if required, to prevent the “constitutional outrage” of MPs (Cooper/Boles/Grieve) seeking to instruct the executive to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

Asked what that meant for Brexit legislation needed before March 29th (Trade, Healthcare, Agriculture, Fisheries, Immigtion & Financial Services bills) he said: : "It looks extremely unlikely the UK statute book is going to be ready by March 30 for either a deal or no deal."

Rees-Mogg threat to PM is thinly veiled... failing to prorogue parliament in event Cooper/Boles amendments pass would amount to "allowing the opposition to Brexit to win".

But put into the context of the Trade Bill (and several other key bits of legislation not being close to being passed by the 29th March) this looks a whole lot worse.

Not only is he saying we should close parliament but he's saying it admitting that he knows that legislation isn't even ready for no deal and this constitutionally is mind blowing. What he's says is we should deliberately no deal when we haven't even got WTO in place.

Seriously. He clearly understands where things are at as he admits there is a problem with the statute book!

Fuck me the proroguing was bad enough. But the full complex is quite something

Complex - context.

Tonsils As in my link, the UK has not passed its own legislation to enable it to trade under WTO rules.

re the WTO itself:
Several countries, including the USA, NZ, Russia have objected to the UK's proposed schedules & quotas.
That's not in itself a problem, as the UK could continue with the schedules it wants until that's sorted

• the EU for several years used the same terms it had for 15 members while it grew to 28 !

BUT
The EU is an economic superpower and noone wanted to fight it unnecessarily,
whereas another country might fancy its chances against the UK, just take the once-in-a-century opportunity of the UK being so vulnerable to put the boot in.

ALSO
The USA for years has deliberately blocked the appointment of new WTO judges, so their court is basically non-functional
Hence cpountries just use sanctions if they have disputes
Survival of the fittest

WTO rules are a very bare skeleton of what the UK needs and provide little protection
A big reason why
there is currently NO country - not even Mauritius or North Korea - that trades with everyone solely on WTO terms

the whole world is moving to join bigger trade blocs
deliberately aiming to copy the EU SM in many ways

only the UK is moving away from its regional trade bloc !^

Does anyone know if anything's been done about joining the WTO yet? I thought I read it would take about 6 months to be approved by all the current members? In which case, what happens in the meantime?

Our membership is apparently OK, just not formally signed off but that's not necessary to start trading. I think it's supposed to limit us in minor ways but at least initially its not the end of the world in theory. In practice however some might get grumpy and start a dispute. But there's 18 months before a judge will hear a case anyway in part because the US has been blocking judicial appointments for some time and that's now led to the organisation being less efficient because of a shortage of judges. Trump is now actively trying to almost perma block new appointments because he wants to rip up the WTO. Which would not be good news for medium or small sized countries. Like us.

God its a fucking mess.

Every time you look closer at the details you go 'what an utter clusterfuck' which to all intents and purposes isn't being managed through parliament. It's being shoved through on a wing and prayer because of time constraints. And you can bloody well tell already.

Which means that what has been passed is liable to be substandard anyway.

@mrsr8. Yes it is a very well thumbed vol on my shelves. I traded the full works for the obscure explorer! Not wanting to be greedy. Etc

I am beginning to wonder if anyone in power fully has a handle on this at all or what the Daily implications are meaning in terms of no deal.

Certainly there is a lack of full coverage of the fine detail of this going on. Important stuff is being missed by journalists.

I'm guessing the majority of the public have no interest and that's the point, but its necessary for journos themselves to know this. Not being able to trade on WTO terms is significant!