Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.

[RedToothBrush]

Well the good news is we haven't got a GE yet, and it looks unlike one will be called this week. Purely because we haven't got a crisis point looming this week.

May has officially confirmed plan A is plan B. But says she will try and get more on the backstop whilst working with the DUP. Barnier and Ireland have said 'no'

We now prepare for the Meaningful Vote II.

And a week of speculation about amendments.

Here's a quick summary of likely ones:
Guardian Article on possible amendments

I think the Labour one will struggle to gain Tory support. The big thing about it is leans the party line firmly towards a customs union.

The Grieve one is handicapped by talk of a minority of 300 taking control of Parliament. Otherwise it might have support.

The two most interesting are:

The Benn 'Indicative Vote' as its reflective of the Brexit Select Committee recommendations.

The Cooper-Boles Block No Deal amendment which is cross party and seeks to place a final date on May passing her deal by 26th Feb, after which Parliament will take control. This I believe is being supported by Labour as a whole.

Bercow of course gets to say which amendments are debated and voted on but Benn and Cooper-Boles have broad support so are unlikely to be ignored by him. The two together seem to compliment each other.

The rest of this week is likely to be lobbying on this but otherwise fairly calm. Though someone is bound to throw a few curveball in there with leaks.

The only other thing to watch out for is talk of up to 40 ministers quitting if they are not allowed a free vote on some sort of indicative vote motion. This seems to be being lead by Amber Rudd. But I don't expect this to come to a head until the weekend at the earliest.

In other words, we have a couple of days of calm before the storm. Expect it to ramp up again at the weekend in craziness.

Am I missing something (again) with the knocking on the door and bookshelves??

Then the Torys need to do something about the books.

PC

Am I missing something (again) with the knocking on the door and bookshelves??

I think it's in the context of the Tories losing MC (remain) support due to their Brexit stance and conflating the idea of having books = Middle Class.

One senior minister also told The Sun on Tuesday that the Tory vote has collapsed in middle class pro-Remain areas.

The minister said: “I walk down smarter streets in my constituency these days that were once strongholds and don’t want anything to do with us now.

“If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory.”

www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8257029/

Checking in

Books = educated. The enemy of fascism. Except for those with no moral compass who are happy to ride the storm.

If it's any consolation, they usually come to a sticky end though ... put against a wall and shot.

What you mean people who have books get shot against the wall?

What this senior minister is saying, to my ear, is that more educated and informed people are not voting Tory anymore.

Quite an admission.

It has happened before Red

I'd like to think this will all get sorted, somehow. However, it does seem the far right genie is out of the bottle and the future could contain possibilities we never imagined on our shores.

Thought I would mention to all the conspiracy theorists that I just clicked into this thread from active!!

I've seen these threads in active before but literally just clicked in from it so hard evidence

What you mean people who have books get shot against the wall?

No. Those who should know better, but use the mob for their own ends. Rarely ends well.

My Dads DF knew one of the partisans who strung Mussolini up. Literally (albeit dead at the time).

And you can usually win a few quid if you propose a bet about the last time a dictator was hauled out and shot by a mob in Europe. Few people guess as late as 1989.

I wonder who they're voting for - because it doesn't seem like they've moved to labour.

Well, until there's actually an election, it's moot ....

www.nytimes.com/2019/01/22/opinion/brexit-european-union.html

"we wonder whether the British have lost not only control but their minds."

What this senior minister is saying, to my ear, is that more educated and informed people are not voting Tory anymore.

At the risk of sounding very snippy, then clearly it's not working for them anymore. After all someone must have voted Tory before ?????

Which adds a new element to the mix ... how sorry should someone feel for a lifelong Tory voter who has now decided to turn ? After all, they were quite happy with austerity, and kicking the more vulnerable down further in the past. So what's changed now ?

more educated and informed people are not voting Tory anymore.

Unfortunately with elections (and referenda) it's quantity not quality that counts.

From that NY Times article

But most of all, this process has taught us about the strength of the European Union in a way that we never suspected.

That should chill the heart of any Brexiteer, (when it's read to them). I can easily foresee a future where - impressed by the EU as suggested - the US decides the future is best cosying up to the EU to the exclusion of thirds countries. Stranger things have happened. (Suez, for example).

Also... amid the news of Dyson's move to Singapore...

(Reuters) - British pubs group JD Wetherspoon Plc warned of lower pretax profit for the first half of its fiscal year, as it struggles with higher costs amid a slowdown in consumer spending ahead of Brexit.

Yay - a slender chink of good news

when it's read to them

Naughty DGR

From Private Eye on Daniel Kawczynski.

So what's changed now ?

They realise it’s going to affect them much more than previous austerity policy did?

There’s no amount of policy on JAMs/hard working families that can get them out of this hole.

If anyone here can remember USENET, (I try to keep a weather eye on all fora) my eye caught this earlier on a legal ng, which seemed interesting in the light of current events:

QUOTE

I was wondering in an idle moment (of which I have many these days) if the words "assent reserved" might yet feature in the story so went looking. The constitutional lawyers[1] are of course on the job. Eg ukconstitutionallaw.org/2019/01/22/robert-craig-could-the-government-advise-the-queen-to-refuse-royal-assent-to-a-backbench-bill/

He quotes Twomey

"If the monarch were given clear and firm Prime Ministerial advice that
she should withhold her royal assent to a Bill which had passed through the Houses of Parliament, it seems to be the case that the monarch should follow that advice. (Public Law, 63-64)"

and comments

"The UK parliament has long been a predominantly policy-influencing
legislature. The USA system, by contrast, has a predominantly policy-making legislature coupled with an executive veto. This is a further reason why the moves by backbench MPs to propose and pass bills
should perhaps cause us to raise a constitutional eyebrow. The UK legislature appear currently to be edging closer to setting policy rather than influencing policy and is thereby in danger of testing the limits of long-standing and accepted constitutional norms. This may recipitate
ripple effects analogous to the executive veto in the USA."

Interesting times.

[1] which prompted another idle thought: I wonder how constitutional
lawyers avoided sleeping on the Embankment after running out of former colonies who needed constitutions drafted and before devolution and Brexit came along.

END QUOTE

The distinction between policy influencing and policy making is interesting ....

I got that Wetherspoons magazine in the post today. Raging at them polluting my porch with that shite.