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Brexit

Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/01/2019 23:05

Well the good news is we haven't got a GE yet, and it looks unlike one will be called this week. Purely because we haven't got a crisis point looming this week.

May has officially confirmed plan A is plan B. But says she will try and get more on the backstop whilst working with the DUP. Barnier and Ireland have said 'no'

We now prepare for the Meaningful Vote II.

And a week of speculation about amendments.

Here's a quick summary of likely ones:
Guardian Article on possible amendments

I think the Labour one will struggle to gain Tory support. The big thing about it is leans the party line firmly towards a customs union.

The Grieve one is handicapped by talk of a minority of 300 taking control of Parliament. Otherwise it might have support.

The two most interesting are:

The Benn 'Indicative Vote' as its reflective of the Brexit Select Committee recommendations.

The Cooper-Boles Block No Deal amendment which is cross party and seeks to place a final date on May passing her deal by 26th Feb, after which Parliament will take control. This I believe is being supported by Labour as a whole.

Bercow of course gets to say which amendments are debated and voted on but Benn and Cooper-Boles have broad support so are unlikely to be ignored by him. The two together seem to compliment each other.

The rest of this week is likely to be lobbying on this but otherwise fairly calm. Though someone is bound to throw a few curveball in there with leaks.

The only other thing to watch out for is talk of up to 40 ministers quitting if they are not allowed a free vote on some sort of indicative vote motion. This seems to be being lead by Amber Rudd. But I don't expect this to come to a head until the weekend at the earliest.

In other words, we have a couple of days of calm before the storm. Expect it to ramp up again at the weekend in craziness.

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Thread gallery
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Lucygoeswalkies · 22/01/2019 19:45

Caught up - and PMK.

Don’t think I’ve got round to saying this: but thanks Red and other contributors. Best (and most engaging) politics lesson ever! Flowers

BigChocFrenzy · 22/01/2019 19:48

Nick Gutteridge@nick_gutteridge

The Polish Government is so keen to avoid no deal that only yesterday it opened itself up to an internal EU tongue-lashing by again questioning the backstop.
Hard to see why it would be in Warsaw's interest to veto an Article 50 extension, thus creating precisely that scenario.

BigChocFrenzy · 22/01/2019 19:49

Nick Gutteridge@nick_gutteridge

The Polish Government is so keen to avoid no deal that only yesterday it opened itself up to an internal EU tongue-lashing by again questioning the backstop

Hard to see why it would be in Warsaw's interest to veto an Article 50 extension, thus creating precisely that scenario.

UnnecessaryFennel · 22/01/2019 19:49

So, when it gets to the point when the EU are quoting Spice Girls' lyrics to describe Brexit, I think we can safely say that we have lost whatever dignity and gravitas we might have at one time had...

although to be fair it did raise a smile here

RedToothBrush · 22/01/2019 19:51

Maybe in the future when things really hot up a bit with a 'host' perhaps other than yourself who can try and steer it alongside?

At the moment I think its managable between me and BigChoc, but I'm keeping an eye on things. If it starts to get really crazy, then yes a definite rethink might be on the cards and I am conscious of it. I'm trying to avoid getting into a situation where we get 3 new threads at the same time thats all. I'm having a think about it at the moment.

As it stands events are proving relatively predictable, so we are ok for now. Its when (and I do think we will get to that point) it starts to be unpredictable that we will have issues.

One of the main issues is simply that people don't understand whats going on, so possibly the way forward might be trying to split off a general discussion thread and a thread which has regular round ups of the latest developments.

I don't know. Suggestions welcome.

(and as a side note, I've had a couple of PM over the last few days I've not replied to. I've simply not got around to them. I'm not ignoring! I really need to have a sit down and tackle them, but between this, real life and being generally incredibly disorganised, I've not got around to it yet!)

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SingingBabooshkaBadly · 22/01/2019 19:55

Sort of caught up, thanks Red

Now then Hazard, if you’re going to call yourself thick we shall all report the post and get MN to delete it Grin

HarveySchlumpfenburger · 22/01/2019 20:01

If we all report Hazard’s post we’ll never make it onto ‘trending’.

IsobelKarev · 22/01/2019 20:01

Another one adding thanks to the regulars! I've been shockingly ignorant in the very recent past and I'm grateful for the help. It's really good to know that if I take a day or two off the news you lot are here and I can get caught up pretty quickly.

I've actually started stocking up a bit - buying double my usual monthly supply of rice and pasta. I don't have space for much stuff really, but it is reassuring to have it there just in case. That and my mum is a farmer so I'm hoping she wouldn't let me starve!

BigChocFrenzy · 22/01/2019 20:02

Fabian Zuleegg@FabianZuleeg* (European Policy Centre, Brussels)

Even without border checks, with no deal most companies will have to stop trading across the border:
lack of legal certainty will raise huge liability & insurance issues
........
Taoiseach Varadkar said that in a no-deal scenario:

Ireland would have obligations to protect the single market
the United Kingdom would have obligations to protect World Trade Organisation rules

and both states would have an obligation to honour the Good Friday Agreement, protect the peace process and honour their commitments to the people of Northern Ireland that there will not be a hard border.

No-deal Brexit 'means hard border' - European Commission

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-northern-ireland-46961982?

LonelyandTiredandLow · 22/01/2019 20:02

Well, my mob won't let me log into MN at all!
At least I won't be posting so frequently!
Polish PM somehow doesn't get accused of getting too involved in our sovereignty, interestingly Confused Just wondering what Leavers not wanting a hard/no deal Brexit make of that?

Today my leaver friend has told me she will be fine if food is delayed, because she lives near lots of farms Grin.

IsobelKarev · 22/01/2019 20:07

Is it just me of do Varadkar's suggestions seem mutually exclusive?! Honour the GFA as well as WTO/EU rules?

Anyway, this is my current Brexit plan:

Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.
BigChocFrenzy · 22/01/2019 20:08

AAAARGH - Idiot ! Tweet from 5:08 pm today:

andrew murrisonn@AWMurrison*

Just re-tabled my amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement.
It reads; *

Short and sweet.
Likely to appeal to moderate MPs who just want #Brexit sorted.

< NO. It appeals to ignorant fools who think if they keep asking to drop the backstop, the EU will agree.
This is just time-wasting >

1tisILeClerc · 22/01/2019 20:09

RTB
Not suggesting you actually do it as you have far too much to do but it would be fascinating to run through Westminsterenders from the start and pick out things that the 'regulars' have predicted which have come true.
Having a 'sticky' reference thread which explains some of the acronyms and basic themes and info would be handy for new joiners. Maybe if one were written it could have a sticky link or whatever on the sidebar.

Mistigri · 22/01/2019 20:11

Latest analysis from Ivan Rogers. Transcript isn't up yet but this has the key points.

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1087776810325213184.html

Should be required reading for all the no-dealers who've popped up since the meaningful vote.

BigChocFrenzy · 22/01/2019 20:12

Isobel Nope, but they do exclude hard Brexit and No Deal
NI needs SM+ a customs arrangement to avoid border checks, while automatically fulfilling EU & WTO rules

The current WA backstop achieves this

Applied to the whole UK - if we choose that option for the PD (WA future framework) - SM+CA would enable frictionless trade, hence saving our JIT manufacturers

RedToothBrush · 22/01/2019 20:18

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
NEW: People's Vote descends into splits and infighting over:

- strategy of how to achieve a second referendum
- when to table PV amendment
- campaign tactics and events
- whether PV should run the Remain campaign
- antics of its senior MPs and officials

Labour MPs increasingly turning against a People's Vote

- shadow ministers tell Corbyn they will not support PV
- several MPs agreed at PLP last night
- Lucy Powell: “We’ve passed peak People’s Vote... PV has put off colleagues, pushing people away"

People's Vote row over when to table the second ref amendment.

Philip Lee and Sarah Wollaston determined to proceed on Tuesday despite PV officials and other MPs telling them to delay.

They say going now is "stupid" and PV has "lost control of its MPs"

Chuka/Lee/Wollaston have been pushing to table the amendment at the earliest opportunity.

They were opposed by PV officials at a meeting in which "voices were raised".

PV strategists fear they will lose vote and want to "knock out" no-deal and EEA first

Another split is over whether PV should run the Remain campaign.

Some PV MPs and staff think they should.

But others say: “There is absolutely no way the Blairite faction can be allowed to run the campaign at a second referendum. We’d lose 70-30”

^More internal PV rows over

- Philip Lee's 'hubristic' campaign launch
- PV Labour MPs' public blunder last week
- attacks on Labour and Corbyn
- Chuka's centrist party plans
- Blair on broadcast
- Roland Rudd doing Today prog live from Davos

www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/the-campaign-for-a-peoples-vote-on-brexit-has-descended?__twitter_impression=true
The Campaign For A People's Vote On Brexit Has Descended Into Infighting And Splits
The Labour party is increasingly being turned off a second referendum because of the internal rows between leading Remainers, MPs have told BuzzFeed News.

I think there is a certain inevitability to this. Its a mirror to what Ronald Smith said about the history of eurosceptism and an inability of leave to find a plan or a workable way of leaving.

The inherit problem of the PV is its lack of stated goal. Like the leave campaign it takes you down the route of 'get a referendum, then what?'. It has not practical political solution, only an ideological opposition to something and a half baked plan to stop it, which really only has a common goal of another referendum (like leaves only unity was simply in its opposition to the EU and winning a referendum).

The number of divisive issues that a second ref through up: everything from what's on the ballot paper, who leads the campaign, the central message of the campaign is still totally up for debate. It suffers from not having an agreed leadership structure and figurehead. Leave always had Farage and Johnson even if it had an absence of an end point.

Interesting to see though.

That's the challenge for the centre ground to address politically more generally imo. Cos its sure as hell not being demonstrated by Vince and his yellow vests.

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IsobelKarev · 22/01/2019 20:28

Thanks BCF. I feel like I'm going round in circles. You said upthread that you'd support the WA over No Deal - which I suspect most MPs would, and I think is what May is waiting for. What do you see as the advantages of WA over Revoke?

RedToothBrush · 22/01/2019 20:31

news.sky.com/story/po-post-brexit-plan-to-register-channel-fleet-in-cyprus-11614554?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter
P&O post-Brexit plan to register Channel fleet in Cyprus

Shipping operator P&O has announced it will be re-flagging its entire UK-registered fleet to Cyprus ahead of Brexit, in order to keep its tax arrangements within the European Union.

P&O had said in December that it would re-flag just two of its UK ships operating on the English Channel route to France to the Cyprus registry.

But the company has now decided that six of its 20 ships will be re-flagged, changing their national registration from British to Cypriot.

"In advance of Britain leaving the European Union on March 29, 2019, we undertook a review of the flag status of our ships on the English Channel," a P&O spokesman said in a statement on Tuesday.

"For operational and accounting reasons, we have concluded that the best course of action is to re-flag all ships to be under the Cyprus flag.

Rule, Britannia!
Britannia, rule the waves
And Britons never, never, never shall be slaves.
Rule, Britannia!
Britannia, rule the waves.
And Britons never, never, never shall be slaves.

Oh... Ermm... Oh dear...

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IsobelKarev · 22/01/2019 20:32

Thanks BCF. I feel like I'm going round in circles. You said upthread that you'd support the WA over No Deal - which I suspect most MPs would, and I think is what May is waiting for. What do you see as the advantages of WA over Revoke?

RedToothBrush · 22/01/2019 20:37

What do you see as the advantages of WA over Revoke

I think it depends on whether you view revoke as a unicorn or not. Is revoke even a possibility with May as PM? That's what you need to ask.

Revoke is NOT the political status quo. It opens up political issues of its own. It does not resolve the source of issues of where support for leaving came from.

You almost have to let the Brexit balloon deflate slowly to avoid explosive consequences.

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Villainess · 22/01/2019 20:38

Alec Wickham really gets my back up. I don't bother with UK Buzzfeed news now that he's the political editor.

Villainess · 22/01/2019 20:39

Revoke is NOT the political status quo. It opens up political issues of its own. It does not resolve the source of issues of where support for leaving came from.

No. We're too far down the road to revoke. Everything is getting more fevered and revoking wouldn't solve anything.

BiglyBadgers · 22/01/2019 20:39

The People's Vote lot having been heading that way for a bit now. They appear to be as split as the leave lot at times.

For what it's worth I think overtly joining the PV campaign with any remain campaign is a terrible idea and only serves to play into the idea that a PV is just a remainer plot to scupper Brexit. As I see it the main thing the idea of a PV has on its side is that in theory it could appeal to both remain and moderate leavers and could, therefore, be one of the only things that could command a majority and break the deadlock in parliament. If the PV campaign is also saying openly that they will campaign officially for remain than this removes this factor and in my view seriously reduces the chance of a PV ever happening.

Basically, they are being very silly and shortsighted.

Ta1kinPeace · 22/01/2019 20:41

Redtoothbrush
I'm pretty sure that these threads are much too analytical and full of links for troublemakers to hand around for long.

I'm glad MNHQ have had to have a think and a chat among themselves about it all

I'm delighted that these threads will not appear in "trending" as that draws the attention of the tabloids

But its useful to know exactly how the different sections of the talk boards work
so that those who want to come and read are able to

1tisILeClerc · 22/01/2019 20:42

IsobelKarev
No deal is such a destructive and potentially significant risk to lives not through deliberate action but because there is so much that will 'stop' all at once things will get forgotten.
My view is that now the UK should leave, as EU needs a strong partner/member and certainly at the moment the UK is not that.
WA route means that from 30 March life for everyone is the same as 29 March but the negotiating teams head off to Brussels and start the process of leaving. In the following days/months both sides can take stock and decide what they really want. There may be an election in the UK or leadership changes but for the time being no one dies unnecessarily.