How would No Deal Brexit affect you personally?

[Puddelchen]

What impact would no deal have on your personal circumstances? What is your personal biggest worry?
In my case it is medication which is my biggest concern.

We live in another EU country. My biggest concern is for my husband. I have dual Irish citizenship so I'm ok and I'm in the process of registering my adult DD, so she'll be ok. But DH has no fall back. He's applied for citizenship here but processing times are currently at over 2.5 years. So he won't know what his status is and how that will affect his job. He also doesn't know if he'll still pass security vetting. For the first time in our almost 20 years together I can see real worry on his face.

Ta1kinPeace It’s such a unwelcoming that many hundreds of thousands want to come here ever year, it may not be prefect,
It what was does it hassle the vulnerable and sick ?
The home office has to decide if a refugee is a true refugee or an economic migrant,
Many times convicted criminals have been stop from deportation because of numerous failed appeals, wasting time and money,
Do you think we should just let everybody and anybody in ?

Ta1kinPeace But in will be just in time, once the early delays are over, so all the factories would shut down if there was a two strike at all the ports ?

BollocksToBrexit
I have dual Irish citizenship so I'm ok and I'm in the process of registering my adult DD, so she'll be ok. But DH has no fall back. He's applied for citizenship here but processing times are currently at over 2.5 years

Why did you leave your applications so late in the day?

Hesta
Do you think we should just let everybody and anybody in ?
Let them in and let them work.
But in will be just in time, once the early delays are over
You don't really "get" customs clearance do you ......
Even on a good day, Clearance will add several hours to loading and unloading every ferry
so the delays will go on for ever as long as the UK has customs checks at the Channel ports

and if it does not have customs checks
then we will just be letting everybody in

Not all economists share the doom and gloom;

www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/picking-through-the-brexit-shambles/
"Plenty of ink has been spilt on the latter, but a key point that is often overlooked is that there are many different forms of “no deal”. At one end of the spectrum, is an “orderly” or “managed” no deal, in which the UK leaves the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement, but does have several side agreements in place that keep traffic flowing at ports and airports and limit the risks of financial market dislocation At the other end of the spectrum, is a “disorderly” no deal in which no such agreements are struck."

"Three points stand out. First, while there would be a short-term hit to the economy in both scenarios, it would be substantially smaller in the event of an “orderly” no deal than it would be in a “disorderly” one – in the former we think GDP might initially fall by around 1% relative to our baseline, while in the latter it might drop by around 3%.

Second, in both cases the disruption is likely to be temporary and we suspect the economy would return to growth by the second half of 2019. This would be helped by policy support – despite hints to the contrary from the Governor Carney, our sense is that the BoE would cut interest rates in the event of a no deal downturn, and we think the Chancellor would tear up his budget rules and loosen fiscal policy too. (The market implications are summarised here.)

Finally, despite this recovery, we think that in both scenarios the economy would still be smaller than would otherwise be the case by the end of 2020. (See Chart 2.) That being said, depending on the types of trade deals that a subsequent government was able to secure, we wouldn’t rule out the possibility that the economy recovers all of the lost output by the early part of the next decade and that trend growth thereafter is broadly unchanged from its current rates of just under 2%.

Capital Economics is one of the leading independent economic research companies in the world. Our large team of more than 60 experienced economists provides award-winning macroeconomic, financial market and sectoral analysis, forecasts and consultancy, from offices in London, New York, Toronto, Sydney and Singapore

Ta1kinPeace That FOM is so one sided I wish I could go to Bulgaria and earn 330% more of a wage and retire like a king,

Clavinova
Interesting article, this quote leaps out
our sense is that the BoE would cut interest rates in the event of a no deal downturn
How exactly would cutting rates from stuff all to nearly zero
keep manufacturers hit by JIT delays from leaving the UK?

Ta1kinPeace What do you think there is one person checking every lorry that comes through, your ok , next please

Hesta. The highly educated internationally mobile such as my PhD educated German husband no longer want to come here.

The less educated unskilled who have fewer prospects do still want to come as there are few jobs in their home countries. So we are likely to have a system which deters those who have options, but where it still fails to deter the less skilled. Great own goal.

Before the referendum my husband never considered that any of the anti migrant rants in the Daily Mail were directed at him. He didn’t approve of course, but thought is was mostly about asylum seekers and illegal immigration. In much of the rest of the EU, EU migration isn’t seen as immigration and is not for example reported in the most quoted numbers of immigration into Germany.

It was only after the referendum that he realised that the disdain really did apply to him. The UK’s own prime minister called people like him ‘citizens of nowhere’, said that they destroyed community cohesion and ‘jumped the queue’ for jobs. Had this been the rhetoric when he first applied to Cambridge there is no way he would be here.

Claiming that it’s not personal is totally disingenuous, along the lines of ‘Oh, I didn’t mean you’....

Hesta
If you sold a UK house you could move to Bulgaria and buy a beachfront palace and live like a king
hence why lots of Brits have second homes all over the continent
FOM works all ways

I cannot bear the 'i'm alright, Jack' attitude from the people who are comfortably sitting in houses they own outright/ have tiny mortgages on.
Deluded, ignorant, entitled fools.

I'm worried about access to medications, that might affect me.

I love the 'but we're special' logic. Sarajevo was a modern, hip city before it wasn't. Argentina's banking worked, before it didn't. Debtor countries have been threatened with planes grounded and medication not getting through.

It's not unthinkable, because this is a historically huge event.

Ta1kinPeace So your happy to let everybody come in and compete for housing etc and lower wages by competing for jobs with native people, that’s one way to lower living standards, still wouldn’t have to worry about Brexit then

I’m amazed at people who think they have no risk. I was going to say unless they’re abroad but if our economy tanks I’d imagine that could well have a knock on impact around the world.

I have no idea how No Deal will affect me. I’d imagine prices will rise for almost everything. I’m self employed, I offer a service that some consider luxury so I may struggle to get work in. On the other side, if people become very distressed they may be more inclined to pay me.

If we end up in a recession again, or worse, we’re potentially looking at many more years of austerity - so that’s school cuts, NHS cuts or perhaps privatisation, more poverty and the associated deaths that go with that.

It could be fine of course but I suspect it won’t be - especially with the shower of shit politicians available to govern whether a GE happens or not.

Ta1kinPeace No it doesn’t not for ordinary people as I said I can’t go to many other EU country and double, triple my salary

Hesta.

Just in time will be severely affected. If there is a need to check lorries that are not currently checked, the checks will introduced delays which cause hold-ups. The early delays may we’ll be worse, but there will still be delays going forward. This is because scrapping all trade agreements with its largest trading partner will lead to increased red tape as goods need to be checked to make sure they comply with EU standards (no chlorinated chicken, cheap chinese babymilk etc). There will be spot a checks but even a few random checks on lorries will introduce delays.

Honestly, is it really that difficult to understand that ripping up every single international trade agreement the UK has will cause problems? Why do you think these exist in the first place?

Hesta you might not benefit that way but you are aware that FOM means we are better off financially as a country don’t you?

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-workers-uk-tax-treasury-brexit-migrants-british-citizens-a8542506.html

Gawd, yes, MrsTerry. The whole, 'Tell the EU to fuck itself and they will come crawling back to us! They need us! They cannot do without us.' They can. They're already planning to.

We have no idea. That's the problem.

{1tisILeClerc Yes there maybe delays for a while but after awhile they will get through, much the same as when the French go on strike at the ports or when the farmers decide to block the ports.}

Hesta, you haven't really thought this through. Delays will be massive until new trade agreements are made, probably years in the writing.
Waiting times might be reasonable if you have 100 customs officers in their own booths to process the vehicles. A small matter of space, officers and security.

It wouldn't

Depends on how the EU country I'm living decides to move forward with residency. My partner is from outside the EU and we live in our currently location under the EU family reunification rules.

Otterturk - do you not buy anything in the shops then?