Westminstenders: Stalemate

[RedToothBrush]

After May's Meaningless Vote defeat and Corbyns Pointless Vote for Your Own Party defeat we are well and truly at Stalemate.

May has invited other parties to come and talk to her to find a compromise. Except she has so many red lines all she is asking is for everyone else to compromise whilst she gets exactly what she wants.

Corbyn made a tactical error in not initially speaking to May, so now she gets to say that its Labour who are being difficult and not wanting to work together in the national interest.

Corbyn has in addition put down the red line of saying he won't talk to May until she agrees to drop no deal. Except since no deal is the default until an alternative solution is agreed! Corbyn is expecting May to say that she would revoke if there was no alternative agreed, whilst is isn't really reasonable from a compromise point of view.

They are as bad as each other. Both too stubborn for the country to move forward. Its long been said that they were alike in this respect, but having it put to the test about which is more stubborn has the potential to destory the country in the process.

In addition to this, Leadsom has removed all other Brexit related HoC business from the schedule until after the 29th January. This is a blantant attempt to try and stop backbenchers having the opportunity to table pesky amendments which the government don't like.

The 29th January is due to be the Meaningless Vote II. Given that May has made it clear that in her head 'compromise' means 'do exactly what I want and capitulate' it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement will be represented to parliament to vote on with little change. Perhaps with a few amendments there designed to attract support, though it remains to be seen where this support will come from given the spectulator level of the rejection the HoC gave it. May's Plan is literally to run the clock down and hold a gun of no deal to the head of remain leaning MPs or to scare Brexiteers by suggesting that she might revoke or there might be an extension.

Its beyond farce.

Of course the role of the Speaker becomes paramount.

Technically speaking no bill can be presented to the HoC twice in the same parliament. Its against the rules. So how is May going to get around this, and will the Speaker indeed allow it?

The Speaker may also try and help backbenchers out by allowing amendments and motions to be tabled outside the normal rules. Normally the government alone control the majority of parliamentary time, with the opposition parties being given so many debates depending on whether they are the official opposition and then according to their size. Backbenchers don't tend to get much parliamentary time. However the Speaker's actions last week showed he was willing to be creative and bend the rules to allow backbenchers more influence and power than under normal circumstances because of the way that the Executive was trying to frustrate the house. So not timetabling any further Brexit Business between now and the 29th January seems a sure fire way to have the Government straight on course for another run in with Bercow.

So what next:

Do not forget that whatever happens May has to agree to it, or we go to no deal. Whether that be a 2nd Ref, Revoking, Staying in the Customs Union, Norway + or Any Other Alternative May has to agree to it on some level.

Backbenchers can table amendments all day long to 'guide' or put pressure on May but they may not be able stop her ultimately. Boles, Grieve, Benn and Cooper seem to be the ones to watch.

So May's stubborness is the biggest barrier and issue there is to preventing No Deal.

Corbyn, whilst he might well be very right to avoid getting sucked into May's trap, isn't helping matters with his own stubborness. His priority is party politics and stopping the Labour Party from splitting. Not solving Brexit.

There is not a shread of pragmatism nor thought for the national interest between them. Party before Country.

So we are to go through all of the last week, possibly with another vote of no confidence thrown in for good measure in another 12 days.

Won't that be fun?

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/01/will-the-dup-pave-the-way-for-a-softer-brexit/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Will the DUP pave the way for a softer Brexit?

And today's Speccy...

Yep that's the problem with Norway. Splitting the Tories.

Having last year experienced an episode of severe mental I'll health I do find myself wondering if our Government would manage to pass a mental health assessment or if they could be legally declared lacking capacity under the mental health act. They do appear to be experiencing episodes of delusional thinking, acting chaotically and failing to undertake tasks to take adequate care of themselves and those they responsible for. I'm starting to wonder if we should put the whole government into intensive therapy and ask the EU to take over decision making until they demonstrate a capacity to act in a way they is not going to cause harm to themselves and others.

I heard on the news this morning that there is a shortage of blood pressure meds and antidepressants. Which seemed unsurprising given the current situation.

Oh look. I've gone all depressing. I think I should go do some weaving.

My internet is going off for a couple of hours, so place marking now

wrt to insurance cards, I mentioned yesterday that profit margins on motor insurance are wafer thin - sometimes less than 1% (thanks to the discounting needed to entice new customers, versus the discounting needed to keep existing customers and the existence of aggregators - which is my area of expertise).

So to issue a green card insurers are either going to (a) have to pay for it and loose any profitability on a chunk of their policies, or (b) they will have to pass the cost onto the insured.

The problem with (a) is that in order to remain competitive, no insurer I know of factored any extra costs due to Brexit into their pricing. So they either have to have disappointed shareholders or risk (b).

The problem with (b) is that it will act as a discincentive for a lot of insured - that's those that have any idea of these requirements.

Either way, the end picture will be a lot of Brits driving around in Europe having sudden up close and personal experience of local law enforcement, when the need to show insurance (maybe after a knock ?)

The bottom line is up until now, no retailing companies have been able to factor Brexit into their pricing for fear of looking uncompetitive. So any additional costs Brexit is causing will probably have to come from the end customer. So I'm guessing we'll see - quite quickly given how far it is to the 29th - quite a few sudden price hikes or at the very least T&Cs changes to put any extra costs due top Brexit squarely on the customer.

Morning everyone. I still dreamt about this mess
I've just ordered my repeat medications and wondering if I can start saving some of them without compromising my health.

I'm trying to follow what happening but struggling now. What's the issue with Bercow? I seem to recall him doing something a week or so ago but missed what it was and its significance.

DGR, I already have european cover so that would presumably become invalid in the event of No Deal? In which case won't customers won't be happy at paying extra to the insurance company in order to keep the same level of cover.

I hope that question makes sense - I never drive in europe anyway so I hadn't really thought about it in great detail.

I'm probably missing something but why would Brexiters and the DUP be happy with Norway+CU when that would make us rule takers rather than "taking back control"?

This is re the speech ids gave at a leave means leave rally yesterday

Matthew Holehouse @ mattholehouse
The new constitution.

IDS says: The House of Commons, elected in July 2017, “doesn’t represent the British people any more," because they "do not believe that the British people got it right in 2016."

He adds: "This is the country that gave the world parliamentary democracy.”

Given the exact reasons May gave for calling the 2017 election, and the answer the voters gave, it's reasonable to conclude that gridlock, delay and a curbed executive was precisely what the British people wanted.

I watched Question Time for the first time since Fiona Bruce took over - God she's scary. I swear she slapped Rory Stewart. He seemed OK for a tory Is he, or has Brexit completed fuddled my perception?

And why do the Labour Party allow Diane Abbott in front of a microphone?

PMK. In awe of you all.

On a very personal note, I take care of an extremely elderly parent, and I am genuinely terrified that a hard Brexit will mean the daily medication that keeps her alive will be unattainable and the outcome will be....well, I don't have to spell it out.

My rage at the fuckwittery of our so-called politicians actually frightens me quite badly. I'm not sleeping much at the moment .

Ryanair in profit warning

www.itv.com/news/2019-01-18/ryanair-issues-profit-warning-as-lower-winter-fares-bite/
Ryanair issues profit warning as lower winter fares bite

Partly related to its strike issues and over capacity in flight routes which have produced lower than expected fares over the winter.

But flights are going to go up...

DGR, I already have european cover so that would presumably become invalid in the event of No Deal? In which case won't customers won't be happy at paying extra to the insurance company in order to keep the same level of cover.

As far as I can tell that was the Government advice. Customers are of course free to request a refund of any element of their premium that is invalidated should a no-deal happen.

I hope that question makes sense - I never drive in europe anyway so I hadn't really thought about it in great detail.

You and 90% of the UK.

Not being French (I can hazard a guess what Italy would do) it's not possible to know how this could play out. Presumably French immigration and customs officials could require all UK registered cars to produce their insurance before allowing them onto EU roads. Alternatively they could just put a sign up, and it's the individual motorists responsibility to comply. The latter is cheaper. But if hordes of Brits start racking up debts in EU fender benders, the EU27 might ask them to enforce the former.

Depending what EU state you are in, a car knock and no insurance could see you in the big house.

(Of course the converse will be true, and EU nationals will need UK-specific insurance if there's a no deal. And that bleeds into something I wondered yesterday about how a UK citizen could sue in the EU after a no-deal Brexit. Can anyone remember how it was done in the 1960s ?)

Phew! Found you! PMK

Sky news is depressing this morning, very much reinforcing the message from anybody who has seen May that she is 100% 'My door is open but my mind is closed.'

Pretty much impossible to see how we are going to get around this.

I can't see there's any significant expense (over and above the current level) for the insurer.

The situation today is that anyone with a motor policy issued in the EU is covered for legally-required minimum third-party insurance throughout the EU. So without even knowing how many of their insured are driving abroad the insurers are already subject to that risk.

The situation after a no-deal Brexit may well be that UK motorists need Green Card cover to drive in the EU but that involves no extra risk to the insurer (compared with the current situation). In fact, since most people will have to contact their insurer to get a Green Card, rather than just heading off for the ferry without telling anyone, it may well lower the insurer's risk - and would certainly mean that costs don't have to be loaded onto everyone's insurance for the benefit of those people who do drive in the EU.

But flights are going to go up...

Everything will go up. As I said upthread, no company with competition has dared add anything for Brexit into their pricing for fear of becoming uncompetitive. (Bearing in mind the UK - correctly - has very severe penalties for companies that collude in price fixing).

The closer no-deal gets; the more adjustments there will be. Smart operators will manage by quietly shrinking or reducing whatever it is they are selling (already seen this in food pricing, btw). For operations where that isn't possible, prices will have to rise.

I'm rolling the dice that few companies, and fewer individuals have paid that much attention to the T&Cs in their contracts. But you can bet they allow for additional pricing and/or exclusions in certain events ....

Customers are of course free to request a refund of any element of their premium that is invalidated should a no-deal happen.

But whether or not they receive one is a different matter altogether, especially if profit margins are very tight.

What happens with checks on the current EU land borders? They (again presumably) could get in to difficult water internationally if they start giving any kind of preferential treatment to the UK in the event of No Deal.

I can't see there's any significant expense (over and above the current level) for the insurer.

Morning Boris.

That will because you don't work in insurance then.

What happens with checks on the current EU land borders?

What checks ?

Checking that motorists have valid insurance.

There aren't any border checks across the EU. Why should there be ? It's entirely what freedom of movement is.

Sorry, I mean on the land borders between the EU and the rest of the world, not within the EU.

Thanks for your patience in explaining things - it really helps to have someone prepared to answer questions rather than sifting through information online.