What is actually likely to happen in the event of a no-deal brexit?

[KitKat1985]

So, it's looking increasingly likely we may be heading to a no-deal Brexit. What are the realistic likely consequences of this? How worried should I be?

The EU will have to make an exception.
See, this is my problem with people calling for no deal. There is all too often a lack of grasp on basic facts. It is under WTO rules that a border would need to be implemented. Nothing to do with the EU, except that they are supporting their member state by trying to get us to agree legally to never imposing a border.

Those are EU tariffs tha you pay and that thent go straight into the EU coffers.

Those are EU tariffs tha you pay and that thent go straight into the EU coffers.

No they don't they go into the coffers of the country they are paid in.

Sorry Somerville. I was wrong to make that ill-informef comment on the hard border. I apologise.

I will repeat that there cannot and should not be a hard border. If it really is impossible to make some sort of exception under WTO rules then we will have to cancel Brexit because peace is more important than economics. There must be a way though!

The ‘way’ is having a separate deal for Northern Ireland, by respecting their democratic vote (hugely in favour of GFA) and the increased rights that they have as EU citizens (if they identify as Irish, or both Irish and British) and the fact that they share a land border with rEU but not rUk. To give her her due, May tried this with the withdrawal agreement. The problem is her choice to have the DUP propping up her government- it both removed their need to get Stormont up and running again, and gave them power in UK to express their hatred of Ireland; she was never going to get them to agree to WA. She needs Stormont voting on it instead, to represent all the people of NI rather than one narrow group.

There are circumstances under which there could be brexit and protection for the unique situation of NI. Probably, either a very soft Brexit with only softish technical border in Irish Sea (easy enough as everything has to be loaded on and off ships anyway) or if a harder Brexit then NI needs to be exempt and there will have to be a very hard border in the Irish Sea - which might undermine the GfA for staunch Loyalists so could be tricky.

We move on to WTO rules, and as there seems to be some misunderstanding here about how trading under WTO and tariffs will work, this explanation by Graham Hughes, which is one of the clearest I've seen, should help:

www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1593&v=tmtAG4RtAp8

Those are EU tariffs tha you pay and that thent go straight into the EU coffers.

No they don't they go into the coffers of the country they are paid in.

No they don't. They're collected on behalf of the EU and sent on to the EU (less a proportion for our collection costs) as part of our EU 'membership fee'.

{If we leave with no deal there will be a lot of noise from the big corporations and then we'll just go on trading with the EU and other countries as we do already.}
This will definitely NOT be happening.
'No deal' means that ALL the treaties, certifications, EVERYTHING except Mr Junker's phone number gets ripped up. The UK effectively does not exist, or about as much as a bit of rock in the Atlantic.

There is no 'carrying on as before', it is legally impossible.

{I don't think Parliament will allow a no deal. Last night Yvette Cooper ( I think it was) was agitating about extending Article 50 in view of the rejection of the WA}
The UK can ASK the EU nicely for an extension but they do not have to agree to it. Leaving with No deal as I have just mentioned WILL happen on 29 March unless the UK does something.

For the time being, with a no deal, the EU will accept that customs 'leakage' across the (non) border in NI is reluctantly acceptable to uphold their assertion that there will be no hard physical border. The value of goods traversing it are pretty small in the grand scheme of things. IIRC they will insist that the 'real' border for customs is the Irish Sea. The DUP object because it makes NI 'special' while conveniently forgetting that NI is 'special' on a range of other things already.

Without meaning to stray into 'prepping' territory, do you think it's necessary to stockpile some essentials?

But we can revoke article 50 without asking the EU first, and in fact Donald tusk has suggested they'd be supportive. Why aren't we?!

"Without meaning to stray into 'prepping' territory, do you think it's necessary to stockpile some essentials?"
Stocking up at home on essentials is sensible and doesn't mean your a prepper. Please get over that. And I'm a prepper.
Loads of threads on MN about this.

I think I'm going to start buying a few extras each time I go shopping from now on. I saw an elderly couple in Sainsburys with their trolley piled high with tins earlier today. But I'm thinking that tins are one thing that we can easily stockpile as a country - surely it will be the fresh food that we'll be lacking?

What sort of things are worth getting? Obviously I'm guessing stuff produced in the UK shouldn't be an issue, and obviously not worth stocking up on fresh foods?

Anything that you use/eat/need regularly and comes from the EU, I suppose. I need to have a think and also start looking at the packaging and see where my favourite things are made ...

StealthPolarBear
Because Mrs May says no, and lots of her friends want to make loads of money by leaving.

{Anything that you use/eat/need regularly and comes from the EU, I suppose.}
Not just from the EU though as I believe a fair amount arrives in bigger ships to Rotterdam, then by lorry to the UK along with EU sources produce.

@KitKat1985 , here's just one of many threads - this is on it's second incarnation as you will see by the title
http://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/amiibeingunreasonable/3479764-To-be-surprised-that-some-friends-are-buying-extra-food-because-of-Brexit-part-2

DH works in the import/export industry and says that the main things which will be in short supply are perishable foods ie fruit/veg/ French cheese / Danish bacon - that sort of thing. It’s time to fill the freezers. Apparently bread will be OK as the U.K. has good stocks of flour.

Thank you bellinisurge.

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking too VamillaSugar. Well, I suppose we can freeze bacon, but the other things we'll just have to go without until it all gets sorted out. British cheese is pretty good, fortunately, as it will be spring, so should be plenty of home-grown fruit and veg.

The other thing I'm wondering is, is there likely to be a fuel shortage?

He hasn’t mentioned it. I’ll ask him.

I think Scottish Independence will be back on the agenda in the case of No Deal Heaven forfend