Westminstenders: What The Hell Happens Next?!

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has just spent over at an hour dealing with a Points of Order, in which he has argued that he is defending the soverignty of the House of Commons and that is his duty, not to simply to be a cheerleader for the executive.

Taking back control seems to have rather upset ERG Brexiteers.

As Jess Phillips astutely pointed out:
"People only care about procedures, and protecting and conserving the procedures, when they don't like the outcome of the thing that is about to happen and never when it is going in their favour."

And given what we have seen the Executive do over the last few months in terms of trying to use procedure for its own political gain, this is quite a fair point.

There are however certain constitutional questions this is all raising. And we have a very real constitutional crisis here.

Bercow has ruled that he CAN allow an amendment (because the previous vote had prevented only a motion and a debate) put forward by Grieve to go to a vote.

This amendment would - if it is passed by the house - require May to report to the house within 3 days if the WA fails to pass next week.

This would be a significant victory, if it passed because at present the position is where May can delay reporting back to the house until it start to get to the point where politically the opposition can't influence things, and a 'meaningful vote' will in practice be more like a gun to the head by the Executive, rather than the House of Commons acting in a sovereign manner and being free to make its own decisions rather than be forced into a corner by Parliamentary Procedure and the politicking of Parliamentary Procedure to undermine the independence of the HoC.

Allowing more time for the opposition to hold the government to account, does not necessarily change anything. It just means the executive can not just run down the clock in the way it perhaps has been intending.

The HoC could of course, vote against the amendment.

The WA is to come to the HoC next week.

And we have no idea what the hell is going to happen next.

Ah, I see:

https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/dissolution/

By law, Parliament is dissolved 25 working days before a general election.

< so roughly 5 weeks.
To have a GE on 1 April, she can't do it until about mid-Feb, I think - but that would only leave about 6 weeks for Parliament to stop No Deal >

The PM needs two thirds of the house to vote in favour of an early GE though doesn't she? I didn't think she could just call one on her own?

In theory, the Queen summons and dismisses parliament. In practice this is done by taking the advice of her "Prime" minister who is meant to have the confidence of the HoC.

In practice, who knows. I don't know if many barristers have made the intricacies of the FTPA a lifes work.

Paddypower are taking bets on what will be rationed first by the UK government in 2019.

The reason why I'm so worried about the days:

Corbyn seems very keen on a GE

and it would normally be politically difficult for an Opposition to oppose this
However, these are special circs and he could - if he wished - say May was just denying the HoC a say in Brexit

Paddypower are taking bets on what will be rationed first by the UK government in 2019.

Common sense and decency are my tips.

Re a GE.

Remember the FTPA. A election can only called with a 'super majority' of 2 thirds of the house voting for it. Or via a vote of no confidence in the government which is not followed by a vote of confidence in the next 14 days.

In theory May COULD manufacture a vote of no confidence in herself.

Otherwise it would take Labour to KNOWINGLY vote for a GE which they knew would facilitate No Deal by default through the suspension of Parliament.

It would strike me, that in this situation you could easily get Tory MPs and Labour MPs voting in confidence for May and 'defeating' May trying to no confidence herself!!!

(yes my head hurts too)

So actually the minimum / maximum time before a GE is kind of irrelevant here. The most she could do is use it to run 14 days down off the clock from 21st January in theory.

Of course there could be some other ludicrous ways she could run the clock down that I can't think of, but calling a GE isn't one that I can see working.

She could resign though. That would be fun.

Baa! Paddypower wouldn’t even take my Brexit or not bet before Xmas.

I hope Corbyn is rewriting his speech for tomorrow . The EU will extend if say a manifesto pledge is to remain in a GE but not otherwise I would think.

Recently Corbyn has been arguing for an election, still leaving with a few unicorns of his own.

Going for a GE might see us with a deault No deal if he doesn’t change his tune, simply because the HoC is dissolved.

Toblerone ...,, what an excellent idea @Mrsr8

The PM needs two thirds of the house to vote in favour of an early GE though doesn't she?

I didn't think she could just call one on her own?

The Independent article was talking about after she loses the WA vote and the then expected no confidence vote from Corbyn. Sorry I can't find the article now.

My thoughts too, re Corbyn, 2bees.

Thing is, Corbyn has this uncanny knack of making things worse, not better.

Going for a GE might see us with a deault No deal if he doesn’t change his tune, simply because the HoC is dissolved.

I'm picking up a sneaking feeling that a lot of MPs who should know better are slightly deluded and somehow think that if the UK manufactures a crisis like a GE, that somehow the EU will "do something" and extend A50 .... as if the EU was somehow directing the process. There seems to be a widespread lack of acknowledgement that A50 is an administrative process constrained by the laws of the EU.

What about her pulling the vote again?

Any actual consequences to that or just looking like a complete fool (she might be prepared to put up with that rather than be defeated and present plan B)?

I wouldn't be surprised if his speech ends up throwing a government on the ropes a lifeline.

Labour didn’t actually say they would call NCV Gardiner said "The appropriate time to table a motion of no confidence in the Govt is when the Govt loses its key legislation and no longer commands a majority in the House of Commons"

he was asked about next week but didn’t confirm.

She could indeed pull the vote - but it would be very unpopular and clearly against the will of Parliament.

🤷‍♀️

I don't think there's anything to stop her doing that, though.

I don’t think she can pull it again. It would be a tacit admission she can’t get it through. She would look very weak. It would make things worse for her.

I’m concerned personally that she may still win it if the headbangers are afraid of losing Brexit completely. They can see how the opposition to No Deal.

I didn't think she could just call one on her own?

She could have a friend on the back benches...

The Independent article was talking about after she loses the WA vote and the then expected no confidence vote from Corbyn.

What did they say would happen if there was no WA vote ?

I’ll be fancinated to see what Jeremy comes up with tomorrow.

He seems obsessed with calling a GE. But he’s not offering an alternative option. I really hope some of the saner members of the Labour Party have had an impact on him. He’s a stubborn as both my children put together though so not holding out much hope.

You know, I can imagine Corbyn doing something as mad as denouncing the Conference motion's process, absolutely stating Labour will not keep PV on the table, and will instead go wholeheartedly into s GE promising a Labour Brexit.

Which would just about fuck everything up.

May would win a no confidence vote, would re present WA and have it pass, Lab would haemorrhage support, eventual GE would deliver Con victory.

Or maybe I'm too negative.

Keri is being fab in the debate. Corbyn is gurning and twitching by his side.

Also why the hell was the Grieve (❤️) vote so close anyway.Are all of the bloody 297 no dealers who positively want to run down the clock?

Keri