Westministenders: Teetering on the edge

[RedToothBrush]

12 weeks to go.

There is rising confidence in the Extreme Brexiteer camp as well as open comments about how they can deliberately force through No Deal. Remember No Deal is the default. Every political crisis that takes up time makes no deal more likely and the ERG can just be obstructive to facilitate a political crisis. Parliament DO NOT have the ultimate power to stop Brexit - unless the government effectively allow an option to do so. And there is no sign May will let this ever happen. No Deal takes us back to pre-industrial revolution Britain in many social and economic ways. Which will please Jacob Rees-Mogg no end.

No Deal prep is now costing us a fortune - and is no where near sufficient in its scope. Won't someone think of all the extra that could have been put into the NHS.

Parliament returns next week. I hope you have enjoyed your Christmas break. What will happen in 2019 no one knows; the only certainity is turbulance and lurching from crisis to crisis. If we don't get hit by Brexit, maybe it will be the US shutdown crisis or the collaspe in the Chinese economy that will get us. Economists are nervous and thats generally not a good thing for the average person on the street.

Time to get in the euros, stock up on the tomatoes, invest in books and otherwise batten down the hatches financially whilst we await the coming storm in the hope that the forecasters are as good as Michael Fish in 1987.

Oh yes, I can understand that golden. The internal state of Britain is horrendous, and the existence of food banks in a country claiming to be one of the richest in the world is sick. I'm annoyed at our political class for not noticing as we slowly slid into this state and refusing to listen than to poorer people like that. Leavers are as broad a category as remainers, and I can be damned pissed off at some while being broadly sympathetic to others. Cameron I would like hung drawn and quartered, with Farage and BoJo next on my list.

Dangermouse yes. Cameron, Bojo etc - their motivations are obvious and playing out on a spotlit stage - couldn't stop listening to them if I tried. wealthier leavers also are all around and have loud voices and platforms. its other groups of leave voters that I want to listen to and understand - particularly those on low incomes or those who live in economically stagnant areas.

Makes sense to me. The referendum was not bound by normal voting wards, which are what causes a huge discrepancy in Britain between popular vote percentages and actual MP representation in Westminster. I've been saying for years that the way UKIP won 10% of the popular vote but had only 1 MP should be a national scandal. If the concerns of ordinary people had been listened to before - for instance everyone knows of the housing market now, but it has been gathering for years before it started to affect the middle classes, likewise with the problem of our educational arms race and fees - then perhaps politicians and tabloid media wouldn't have been so quick to blame the EU for everything.

Funny how politicians rigged the AV vote and got it thrown out in favour of FPTP, but were quite happy to pick up on the straight voting performance in the referendum isn't it?

But the politicians aren't listening now to those who voted wanting change. If they were May would be sending teams round the country to talk to people. In fact, didn't the UN just do that, and the results were not happy reading for the Tories, so they just dismissed the findings out of hand?

Not talking about the politicians listening. Im talking about us listening. all of us starting to listen to each other.

That's certainly necessary and long overdue. I sit off to one side of these appalling divides and yell at everyone tbh! Is there a plan behind this?

But if we do listen to each other, then what? We have to make the politicians listen.

So some people voted Leave thinking that things couldn't get worse, but I assume hoping that it would get better. What do we do, don't tell them that it could indeed get worse, like the dire poverty some people endured during the first half of the last century or do we just shut up?

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
Cross-party group of 200 MPs, led by @spelmanc and @JackDromeyMP, will tell Theresa May to rule out leaving without agreement (nearly two dozen Tories have signed up) >

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6563023/amp/More-200-MPs-tell-Theresa-rule-leaving-without-agreement.html?ito=amp_twitter_share-top&__twitter_impression=true
Commons revolt over No Deal: More than 200 MPs will tell Theresa May to rule out leaving without an agreement even if her proposals are rejected

That's a long way short of a majority. 317 is your magic number. Though I'm led to believe many snp MPs are not included in this tally and would be of a similar mindset

Faisal Islam@faisalislam
22 Tory MPs including PPSs, trade envoys, grandees among 209 MPs signing joint cross party letter from Caroline Spelman/Jack Dromey “must not crash out of EU without a deal. We urge the Government to agree a mechanism that would ensure a ‘No Deal’ Brexit could not take place”

... Tory 22 include Spelman, Boles, Soames, Letwin, Vaizey, Keegan, ex Trade Minister Garnier, Trade Envoy R Graham... more than enough rebels to win vote. As opposing No Deal is manifesto policy of Labour, LDs, Plaid, SNP and Greens it seems highly likely there’s a Commons maj..

At this stage the 209 MPs are
162 Labour,
22 Tory,
18 SNP,
5 Lib Dem
and 4 Plaid.

“we had to send a clear message tomorrow before a fortnight of key debates commencing on Tuesday with the Finance Bill” said one signatory.

Faisal Islam@faisalislam
By the way all this blazingly obvious since 2017 General Election - indeed I wrote 30 Tory MPs had already told Government they could not support No Deal Brexit, just after June 2017 election- many who I spoke to then not on this list yet. Ministers too.

“Let's debunk this idea that all Leavers are poor and need something to cling on to.”

Neither are all Leave voters selfish, greedy disaster capitalists.

There were Leavers and Remainers from all walks of life, from all political parties. It’s important to listen to and understand the reasons from those who are feeling betrayed right now. But if you won’t listen to them, how can you hope to persuade them?

So does this mean No Deal has a de facto majority?

How is that Quietrebel?

It looks like that was signed by a representation of MPs across the party's. The SNP are all opposed but only 18 signed. There's also cabinet ministers that didn't sign who have said they'd resign in the case of a no deal. It looks as if no deal has no majority.

Momentum for blocking no deal is building it seems....

Revoke. Revoke. Revoke.

And also an interesting tweet/thread from Henry Newman twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1082042711698534402?s=19

If Yvette Coopers etc finance bill also passes that would stop the govt from doing literally anything. No deal is the default but it looks as if moves are being made now.

Blocking No deal having a majority means what in practice? They still need to find a way to actually do it without it being the default option.

GD12
I was referring to RTB's earlier post about the 209 Mps ready to oppose no deal. I can't decide if it' s a good or bad sign. If it's only them, then 209 is not the majority. I hope more of them would oppose it.

They can't block it Red tooth but it seems they can vote down bits of legislation required for a "managed" no deal, they'll literally vote down any legislation required to implement it. See the Henry Newman tweet. His thinking is it rules it out as an option. I don't know.

Quietrebel I know it's "only" 200 but that's not all of them. As I said, all SNP MPs are entirely against it and would all block it and only 18 signed and then there's the cabinet ministers entirely against it and they didn't sign so overall there's a majority. I think it's more a large cross party "show of strength".

I certainly hope that's right GD12. I've realised I've turned into a complete pessimist recently which was never like me. I sort of crush any hope before it reaches my brains!

I don't know if this has already been shared, sorry if it has. It's a list which shows the impact brexit is already having on the UK.

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1081836120617439233.html?fbclid=IwAR2dRtKXyPcu7B2_KRLSmpit2ZliKWs5xTr9vU_MqapjtSy_ey3ZIOLw234

So tragic and unnecessary.

I know Quietrebel it's demoralising and depressing. I think from reading Twitter that the 200 is very big and there's no majority for a no deal. I don't know what'll happen though 😮