Westminstenders: Welcome to 2019

[RedToothBrush]

Welcome to 2019.

Bit of a different thread starter; instead of me speculating what are your predictions for the coming year politically? Will be interesting to see how people are viewing things right now.

How is Brexit going to play out?

Who is going to be framed as the scapegoat for whatever scenario you think likely?

What are going to be the biggest political issues that the media / politicians push (as opposed to what the real issues are)?

What is going to be the most shocking thing that will happen either here or abroad?

What will happen with Trump?

Who will be the next Tory leader and when?

Whats on the cards for the various political parties in general?

I think this will all be sorted amicably in the end with benefits for both sides.

THAT was a tongue in cheek post just to mention, I hate the thought of leaving the EU, but it is out of my hands now.

I was chatting to a true blue Scottish Unionist at a Hogmanay Party. He's currently living in Paris but will be retiring soon and moving back to Scotland as he doesn't want to live in France in his old age away from family (his comment was that unless you married to a French person and/or have kids going through the French education system, you're never truly integrated).

Despite his self-avowed Unionism, as of 30 March, if the UK leaves the EU, he will be voting for independence. He can't stand the SNP - but as long as they continue to support future EU (or EFTA) membership, he will vote for independence which is, after all, not a vote for the SNP

I confess BCF, I was/am(? ) a Corbyn supporter and I still like some of his policies. But I hate his Brexit policy and finding him quite stubborn which is not a good trait.

Even more complicated - JIT manufacturers need their components not just in time, but in the right sequence

Toyota deputy managing director Tony Walker gave evidence to the HoC business select committee last month:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/04/toyota-no-deal-brexit-warning-uk-factories-10m-a-day

Tony Walker said disruption to its supply chain as a result of the UK crashing out of the EU would put its Deeside and Burnaston plants on “stop-start” production for weeks or months, putting jobs and wages in jeopardy.

He told the business select committee
the issue was not only that Toyota had truckloads of parts dispatched daily across the Dover-Calais route,
but that they came over the Channel in a specific order tied to the production sequence.

“We do not just have the 50 trucks, we have to have them in sequence, it is no good if we have 49 trucks and truck 17 is missing,”
he said. “[Production] will then stop.

So without the withdrawal agreement and withdrawing with a no deal, we would have stop-start production for weeks, possibly months.
It would be very, very difficult for us to cope with.

“The value of the cars we make is £10m a day.
If we lose that sort of value it’s very, very challenging for us.”

Toyota came to Britain 30 years ago at the invitation of Margaret Thatcher, he told MPs.

He said Japanese businesses were “disappointed” with Brexitt* because the former prime minister had persuaded them to set up in the UK as their European hub

“[She said] come to the UK because this is the place you can build cars as part of the EU and you can export to the EU.”

I confess BCF, I was/am(? ) a Corbyn supporter blush and I still like some of his policies. But I hate his Brexit policy and finding him quite stubborn which is not a good trait.

Unless it's "good" stubbornness ? I'm sure we applaud the stubbornness of anti-apartheid activists ? (Which is probably the same sentiment driving Corbyn).

It's nothing personal - I'm sure he's a decent human being. But he's not the man for the job.

Whatever happened to "Cometh the hour ...." ?

Did anyone else not realise that ex-MPs can still enjoy subsidised boozy meals at the HoC ? 🤔
I didn't

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/02/david-cameron-barred-from-parliament-after-failing-to-renew-pass

Cameron was among more than 400 former politicians with a security pass for the parliamentary estate, allowing him to use the subsidised facilities, including part-funded food and drink in the exclusive Strangers bar.

But Cameron has fallen off the list after not renewing his pass.
< he really is a careless bastard >
....
The Daily Mail, which reported the story, said Cameron’s team expected parliamentary officials to contact them when the pass needed renewing.
< and as entitled as ever >

Since Mrs T gets a mention above, I think it's only fair to note that even she trumps Corbyn when it comes to give/take.

She's probably much closer to Rees-Mogg in heart. But she also knew what was the best for the U - repeat -U UK

See also: AIDS ....

I don't think Corbyn is any more decent than the average MP
In fact I think he's quite ruthless about ignoring inconvenient things like antisemitism, in his pursuit of power for the left.

The Daily Mail, which reported the story, said Cameron’s team expected parliamentary officials to contact them when the pass needed renewing.

Compare and contrast with any government department ... who then penalise you for not notifying them (or if they lose the notification).

I don't think Corbyn is any more decent than the average MP

I'm an armchair student ...

MrsT did not personally stand to gain massive windfall profits from her policies.
She was ruthless and heartless, but not corrupt

MrsT did not personally stand to gain massive windfall profits from her policies. She was ruthless and heartless, but not corrupt

"Strange days indeed ... (most peculiar mama)"

She was also highly competent, focused and organised
(she lost her fine political imstincts in the early 1990s, which imo was an early sign of the Alzheimers 10 years later)

{He also revealed for the first time publicly that less than 20% of car parts the company used were British. This would present a problem under any future trade arrangements with Britain because most trade deals around the world require 50% of a product to originate from the country of import, he said.}
Also from the Toyota article.
Trade origins are a subtle problem when trading which will probably be missed by the flippant comments of 'just work on WTO rules' that some like to bandy about. If the UK is going to magically make things to sell it will need to factor in the rules of origin.

Just back from a meal out with relatives (in their late 60s).

Two voted Remain, two voted leave - on regretted it instantly the other has until now been maintaining Brexit can work.

Apparently the Daily Mail is telling people they need to stockpile for Brexit. The vocal Leave supporter was extremely quiet about the whole topic - almost mute.

This has given me more hope than anything that revoking article 50 could really happen.

It’s starting. BBC local tv news just had a story about pharmacies having trouble getting hold of thirty drugs due to a brexit effect. Person would not appear on camera.

I had hope Corbyn was different this was pre ref and pre singing "Oh Jeremy Corbyn" to the tune of white stripes.

I still think he's different but going without vinegar on your chips sort of different.

I am not daring to hope until May does decide to revoke A50. Will it shut the Leavers in the Tory party up? At least they won't be able to do anything to oust her for nine months.

cherry any list going round of what meds?

No deal publicity blitz starting next week apparently.

twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1080594570499579905?s=19

No they didn’t name which drugs. Pharmacists were spending up to two hours a day ringing round trying to source drugs.

'Brace yourself'? Surely the Express doesn't expect the economy to crash? What happened to the easiest deals in history, they need us more than we need them, blah de blah de blah?

I have often had to wait for Baclofen and creon in the dosage I need. Not sure if that's because of upcoming brexit as this has been going on for quite a while. Also its not rare to have to go back for rest of prescription when they don't have enough for a months supply of a particular medication.

Baclofen for condition similar to MS to help with spasms and Creon, an enzyme I have to put on my food to aid my body to break down my food.( knackered pancreas due to misdiagnosis for 17 years).

FWIW I have a family member who works for the pharmacy IT dept in the NHS in Scotland. She says they have around 4-6 weeks of meds stockpiled in a specific city in Scotland (even gave me the location of the warehouse but don't want to mention where just incase) some meds however they only have around 7 days worth and they need the just in time supply. She has no doubt they'll run out of critical meds. Pretty much what we've been hearing.