Westminstenders: Welcome to 2019

[RedToothBrush]

Welcome to 2019.

Bit of a different thread starter; instead of me speculating what are your predictions for the coming year politically? Will be interesting to see how people are viewing things right now.

How is Brexit going to play out?

Who is going to be framed as the scapegoat for whatever scenario you think likely?

What are going to be the biggest political issues that the media / politicians push (as opposed to what the real issues are)?

What is going to be the most shocking thing that will happen either here or abroad?

What will happen with Trump?

Who will be the next Tory leader and when?

Whats on the cards for the various political parties in general?

Not straight after, but when the dust starts to settle and the Unicorns are not skipping across the rainbow grass ....

A good idea belongs to everybody
A bad idea was always somebody elses

Mrsr8

I suspect many will say, well, I did vote leave, but not like this. It should have been xyz, but the remoaners/EU/government/metropolitan elites etc. etc. didn't support it enough, so we've been left with this mess.

I agree @Mrsr8 . There are only so many posts you can hide on social media though.
Much as I have a fairly cordial relationship with one particular Leaver I know, I'm rather looking forward to how she will spin the economic chaos she and people like her will have caused. And a couple of family members too.

People like surferjet won't be able to claim they didn't vote Leave. Not like this, perhaps, but that as far as I am aware, was never defined.

Surfer jet can name change.

I suspect many will say, well, I did vote leave, but not like this.

At which point, the answer is "Bullshit !".

We've had over two years of Leavers insisting they knew what they were voting for. Only those that have changed their mind prior to this can claim that defence.

I wonder if the Festive period was acting like a dam holding back bad news ? I pray not, but LinkedIn and Facebook are busy today.

In the event of a 'Revoke', who picks up the tab for the billions the EU have been forced to pay against their will for the preparations, such as the few thousand extra customs and security staff, new dock infrastructure etc?
It is not quite a 'whoops we have changed our mind' which had it been said in July or August 2016 before serious money had been spent would have been 'acceptable'.

After the WA is voted down mid-January (only the first time of a few attempts) the markets & Sterling may start to slide
If No Deal is still possible by the beginnng of March, this will worsen and some large businesses may be scared enough to issue largescale redundancies

LeClerc Those who spent money on prepping, whether businesses or foreign governments, just have to suck up the loss if we end up staying.

That's why so many have put it off until now.

LeClerc
In the event of a 'Revoke', who picks up the tab for the billions the EU have been forced to pay against their will for the preparations, such as the few thousand extra customs and security staff, new dock infrastructure etc?
Its been spent out of contingency budgets.
Its as past as the Crimean War
The EU would be so pleased with a revoke they would not care

Those who spent money on prepping, whether businesses or foreign governments, just have to suck up the loss if we end up staying.

Hence their lack of interest in the UKs fate now. Better to spend that money, and dump the UK.

In my professional life, I've always maintained that once you look for another job, you crossed the Rubicon and there's nothing that should cause you to change that decision. I'd much rather work for someone that has spotted my abilities and is prepared to pay for them, rather than work for someone who needs "nudging" to see my worth.

I wonder if that attitude is prevalent at a state level ?

I suspect many will say, well, I did vote leave, but not like this. It should have been xyz, but the remoaners/EU/government/metropolitan elites etc. etc. didn't support it enough, so we've been left with this mess.

Which should be called out on the basis it doesn't square with "we hold all the cards" and "they need us more than we need them".

Not a great one for New Years Resolutions, but I think calling out Brexit bullshit when I hear it should be one.

As a comparator, at the very start of the single market, I was working in Customs Clearance at Dover.
We had to move from the old manual C16 to the groovy new electronic C88 clearance systems and forms.

At least two systems were parallel run for several months (at huge cost to everybody) and then binned before the right one was adopted.

Those sunk costs allowed the right outcome to be reached.
The EU regards its Brexit planning as an acceptable sunk cost to get to the correct outcome.

So the new customs officials that have been hired and trained by various EU countries will be made redundant again.
Ah, British passports, your queue is over there sir,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.

So the new customs officials that have been hired and trained by various EU countries will be made redundant again.
No. They have not been hired. They have been redeployed. And they will be redeployed back.

In the UK if Brexit is cancelled, hopefully lots of Civil Servants will be redeployed out to regions to deal with the real issues
I wish

In the UK if Brexit is cancelled, hopefully lots of Civil Servants will be redeployed out to regions to deal with the real issues

Alternatively, if Brexit is not cancelled - deal or not - the next five years will be taken up dealing with the fallout. There will be absolutely no spare resource for anything else. Even if there were the political will, which there isn't.

I was meaning staff taken on in the EU, not the UK.

If only I was as articulate and quick-thinking as you, DGR. Unfortunately, I get so damn mad with these people my brain goes Tilt and I end up spluttering in rage.

Still, I'm going to adopt your New year's resolution and keep on calling bullshit, even if I use a bludgeon, rather than the scalpel of reasoned dissection.

LeClerc
I was meaning staff taken on in the EU, not the UK.
So am I.
French and UK customs officers at the Channel ports work EXTREMELY closely together.
Its been a redeployment not a recruitment from what I hear on the jungle drums

DGR
There will be absolutely no spare resource for anything else.
Sadly I utterly agree.
Even simple "SI" type legislation is all stuck in limbo and will stay that way.
Brexit will make things worse not better.

If anyone is in London for the next couple of weeks and is feeling a bit beaten down, I can recommend the 'I Object' exhibition at the British Museum. It's a reminder of protest and survival throughout history.

Also some interesting quiet protest ideas to be gleaned from it

One things age brings, is a lessening of the will - or ability - to deal with morons, cretins, and numpties. Life really is too short.

Maybe it's because it's difficult to define, there's no single concept of pushing back against bullshit - in particular "received wisdom bullshit" which drowns us all.

Using these very boards as an exemplar (why travel) there is a thread where the OP is frantic with worry because they did some cocaine, once. Almost every poster was "not to worry, no hard done". Which seems rather at odds with the "my neighbour smoked a spliff" and the general "hand the bastard" response

There's also a deeply unpleasant thread where the OPs GPs have taken in a refugee, and instead of praise for the Christian spirit, there's a slew of "probably a paedo" posts to justify the OP not taking her DC to see the GPs

On the flip side DB bought a 4-bed (all ensuite) 2-kitchen house in 2 acres of land in the US for £250,000 or thereabouts. And bless, he's making it levelly accessible.

I did suggest the land would be great for growing hemp, given the recent change in US policy.