Westminstenders: A vote too far?

[RedToothBrush]

The ECJ have ruled that the UK can unilaterally revoke A50.

There maybe lots of other news today, but that's the big one.

May has her big vote tomorrow. Or does she.

Will she survive until the end of the week?

From the article:

“It remains in the hands of the UK to decide that we don’t end up in a no-deal scenario,” Varadkar said. “The option is there to revoke article 50, the option is there to extend article 50, and where there may not be a majority for anything, or at least any deal at the moment in the House of Commons, I do believe there’s a majority that the UK should not be plunged into a no-deal scenario and it is in their hands at any point in time to take the threat of no-deal off the table either by revoking article 50 or, if that’s a step too far, by extending it.

Ok have I caught up so what could happen is this ....

Tories have 48 letters which then means someone out of the ERG could take over ... but nobody wants that which means If that happens the labour maybe be able to win a no confident vote with the other tories backing leading to a general election ?

So am I right in thinking that a no confidence vote in the PM by the Conservatives is different to a no confidence vote in the Government by the opposition party? If so, could Labour still submit a vote of no confidence?

If not, does it make any difference who is leader?

Yes. If somebody reasonable is leader then, after the W.A fails they will look at all options and maybe create a national govt or go for a people's vote. they would listen to parliament - and there is not enough support in parliament for no deal to go through formally, so we would be looking at revocation or extension.

If it is May in charge, then she will not listen - she will delay and prevaricate - but I do believe she would blink at the last minute rather than let us go over a cliff edge.

If it is a brexiteer in charge then they will just go for no deal and there's rock all parliament can do about it.

None of this speculation-Corbyn’s debate, the vote, the possibility of 48 letters etc-has made my BBC News app!

Leadership contest is going to be carnage. Which would be fine if we weren't sorta in the middle of something

I would normally quite enjoy watching the Tories rip themselves apart, but not right now.

I’ve always had a dream that one day TM will turn around to everyone and say

“Right you’ve been warned, I said you risk no Brexit at all and that’s what you are getting.”
And then revoking Article 50. I’m guessing that dream dies a death now? (not that it was ever more than a dream)

Anyone else just think we are fucked no matter what now 🤷‍♀️

Would a parliamentary vote motion of no confidence trigger a general election, or could a national government be formed short term to make a decision Brexit?

I feel a bit like we are at a stage where pretty much anything could happen.

Tories have 48 letters which then means someone out of the ERG could take over ... but nobody wants that which means If that happens the labour maybe be able to win a no confident vote with the other tories backing leading to a general election ?

That's the straw I'm clutching at. Though it would probably require an extension of article 50 and I'm not sure exactly who would sort that out whilst all the in fighting was happening.

Right but surely someone has to step in a say that a leader/ party Or whatever that is whipped together due to TM being ousted doesn’t have the public vote to carry anything via brexit though ??

So Corbyn has a better chance of getting ERG out than Theresa may

I think even if she faces a no confidence vote as leader of her party, TM remains PM until she either steps down, or someone else forms a government. Like Gordon Brown was still PM after losing a general election until the tories and lib dems got their coalition sorted.

Meanwhile ...over the Irish Sea

http://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/51853

Myself and Pearse Doherty spoke with Theresa May for 20 minutes this evening during which we raised concerns about her course of action.
“We told the British Prime Minister that the basic protections contained in the backstop are non-negotiable and cannot be unpicked or diluted.

“We raised concerns that we are facing into a no deal or a crash brexit which would be a disaster for Ireland. And we reminded Mrs May that, in those circumstances, a Unity Referendum must be called as a matter of urgency.
“As I told the Taoiseach today, Irish Unity is the ultimate contingency to protect our interests in the event of a crash brexit.”

There would be No Opposition vote of No Confidence unless there were sufficient Tory defections such that they could not form a Government (with the DUP) which could command a majority.

To succeed Labour need Tory / DUP votes which they won't get, especially if the new Leader has been endorsed by the Membership or if there is a Crisis candidate to manage the process of shelving the Withdrawal Agreement.

A thought occurred to me (unusual).
Maybe since RTB is so good at this 'predicting' stuff it is actually her ideas that are being picked up by May and co and they are making the narrative into a reality?

So Corbyn has a better chance of getting ERG out than Theresa may

In a world where the sensible tories put country before part? Yes. In the real world that we live in... I certainly wouldn't want to put money on it. Frankly, I'm praying either that the number of letters has been over exaggerated (again) or that TM wins a no confidence vote.
The alternative is terrifying (and wastes time we don't have.)
The idea that Labour could oust an ERG PM is a very desperate straw clutch - not anything to be banked on.

I have not got to the end of Yanis Varoufakis's book yet, but has any of you had the impression that the EU / Troika has capitulated to Greece's demands?

Which book? And The Weak Suffer What They Must? No, the Troika screwed Greece over. Adults In The Room? No, the Troika screwed Greece over. All to keep 2 banks, Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas, solvent.

It’s amazing that the situation is so desperate that people are hoping TM would win the contest. Which, IIRC, was exactly the feeling in the Tory leader context in 2016. Relief that it was her. But now we know more about her and still she seems the lesser of evils. That Tory party... must be shit.

Now what about this thought? A leadership contest is triggered, and while it’s taking place, TM is still de facto leader. So as her parting gift to the nation, she writes an A50 revocation letter before she is deposed. To prevent certain successors forcing No Deal.

Well, it’s nice to dream...

Yes! Hester genius. She revokes in the morning and is outed in the afternoon.

This lady is not for revoking.

1tis I can't believe that those who brief the PM don't dip into social media including MN to get a feel for the ideas that are being debated.

I've just had one of those moments of clarity when it seems clear to me that this epic clusterfuck will lead to the break up of the U.K.

After all the current NI and Scotland union arrangements with England have only been around for 100 and 300 years respectively. I think on the current path it's just a matter of time.

DoctorTwo Exactly. Where did Leadsom get her ideas about the EU giving huge last-minute concessions to Greece?!

Apparently the Chief Whip has just arrived at No 10, just in time for TM's return from Brussels, but late for a social visit...

But TM wasn't voted in as leader last time. She was last woman standing when everyone else backed away.

ERG don't actually want to lead, they just want to shout from the sidelines and not have any responsibility.