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Brexit
Original poster

Westminstenders: A vote too far?

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 10/12/2018 09:16

The ECJ have ruled that the UK can unilaterally revoke A50.

There maybe lots of other news today, but that's the big one.

May has her big vote tomorrow. Or does she.

Will she survive until the end of the week?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
18
howabout · 11/12/2018 21:17

No way for Opposition to call No Confidence if Govt Party have done it themselves (I think?) - they need Tory votes and DUP and they will be brokering internally surely.

TheEmojiFormerlyKnownAsPrince · 11/12/2018 21:18

WA?
TM-Theresa May
ERG?
PV Peoples vote

IsobelKarev · 11/12/2018 21:20

Withdrawal Agreement
European Research Group?

Original poster
RedToothBrush · 11/12/2018 21:22

So WA falls with TM. Given time frame surely only 2 options are
1) No Deal
2) Revoke Art 50
ERG unlikely to hand Art 50 extension power to EU and doesn't suit optics for PV either.

More or less.

Think of the deals that candidates will be making to secure crucial votes for the leadership.

If you vote for me I promise x for Brexit.

It means it unlikely that a remain nor an ERG candidate would win on the MP votes alone. If the ERG can push a candidate to the party, a hard right MP could win but a remain one couldn't.

This is going to be more backstabby than the last if May loses.

OP posts:
TheEmojiFormerlyKnownAsPrince · 11/12/2018 21:23

Thanks for your help.

Can’t think clearly in the mayhem😖

howabout · 11/12/2018 21:23

Sorry Withdrawal Agreement falls with May. Time runs out 29 March so no time to start at square 1. Therefore New Leader would have a No Power to renegotiate, (unless David Davis actually did have an Agreed Deal in his Desk as he claims). Hence either commits to No Deal or proposes Revoke Article 50 and start again.

The other route is to ask the EU for an extension but this requires unanimous approval of EU27 and why would they grant untimelimited extension just to end up where we are again? Why would we want them to?

Icantreachthepretzels · 11/12/2018 21:23

Withdrawal agreement - the vote that was supposed to happen today but didn't.
ERG - European Research Group - Jacob Rees Moggs cabal of no deal headbangers.

If an ERG PM gets in - and that drives sensible tories away in droves so that the govt is a minority unable to achieve anything (wonder what that would be lik Hmm) then labour can go for no confidence with them. There will be no need to do it for TM if the tories do it for them - but there is no reason they can't then go after whoever takes her place.

Original poster
RedToothBrush · 11/12/2018 21:24

Laura Kuenssberg@bbclaurak
No 10 sources say they haven't heard anything yet from Sir Graham - let's all say it once again together, we won't know for sure until he makes an announcement

OP posts:
BiglyBadgers · 11/12/2018 21:24

Leadership contest is going to be carnage. Which would be fine if we weren't sorta in the middle of something.

howabout · 11/12/2018 21:24

Red can type faster than me Grin

Alwaysbekind2014 · 11/12/2018 21:25

This Is all getting a bit silly 😳

BiglyBadgers · 11/12/2018 21:27

Small question. I had a thought the no confidence caused by the letters was for the leader specifically, but labours would be no confidence in the government to be able to govern properly, collective responsibility and all. Is this right or would labours be for the leader as an individual?

Original poster
RedToothBrush · 11/12/2018 21:29

This Is all getting a bit silly

I think we reached that point in October 2016. We are so far beyond that my phone auto types the twitter handle of just about every political journo in the UK.

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Icantreachthepretzels · 11/12/2018 21:32

I think it's for the government - or the policies of the government. So it doesn't matter what the tories do re: TM - labour can still table a motion of no confidence if they think they can win it, regardless of who is the PM. But they would more likely win it if it was a PM that the sensible tories had no confidence in to the point that they would prefer Corbyn in charge. An ERG PM may be just such the person to bring that about.

howabout · 11/12/2018 21:33

Bigly I think you are correct. However if the Tories depose May they depose her Government and then get first chance to form another one (with the DUP) as the majority party. Opposition can't vote No Confidence in a Government already deposed is my understanding.

This is why all the game playing with the SNP etc and Peoples' Vote and Labour today. This is probably also why the 48 Letters are in. Anna Soubry and co appear to be choosing Party over Peoples' Vote as was pretty obvious they always would.

Mrsr8 · 11/12/2018 21:33

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Original poster
RedToothBrush · 11/12/2018 21:33

Is this right or would labours be for the leader as an individual?

No. It would be that May no longer had the authority to form a government.

So effectively would be against the party in her name in practice though based on her personal authority.

The PM goes to the Queen to state they have the authority and the numbers to form an effective government thus the PM's personal word and authority bonds them to the Queen and to their government.

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howabout · 11/12/2018 21:34

In other news according to Faisal Islam:

"Theresa May held a 20 minute get to know you session at the embassy with new CDU leader, and pole position for Merkel replacement Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer @AKK ... acc to German press... long term relationship building..."

As I said previously Merkel is no longer in charge.

Apileofballyhoo · 11/12/2018 21:35

Does it actually make any difference who is leader? TM can't seem to get the current WA through, which means no deal... could a different leader get it through? If not, does it make any difference who is leader? Can any of the crazies/ERG/disaster capitalists get enough votes to become leader?

GD12 · 11/12/2018 21:37

@ProfJeffKenner

Extension or revocation of Art 50 getting very close now

At least he's hopeful!

1tisILeClerc · 11/12/2018 21:40

{We are so far beyond that my phone auto types the twitter handle of just about every political journo in the UK.}
If it was a very smart phone it would call the pizza place and order in extra gin too.

Original poster
RedToothBrush · 11/12/2018 21:41

Going to put new thread up now even though there are 4 pages left.

It's late and I think you guys may need it before I'm up.

Please fill this one first! Simply cos tomorrow is going to be crackers and I think will need all the posting space we can get.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3449020-Westminstenders-Dear-Santa-for-Christmas-Id-like?watched=1

OP posts:
BiglyBadgers · 11/12/2018 21:41

Thanks guys. It was just a niggly technical question that was bugging the nerd in me. I hadn't quite clicked that when the Tories chucked out May she was the government.

Wouldn't it be a bit of a bother if they ousted their own government only to find that when they got a new leader sorted they no longer had a majority the form a new one because the DUP wouldn't play nice with the new guy. Presumably this is possible.

TheEmojiFormerlyKnownAsPrince · 11/12/2018 21:42

Mogg for pm?🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮