Westminstenders: A vote too far?

[RedToothBrush]

The ECJ have ruled that the UK can unilaterally revoke A50.

There maybe lots of other news today, but that's the big one.

May has her big vote tomorrow. Or does she.

Will she survive until the end of the week?

Laura Kuenssberg @ bbclaurak
Hearing that SirGraham Brady has asked to see the PM after #pmqs tmrw, and multiple sources, including senior tories and a cabinet minister, telling us tonight they believe the threshold of 48 letters has been reached - v unlikely to be any confirmation until tomorrow

If Kuenssberg is saying this...

... Its on.

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
Hearing that SirGraham Brady has asked to see the PM after #pmqs tmrw, and multiple sources, including senior tories and a cabinet minister, telling us tonight they believe the threshold of 48 letters has been reached - v unlikely to be any confirmation until tomorrow

Harry Cole @mrharrycole
🚨 Sounds like it is on like donkey kong. Downing Street sources 🤔🤨☹️ tonight... could be an eloborate flushing out exercise but sceptical.

Sigh

However from 1min ago

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn
Latest: friends of Graham Brady STILL say he has no plans to make a statement about a confidence vote on PM's leadership. Health warning: this could change at any time, but as of right now, the 48 letters appear not yet in.

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
Hearing that Owen Patterson has put in a letter of No Confidence and will go public tonight

Does the submission of 48 letters guarantee a no confidence vote within the party?

Or is it up to the chairman of 1922 to decide if or when to hold a no confidence vote?

I've just realised I've not even placematted on this thread yet.

Just as there was cause for a tiny bit of optimism, it turns into a car crash within 24 hours...

Donald Tusk @eucopresident
Long and frank discussion with PM @theresa_may ahead of #Brexit summit. Clear that EU27 wants to help. The question is how.

Berlaymonster @berlaymonster
Reminder, in EU diplospeak it goes:

Fruitful - Chilly
Frank & constructive - Icy
Long & frank - Fucking Arctic

Does the submission of 48 letters guarantee a no confidence vote within the party

Yes.

I am expecting a new thread early tomorrow

And another later in the day.

So grasping at straws here: Corbyn hasn't gone for a no confidence vote because he does not believe he will win it. It would require conservative mps to vote with him - against their own party - and bring about a GE, risking their own seats. But ... if the tories get rid of TM and bring a head banger in, who is clearly intent on no deal - is there any chance that the soft brexit/ remain tories would resign the whip and vote with Corbyn and every one else to bring down a govt led by the ERG?

It seems like the only possibility for avoiding no deal if TM goes and any brexiteer replaces her.

Christopher Hope@christopherhope
Sounds like the 48 threshold fo a vote of no confidence in in the PM has been breached. Too many MPs and other sources now saying it. But ... crucially no confirmation from Sir Graham Brady yet.

James Forsyth @jgforsyth
Two putative leadership campaigns believe that the letters are in, as does one close May ally

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
My sources telling me they think the 48 letters have been breached but only Sir Graham knows

All this isn't good for my anxiety!

Sky news reporting that a no deal could seriously bugger EU banking as loans and derivatives? worth trillions are not yet transferred to the EU. Seen as possible 'leverage'.
Sounds very nasty tactics.

Shitting myself here. Are we going to get Mogg or Boris as leader.

I can’t bear to think about. Is there any glimmer of light?

I’m sort of watching this whole thing in a sort of petrified, yet fascinating horror😭

The ERG want several things:

1. to ensure whoever the PM is, they will not under any circumstances revoke A50.
2. to break the 21st Jan deadline

There is no incentive for them to settle the leadership amongst MPs and not go to the party.

Thus if May loses a no confidence vote, despite what's being said about a unity ERG candidate there is actually incitive to have multiple candidates to drag the whole thing out as long as possible.

It'd be fascinating if our jobs/food/medicine weren't in the line! Dear God.

Fascinated is perhaps the wrong word😭.

Wtaf perhaps puts it better! It’s just surreal

What's her name....Justine Greening? She said something sensible re brexit didn't she?

No idea about her other than that.

I take it shes not popular in party.

Lol, yeah. 😥😥

{It'd be fascinating if our jobs/food/medicine weren't in the line! Dear God.}
I suppose this is a hi tec version of watching cock fighting...
Add your own punchline.

So WA falls with TM. Given time frame surely only 2 options are

1. No Deal
2. Revoke Art 50 ERG unlikely to hand Art 50 extension power to EU and doesn't suit optics for PV either.

I think Tory MPs will go to the Party too. Not doing so last time and appointing TM is the root of the division. For the same reason don't think will run clock down to No Deal.

Howabout,could you rewrite that without the acronyms?! 😬

Still desperately searching for a chunk of light, and hoping your post might confirm
this😭