Westminstenders: A vote too far?

[RedToothBrush]

The ECJ have ruled that the UK can unilaterally revoke A50.

There maybe lots of other news today, but that's the big one.

May has her big vote tomorrow. Or does she.

Will she survive until the end of the week?

{Salt at the ready! A senior ERG MP tells me they believe Graham Brady has 53 letters}
But a couple are old gas bills and some are Christmas shopping lists that got in the wrong envelope.

If there are no legal contingencies in place, surely if TM steps down (or is forced to go due to a no confidence vote) those likely to take her place are pretty hard line brexit and no deal becomes ever more likely?

Current road map

{"Yes Prime Minister" would have rejected all this Brexit saga as being too silly a plot even for TV}
Yes Prime minister meets 'Last of the summer wine', the last series.

Brady says he would give the PM a courtesy 48 hours warning if he gets 48 letters, before he goes public

May has just said she hasn't heard from him.

Is she lying ?
is Brady too cheap to phone abroad ?
Have the ERG miscounted those 48 letters again ?
Did they send them by snail mail and forget the stamp ?

No surprise, but they can't even dig up a figleaf to cover her blushes:

news.sky.com/story/eu-leaders-rule-out-brexit-deal-changes-as-theresa-may-tour-continues-11578095

EU leaders have ruled out making any changes to the Brexit deal,
as Theresa May fights to salvage it from a likely defeat in parliament.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel insisted there was "no way" of re-opening negotiations on the agreement signed off last month in Brussels.

She added that efforts were being made to give reassurances to MPs who threatened to reject the deal in a vote supposed to be held on Tuesday.

Tom Newton Dunn
(2h)
Friends of Graham Brady say he is not yet in possession of 48 letters.

Nobody wants “reassurances”. Some want cast iron legal guarantees, others don’t want the backstop at all. Reassurances will serve nobody.

Christopher Hope @christopherhope
There is a narrow window of opportunity for Tory eurosceptics to strike - basically tomorrow morning - if they want to submit letters this week. It is unseemly to do it while she is out of the country. The PM is in the UK tomorrow til teatime then Dublin and Brussels til Friday.

Ross Kempsall @ rosskempsell
Erg source says talk of releasing their own list of 48 names to force process is ‘mad and made up’

RE publishing the list of names on the Graham Brady naughty list:

Andrea Jenkyns @andreajenkyns
Complete rubbish. I agree with @SteveBakerHW. This is clearly propaganda by the whips to get MPs to remove letters. I trust Jacob and the ERG more than the whips. @SamCoatesTimes

Graph showing that Leave was only important to about 6 % of people for many years,
until Cameron announced the ref and Leave managed to associate Brexit with the desire to stop immigration


Peter Foster@pmdfoster

This is really clever analysis.
it really is all Cameron fault for using the #brexit referendum to fix Tory Party.
And he should have tackled immigration side-effects directly, not via proxy.

James Patrick @j_amesp
The ERG are going to try and oust May because she is currently the only barrier between them and no deal.

She gets a lot of shit and she has issues, but Jesus she is holding a set of floodgates against raving nutters of all colours and we’re all stood watching like cunts.

Well that's one way of putting it...

As usual, the EU Commission and Parliament are keener to help than E27 leaders.


Donald Tusk@eucopresident

Long and frank discussion with PM @theresa_may ahead of #Brexit summit.
Clear that EU27 wants to help.
The question is how.

This is really clever analysis.
it really is all Cameron fault for using the #brexit referendum to fix Tory Party.
* And he should have tackled immigration side-effects directly, not via proxy.*

But:

1. All studies show the overall effect of EU immigration to be beneficial and vital.

1. May could have tackled immigration 'issues' first and then seen if the Will was still there to trigger Article 50.

View in Germany is that any change of leader would be for the worse, including the irrelevant Corbyn
Me too
It's not like Soubry has a chance

lonely Immigration is an emotional issue, so facts don't help
People don't listen to facts when they are emotional
Arron Banks said the mistake Remain made was to talk facts, while his lot talked emotions.

Merkel has already set a date for her departure. It seems the Germans approve.

we’re all stood watching like cunts.

Standing! We are standing like cunts.

*Facts don't help
*
I know BCF ...but they help me!

I sometimes think that in part the polarity in beliefs is attributable to the left brain/ right brain thinking thing.

So if there's another vote, campaigning should be all emotional with pictures of different peoples and families all smiling with
" You are, he is, she is, we are European " sort of thing.

Well you know you’re in the UK (well, England) when you have until teatime tomorrow to depose a crazed would-be dictator (and replace with someone even less savoury). Would the whole thing could be rained off, like a cricket match.

but noone is laughing at Merkel and she's still popular
Germany is still strong

Everyone's laughing at the UK, at May in particular

That's reality

Brexit has to be resolved soon, one way or another, because the UK's rep is being flushed down the toilet,
while the govt keeps pulling the chain

Robert Peston@Peston

Here is May's fall from grace nutshelled in the lies of her MPs:
a few weeks ago, those who put in letters pretended they hadn't;
now those who haven't put in letters are pretending they have.
"It's like families claiming their dads were in the resistance" says one Brexiter.
...
This is striking from @GeorgeFreemanMP
.He appears to be saying that @theresamay is over but that Tories have to find a way to replace her temporarily without a leadership election.
If you disagree with my interpretation George, do say!
...
George Freeman MP*@GeorgeFreemanMP*_

To any Colleagues thinking of signing their letter to Mr. Brady to trigger a Leadership Election, I beg you not to.
The country would never forgive us.
If the PM is out of runway, we should have a Caretaker Prime Minister until a Leadership Election in May.
...

1. IF, as now looks likely, the PM can’t secure her Withdrawal Agreement, I would urge her to take a cross-party approach & try and find a Brexit that could command a majority via cross-party support.

It’s clear there’s no single party majority for any of the current options. ...

1. If the PM is unable to move to a Plan B Brexit, she and the Cabinet should agree a Caretaker Prime Minister to open cross-party talks & pick up the negotiations to see if they can find a Brexit deal that could get through the House.

...

1. Constitutionally, the PM does not HAVE to be the Party Leader._

The Conservative Party needs to elect a new Leader AFTER Brexit Withdrawal has been decided. The Caretaker PM would be someone who would not stand - but who the Cabinet & 1922 would back to oversee Withdrawal.

James Patrickk@J*_amesp

I mean, genuinely, are there people who still believe the EU will renegotiate or deal with the U.K. on a 1 to 1 basis?

Very much looks to me like May is doing this humiliating public round to drive the point home to Westminster’s village of idiots because they just don’t listen.

Laura Kuenssberg@bbclaurak
1. I know, I know, I know that we have been here before, but senior tories are sounding more and more confident the threshold has been reached - more to the point a Remainer MP has just told me they will submit a letter too if there is not vote on deal by Christmas

2. At 3pm I was reliably told the numbers weren't there, but this has been moving v fast indeed - at 5.30pm the PM said she hadn't been told about threshold being reached

3. It's exactly the time now when MP s were meant to be starting to vote on the deal

Speak of the devil mrsr8

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-news-david-cameron-theresa-may-deal-vote-eu-referendum-parliament-commons-a8677586.html