Westminstenders: A vote too far?

[RedToothBrush]

The ECJ have ruled that the UK can unilaterally revoke A50.

There maybe lots of other news today, but that's the big one.

May has her big vote tomorrow. Or does she.

Will she survive until the end of the week?

@howabout , the backstop makes NI separate from the rest of the UK. I think SF see this as a step towards unification. Which is why the DUP are so afraid of it.
It's only a matter of time before nationalists will be in a majority in NI. Which raises an interesting question for Ireland which might have conflicting views about the reality of unification - my Irish Mum always said this. But that's for another day and another thread.

{Remember this is the Withdrawal Agreement only, not the future relationship which is yet to be negotiated.}

I think this important comment and not appreciating it is what is causing so much of the problem.
The government buggered about and did not draw up a suitable plan, so the EU negotiators worked this one. As far as I am aware using this as a 'middle of the road' starting point that allows civilised forward motion all is to 'play' for, although obviously the EU 'red lines' impacting on the 4 pillars cannot be crossed.
Of course the UK gov don't like it, as it has no cake included and on principle because they didn't write it. Similar to the backstop, it is necessary but the gov don't want it because they didn't write it so it's not 'sovereign' enough.
The answers to both is 'simple' in that proper negotiation is needed.

In other news, May can’t get out of her own car let alone the EU
Typical May. She wants to leave the car but retain all the benefits of staying inside it.

AFAIWA the backstop would probably go on forever because there's no technical solution to the NI border. You can't have a hard border but you cant "Xray" good in the back of lorries, you need to physically check them. NI and ROI will always have differing regulations EU Vs UK (after Brexit) so unless there's some sort of miracle, the backstop will go on for a long, long time.

Well maybe Leave supporters should have thought about NI a bit more when casting their vote. This is not a surprise.

Some months back I read a piece about a proposal put forward in the very early 1970's I think to 'fix' the problem in NI by 'removal' of one section of the population. I can't remember any details of who would be put somewhere else or how it would have been done. It was only a short leader that happened to be on the same page as some other article.
Actually, a similar thing has been proposed in parts of the Balkans to swap people around to produce 'Muslim' and 'Christian' areas rather than a mix. Not sure how that is going.

Here we go again....

Beth Rigby @bethrigby
Confidence vote watch. I know it’s a dangerous game to play and Sir Graham is keeper of the list. But my ERG sources pretty confident now that 48 trigger been breached. Of course Sir Graham won’t announce while PM out of country - and we’ve been here before. But mood hardening

And on this matter, the only one who knows is Sir Graham and he would never comment, not even to friends.....

Laura Kuennsberg@bbclaurak
Masses of speculation about the numbers going in - lots of people hoping the 48 has been reached, but not clear - ‘we’ll def have them by....’ - fill in the blanks - but as @BethRigby says, mood seems to be hardening towards PM for sure

And although it might be changing fast, was told pretty reliably an hour ago the level hadn’t been reached yet to trigger a vote

Francis Elliott @ elliotttimes
The effort to agree a single ERG-candidate in a leadership contest has no so far succeeded. Johnson, Raab and Davis all determined to test their support.

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
I'm told Graham Brady has NOT got an announcement to make about the 48 letters. #standdownbritain

Hugh Bennett @hughrbennett
One parl'y source says Graham Brady was seen going to the PM's office about an hour ago...

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn
Friends of Graham Brady say he is not yet in possession of 48 letters. Just under 8 hours left of this day to go though.

Kevin Schofield@polhomeeditor
Senior non-ERG Tory MP told me earlier they believed the Prime Minister will be "gone by Monday". Said several more letters of confidence had gone in since yesterday over Brexit vote fiasco. "She's seen to be acting in her interest, not the national interest," they said.

Alastair Stewart @ alstewitn
Mr @edvaizey, on claims Sir Graham Brady MP, Chair of the 1922 Committee, now has 48 letters calling for a Leadership election:
"In #ERG maths, 48 is probably 22".

It's no surprise at all bellinsurge.

Intelligent Leavers apparently assumed all along that the EU would break its own rules - and cause itself serious legal complications - to help a departing member,

However, one of the reasons for Brexit is apparently because the EU is so inflexible !

Anyway, who on earth, in a business deal, bets their whole future on the other side being willing to break the rules ?

@RedToothBrush - I love the concept of ERG Maths. Let's hope it's right.

I agree with prettybird while the SNP are not in support of Brexit let alone a hard Brexit and have been very clear about this I can think of little that is likely to advance their cause faster. I have reluctantly come round to their way of thinking over the last two years having been very opposed to it.
The intellectual part of me understands why NI is being treated differently with regards to Brexit to Scotland. The emotional toddler side feels that it is very unfair and the Scots are being punished for always being the well behaved dc.

{ the backstop will go on for a long, long time.}
As many possibilities can become realities during transition (assuming the WA gets agreed) it may be that there could be a general relaxation of the need but at the moment there is far too much 'steam' behind all of this. If it was just customs/tax revenue that would suffer it is likely that the EU would take a pragmatic view and one would hope the UK would too, but at the moment it seems that many in the UK can't even manage to understand some basics so that is a long way off.

And of course in the event of a no deal, the UK would probably have to implement a hard border because of WTO MFN rules and contravene an international peace treaty. Explained here..

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/07/18/does-the-wto-require-countries-to-control-their-borders/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

The ERG are part of the problem.
they showed their sheer incompetence before when they couldn't even manage 48 letters.
Let's see if they screw it up again.

I'm doubtful if MPs would even vote NC, because do they really fancy a leadership contest now
and the change of an ERG No Deal nutter as PM if they can't keep them out of the last 2.

change chance^

Hi @Mrsr8

Sam Coates Times @samcoatestimes
💥Nervous Tory MPs hearing rumours that the ERG - in order to force the pace of a leadership contest - may release the names of 48 MPs who have told them they've put in letters to Graham Brady. To smoke out liars. 💥
^>> Has trust amongst Tory MPs ever been so low?

I am trying to imagine the response of the EU if the Tories choose now to have a leadership contest!

Dan Hodges @ dpjhodges
48 Letters Rumours Latest: Cabinet minister texts to say they believe 48 letters will be in by Friday.

Oh has Gove sent one in because he was pissed off she'd told the EU that the vote was off before telling the Cabinet so he was busy telling the media it was still on...

Merkel has an approval rating as chancellor of 57% last time I looked.
She still has power, which is why May asking her for help

May is a laughing stock; Merkel is not

Try this little video

Of all the useful things the Tory party might come up with,
a leadership contest ?
Now ?

Rearranging those deckchairs again
Do I hear "Nearer my God to thee" in the background ?

The Tory party do a really good line in farce; I'll give them that.

"Yes Prime Minister" would have rejected all this Brexit saga as being too silly a plot even for TV

Intelligent Leavers

If such a beast exists, it's unlikely to have voted Leave, paradoxically. The moment it saw UKIP starting to get a semi, it would have worked out that discretion is the better part of valour, and quietly not voted.