Westminstenders: A vote too far?

[RedToothBrush]

The ECJ have ruled that the UK can unilaterally revoke A50.

There maybe lots of other news today, but that's the big one.

May has her big vote tomorrow. Or does she.

Will she survive until the end of the week?

Totally agree @TatianaLarina . A people's vote means No Deal would be an option. It absolutely can't be.

The rumour mill is saying the remaining 48 letters are on the way in. But there is a push to suspend parliament for Christmas early so they can't be actioned.

If that's true then it's a bloody disgrace and a blatant attempt to subvert the democratic process.

In other news, May can’t get out of her own car let alone the EU

metro.co.uk/2018/12/11/theresa-may-gets-locked-inside-car-tries-meet-angela-merkel-8231782/

That’s not to say it couldn’t happen, and I have never said that it wouldn’t, but I don’t think it’s the most likely outcome from Parliament.

Then we are probably in agreement to some extent. I don't believe it is the most likely outcome from an active choice being made by parliament. I do think the chances of if happening because they can't get their arses in gear to sort anything else out is rapidly increasing.

{What I don't understand is why the EU won't bend on interpretation of FoM}
I think that EU wide the issue of FoM and immigration by refugees needs looking at and tweaking, taken as a block, rather than individual countries. I was somewhere as suggestion by one of the Eastern countries wanting to repatriate it's younger workers with possibly a 5 year 'playing away' before coming back to their original country. I am not sure about that personally but it is an idea.
I have often said that Mrs Merkel did the right 'humanitarian' thing for refugees but that the EU as a whole have been too slow to turn it into a longer term plan and policy.

{If that's true then it's a bloody disgrace and a blatant attempt to subvert the democratic process.}
You mean like all the other twisting and turning rather than actually working on a plan?

@1tisILeClerc it's a pity we won't be contributing to that necessary debate. Perhaps our flouncing will precipitate the debate. That's all we would "contribute "

Indeed. I should have said 'another' blatant attempt to subvert the democratic process.

Why is Parliament so against the backstop? Is it giving up the right to unilaterally withdraw from it? Or is it that it treats NI as a separate entity from the rest of the UK? Would it being temporary get parliamentary backing?

Sorry again for the millions of questions, but I stepped away from paying attention to Brexit for a while and you people are very well informed.

@IsobelKarev I have no idea. Challenge people on here about it and they don't seem to get it.
We only get the backstop if we can't agree a trade agreement that works for NI. And then even if we activate the backstop no one will want to keep it if we subsequently sort out NI border.
But apparently it's all kinds of horrible handing everything immediately over to the EU because some posh boy in ERG says it is.

Some people on here are well informed, some are spinning a line.

The ERG (hard brexit conservatives) are against it because they want "No Deal" Brexit

The Democratic Unionists are against it because it treats NI differently from the rest of the UK. They appear willing to "die in a ditch" on this point, foolishly in my view.

Labour MPs aren't really opposed to the backstop at all. Most of them want "No Brexit" and are confecting opposition as a way to get to it. The Labour party also oppose the deal as a whole because they want to bring down the government, believing that they will replace it.
That's really all they care about.

The SNP are against it (I think) because it because it treats NI differently from the rest of the UK. In their case though it isn't that they don't want it for NI, but that they DO want such a situation for Scotland. In reality though, the SNP position, like the labour one, is a confection as they want to stop Brexit. Then they want to hold IndyRef2 and campaign for Scotland to leave the UK. That's all they really care about.

1tislClerc heartened that you say this re FoM.

Thanks, bellini! I'm trying to get a sense of what May is actually looking for from the EU in her "assurances" but as I'm not quite sure exactly what the problem is I can't figure it out. It seems that most of the political parties from NI actually want the backstop, which really isn't helping my understanding of why it is such a terrible thing.

Agree with all of that Louise except sitting on top of the pile is that the Backstop is the Trojan horse which prevents Brexit in any meaningful sense of the word while stripping the UK of all its rights as an EU Member.

All Parliamentarians, imo, are sane enough to see this. Very few point out the obvious nakedness of the situation because they all have ulterior motives, which you outline, for maintaining the facade.

Thanks Louise. So broadly speaking, everyone in parliament wants something different. And unsurprisingly May hasn't be able to meet everyone's conflicting desires. In that case, are there any possible concessions which could possibly placate enough MPs to get ANY agreement through parliament?

As I understand it, if the backstop kicks in then the UK stays in the Customs Union and Northern Ireland also stays in the Single Market in perpetuity or until something better comes along.

The objections are:

• treating NI differently to the rest of the UK
• Cannot sign up to independent trade deals
• Cannot get out of it without the agreement of the EU.
• We already know that there will be no trade agreement better than what's already been agreed so we'll be in it forever.
• We will have to follow all the EU rules and pay in, but we'll no longer have any say on what they are. We'll be rule takers, not rule makers.

You've answered yourself there really. But there is no guarantee of it being temporary.

@IsobelKarev , all parties except DUP want the backstop. NI voted Remain which means both Unionists and Nationalists In NI agreed with it. But in the GE, for demographic reasons, DUP got enough seats to offer to prop up the minority Tory Government.
The DUP hate the Good Friday Agreement which the backstop supports. They also hate Charles Darwin, abortion rights and equal marriage. That's the kind of loons they are.

All parties in NI, that is.

May is trying to get 'assurances' that the backstop won't ever be needed. She may get those assurances. But they won't mean anything because they won't be legally binding. The withdrawal agreement and backstop are legally binding. So what she's trying to do is to pull the wool over people's eyes so that they accept her deal against their better judgment.

@IsobelKarev

Yes, everyone wants different things which is why this is so difficult. Bellinisurge seems to be about right on how the "backstop" could actually operate.

Re getting a deal through.

The ERG hard Brexit folks are mostly irreconcilable. Some might back her rather than see the government fall, but not many.

The DUP, for all that I think they are wrong, are entrenched on this. When Arelene Foster says she ain't budging, she ain't budging.

I honestly think the best chance is for TM to try and tempt enough Labour MPs to back her deal. How she'd do that I don't really know, and if it's realistic I don't know either? Now? I really don't think so....when we get closer to "Deal or No Deal" time maybe she could pull it off.

It depends whether Labour want to bring the government down on the precipice of "No Deal" Brexit before March 2019. Or, if they'd rather vote the deal through, allow the government to survive, and then propose a different "future relationship" with the EU at a subsequent General Election by June 2022.

Remember this is the Withdrawal Agreement only, not the future relationship which is yet to be negotiated.

{1tislClerc heartened that you say this re FoM.}
Thanks.
It is a global issue and along with employment generally some intelligent readjustment is necessary. Finding some way to tame the ridiculously high 'salaries' and establish a decent standard of living ought to be a universal goal. It is obviously a bit 'unicorn like' but it wouldn't hurt to try. I would imagine very few want to be 'mega rich' as beyond a certain amount of wealth you can't do things with it that will satisfy you. Once you have a house, job and 'trinkets' and are comfortable and secure things change. Travelling to countries that are poor you will find people that have practically nothing and are concerned about where tomorrows meal might come from, but it does not necessarily mean they are not happy. Worried, yes.

bellinisurge SF want Irish reunification. In what sense does the Backstop further that aim? In reality the central parties in NI have very sadly been sidelined.

I wonder if most people are in fact Alliance minded but any time they vote that way either extreme gets in? The SNP used to suffer from this in Scotland right up until support for both Labour and the Tories collapsed, when they won a landslide.

Do you see any prospect of similar mechanism in NI given the degree of scunner with the Stormont stalemate?

Lovely picture of May and Merkel on BBC website. No idea why anyone is watching them. Both are Leaders in Name only.

Actually, I think if the SNP were really cynical, they wouldn't be standing in the way of a hard/No Deal Brexit, because the resulting shitstorm would be wonderful for making the case for Scotland to separate from FUKD . Indeed, I'm sure that Nicola is continuing lots of soft diplomacy with the E27 to facilitate a quick return either to EFTA or to the EU (since there isn't and never had been a "queue" per se - countries can join once they meet the criteria).

Unlike some of the other Scots on this board and elsewhere (pace Motheroffourdragons and my dh ), I can understand and sympathise with the reasoning that NI is a specialise case, given the history of civil war and that enforced partition

I do however think that the DUP are fucking hypocrites I'm so glad this site allows swearing as they're quite happy to have separate regulations when it suits them (eg "Irish" beef, not tainted with associate with BSE or Foot & Mouth, gay marriage or abortion )

But at the moment, being "reasonable" is doing wonders for Nicola's reputation (and Ian Blackford) amongst the English electorate and building understanding amongst the more thinking of them as to why many Scots are frustrated and fed up with being part of the UK and would prefer the opportunity for self-determination. (And they'd get more of a say and more "sovereignty", albeit ceding small elements of it, within the EU with QMV and a veto for certain issues than within the UK. )