Westminstenders: A vote too far?

[RedToothBrush]

The ECJ have ruled that the UK can unilaterally revoke A50.

There maybe lots of other news today, but that's the big one.

May has her big vote tomorrow. Or does she.

Will she survive until the end of the week?

Barclay essentially says that even if parliament vote to revoke A50, the government’s policy is they won’t revoke it, and a taunt that neither could Labour revoke it as their MPs were elected on a manifesto of honouring the referendum.

If this is the case then the only way round this would be for a general election and new manifestos are drawn up offering a second referendum or even revoking article 50

Even the HoC Twitter / staff are confused !

Totally new territory here,
where no previous PM was so irresponsible as to take us

Is it me or is she actually totally deranged?

JC wins emergency debate tomorrow.

Always Losing by 200 votes would weaken her too much, probably make a leadership contest inevitable.
May typically always fights to survive another day.

She is probably hoping she has a better chance to pass the WA in January / February,
maybe after the financial markets / Sterling / business slide due to panic about No Deal.

At least she can then put her original WA, without the problem of it having already been voted down

But that’s what I don’t understand why pull the vote if it didn’t go through - it would be embarrassing for her but this was equally as embarrassing because she admitted it wouldn’t have got through.

That's what I don't understand. They're talking about the vote going ahead in January or something. So she'll just have pissed off the entire country, and both sides still hate her deal so it's still likely to lose. And with the added embarrassment of today's drama.

Unless she genuinely intends to put it off until March 28 so MPs feel forced to support her deal to avoid chaos (but surely it would be too late to avoid some degree of chaos if it's not voted on until 24 hours before crash-out?).

Thankyou for the clarification
I feel really sorry for the lady and the trams 😂

Now can someone tell me what Corbyn specifically wants his debate tomorrow ?

Peter Foster@pmdfoster

Dear Lord. No-one will even believe a word this government says ever again. Everything is 100% true, until it is not.

Utterly witless. A plague on all the Houses.
...
Anthony Glees@AnthonyGlees

Very compelling, significant & depressing.
Even with a free trade deal from financial sector alone, 75k fewer jobs, £10bn tax loss, 59% loss of trade in some areas.

May is taking us to the cliff edge and dangling us over it now. Honestly I’m not sure my nerves can take any more of this. Im almost scared to watch the ten o’clock news in case some other nonsense unfolds...

I agree with others that overseas reporting of Brexit is often more reliable. Today the NYT taught me a new expression “ throwing a Hail Mary”
www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/12/10/world/europe/may-brexit-vote-deal-fail.html

For Brexiteers, there's only one route to no deal – get rid of Mrs May and call a general election

They obviously fear she has a plan Z on maybe 29 March in the morning - to revoke
But if they call a vote on nc in her leadership - and fail - she is safe for 12 more months.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/07/brexiteers-one-route-no-deal-get-rid-mrs-may-call-general/amp/?

I'd have thought just running down the clock was the obvious strategy for No Deal,
so the ERG obviously dont think she'll do that.

They fear she'll blink & Revoke - as she can do unilaterally and without the HoC too, right up until the end of 29 March

Some interesting new usernames on the Brexit threads recently. It's lovely to see new contributors engaging with politics

Daniel Kraemer
@dcakraemer
Here is
@lloyd_rm
grabbing the mace just now

mobile.twitter.com/dcakraemer/status/1072234234901860353

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
Goodness me - if you are in my nerd world this is a really, really big deal - like throwing your drink over all of your mates in the pub cos you don't like the tone of the conversation, and smashing all the glasses

May doesn’t want “No deal”
The HoC wants “No Brexit”
Corbyn wants “No May”
Each are only bothered about what they want.
No substantial changes will be made in the Withdrawal agreement I’m pretty sure of that, I’d be surprised if anything in it is changed at all. The political declaration might be changed or added to but I think May is fundamnentally right when she said “there is no deal without the backstop”

No Brexit, No Exit From Brexit, and Nobody’s in Charge

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/12/10/no-brexit-no-exit-from-brexit-and-nobodys-in-charge/amp/?

... For now at least, no one is at the steering wheel, the crew are mutinying, and the ship of state is on fire

< the 1st class passengers are due to be airlifted off, but the lesser classes are trapped below deck ... and there are few lifeboats >

Thanks for that, Lloyd Russell Moyle, what a prat you are!

I suspect that although the EU won't allow any changes to the WA now, if it makes it into a transition period a bit of wiggling that does not damage the 4 pillars of the EU it would be negotiated.
18 months or more of hard work to get the WA written and agreed by the EU27 can't possibly be rewritten at this stage.
Trouble is that there are far too many that are bone headed and feel that the UK is so superior to the rest of the EU. Emperors new clothes comes to mind.

I can't believe how many hours of parliament I've just watched. Never done that before in my life...

So what is the significance of the mace?

Faisal Islam@faisalislam
Brighton Kemptown @lloyd_rm grabs ceremonial mace in Commons chamber in protest at Government closing Brexit debate without a vote... a vote that we calculate would have seen 422 vote against 186 for (31 unknown, 11 non voting).

A min of 205 defeat if their numbers are right.

The three EU / A50 prerequisites for a WA have not changed since negotiations started:

• Settle past obligations, i.e. the exit bill

• Handle continuing obligations, i.e. the GFA, expats rights

• Outline future relationship, i.e. the future trade framework which A50 specifies is to be outlined only, also possibly the UK sharing agencies like EURATOM, agreements for flights, Galileo etc

ANY Brexit deal would require a transition period during which the actual trade deal is negotiated,
then put into legal text and approved by all parties.

The length of this transition has been ridiculously underestimated by the UK side for party political reasons:

Trade deals around the world take typically 5-15 years, but using an existing template from Barnier's famous step chart, could keep it within 5 years.
e.g. Customising the existing EEA / EFTA template and creating a 3rd pillar for the UK would take at least 3-4 years.

Beth Rigby @bethrigby
Sammy Wilson tells me DUP have been talking to Labour and they will support a censure motion in the PM/govt over the decision to pull the vote if one is laid. I wonder how many of her own backbenchers would too? Not a confidence vote for sure, but still a pretty stinging rebuke

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
Contempt and now censure?

UK constitution, you are spoiling us.

Wouldn't it be wonderful for the May government to achieve the hat-trick of losing motions of contempt, censure and then no confidence.

It would be awesome.

Errr only if you are into constitutional law. Every one else is just trying to figure out what the fuck is going on.

The mace is a sacred object. You are not supposed to touch it. Cos that's bad and wrong.

I remember Heseltine grabbing the mace decades ago, McDonnell several years ago

It doesn't happen often, because the Speaker would normally suspend the MP responsible for a week or so

We have a constitution built on the concept of shame. No one has any shame left in 2018.