Westministenders: Plan B on the back of a Contempt Envelope

[RedToothBrush]

You could say its been an eventful day in BrexitWorld!

1. The Advocate General's opinion (non-binding) is that a50 CAN be revocated unilaterally provided its in good faith (not done merely to extend the a50 period and is a settled commitment to stay in the EU. This is NOT the ECJ verdict. This is still due. The ECJ does occasionally disagree with the Advocate General, but this is rare. This is important and will affect how MPs view how they will vote next week in the Withdrawal Agreement vote.

2. IF the ECJ rule in this way it does not rule out the EU appealing the decision.

The logic of the AG argument largely centres on the point that if the UK is sovereign then it can unilaterally withdraw from international treaties so it must also be allowed to revoke that decision otherwise it's not sovereign. Its hard to see how the ECJ will be able to go against that opinion.

Politically that could make an appeal difficult for the EU. However there is also much to say the EU WILL appeal though, if only because of concerns about how the a50 process could be abused by other countries such as Poland or Hungary to effectively renegotiate their status in the block. This possibility should not be forgotten. The 'good faith' argument is a legal minefield given the UK's behaviour in the last two years, if someone did want to challenge an ECJ unilateral ruling.

3. The government lost two votes regarding contempt of parliament and not releasing the full legal advice on Brexit.

The first vote was for a government amendment which they lost by 4 votes - which has been claimed is down to the DUP voting with Labour instead of the government. The result was 311 to 307 votes.

The second vote was for the actual contempt motion itself. Again the government lost. The result was 311 to 293 - or 18 votes. So some Tory MPs abstained on this vote.

This marks the point where the government is officially a minority government and May no longer has a majority.

4. Dominic Grieve tabled a motion (hereby named Grieve III), which was essentially a re issuing of Grieve II - the motion that he had proposed previously, but had been talked out of my May, only for her to burn him shortly afterwards.

This motion was supported by the regular Remain Rebels as well a bunch of known (and not insignificant) May Loyalists.

The effect of the amendment is thought to create a situation where 'Accidental' No Deal is no longer a default position. Instead if no deal is reached, it throws power back to the HoC to advice the government what steps they should now take.

It does not rule out the possibility of No Deal. It is still possible. Its just a lot less likely to. Brexiteers are arguing that the vote is not legally binding (Technically its not and they are correct). This seems highly unlikely in practice (politically not an option - the vote is politically binding, if not legally) even if that is the case. See the referendum for legally v politicially binding and how that has worked out. But there is room for a mess here too.

There is certainly no majority for No Deal in the HoC.

Grieve III was won by 22 votes (321 to 299). Thus making this a SIGNIFICANT vote in more than one respect.

5. Prior to the Grieve III vote, there were rumours that May was set to lose Tuesday's WA vote by up to as much as 400 votes.

There was a lot of talk that the government were prepared to lose the vote, with a view to representing the deal at a later stage. The vote next week was about minimising the size of the defeat.

However this relied on May being in full control of the options for Plan B. Grieve III limits this somewhat and puts power in the hands of parliament. (Parliament has taken back control you see).

It does not direct the government as such but it makes it much more likely that Plan B will have to be Nick Boles suggestion for Norway, rather than May's version of Plan B and a simple re-presentation of her deal.

Of course, this is over simplified as the EU and the EEA ALSO would have to go for the Nick Boles plan. The suggestion is that Norway WOULD agree to it, PROVIDED we were fully committed to it for the long term. But its not just down to Norway.

6. All this might well focus minds ahead of next week's vote. There are now three forces at work a) Brexiteers fearing that the likelihood of remain or a soft brexit have gone up, thus potentially being more inclined to support May. (This doesn't appear to be happening) b) The overall chances of No Deal decreasing, thus soft leavers being happier to pursue the opportunity for a soft Brexit (Norway deal) rather than supporting May's deal - at least at this stage. c) The hope of remaining due to the AG verdict combined with Grieve III encouraging remainers to not back May's Deal as they no longer fear the possibility of Accidental No Deal.

It has been suggested that its possible that the government allowed themselves to be defeated on the contempt motion in order to woo the ERG. This seems a bit of a stretch, as May has repeatedly proved that she isn't this kind of genius and Cox would have to have agreed to be the sacrifical lamb for that.

7. The contempt of parliament motion now passes to the Parliamentary Privilege Committee to decide what punishment will be levelled on the government and Cox in particular. It is worth noting that at present, there are 7 on the committee; 3 Cons, 3 Lab and 1 SNP. Which you would suspect does not bode well for government.

8. There is STILL some arguement over which version of the legal advice the government will publish as a result of the contempt vote, and when it will publish it. In theory there could be another contempt vote if it fails to act in a way that the house is satisfied with.

9. The government are pretty pissed off at the Humble Address motions, and are now seeking to find ways to limit them.

10. There is some suggestion that something has happened that opens the door for the US to leave NATO. This would be hugely significant to Brexit. Keep your eyes on this.

11. When Cox spoke in the commons earlier this week, he made the point that Brexit means we are bound by the GFA to remain in the ECHR. And the ECHR also binds us to the GFA. Again significant, when talking about wanting to force a situation where we have Accidental No Deal, given the strength of feeling about wanting to leave the ECHR. If the Accidental No Deal door is closed, then this might also change ERG opinions as their motivition to have a hard Brexit is also reduced.

And of course the backstop is, to all intents and purposes, the GFA. It will be interesting to see how the backstop is framed in the full legal advice.

12. Going back to point 1, there are still obstacles to remaining. May and the Conservatives are HIGHLY unlikely to want to revoke because of the damage to the party.

There is some talk about who has the power to revoke; parliament or the PM. The overall problem is that the PM does not have the power to overturn Acts relating to Brexit which have been passed by the HoC, although the original a50 vote passed the power to enact a50 to the PM from the house - and presumably the reverse would also be true if the PM has the power of a50.

Thus to revoke - IF the ECJ say we can - it has to be passed by parliament. At this stage there is no parliamentary majority to remain. This, of course, could change. It depends on what the alternatives are - arguably the likilhood of remaining is perhaps higher if accidental brexit is possible and the only alternative. Otherwise a soft exit would seem more logical.

13. Corbyn's speech in the commons in response to May's presenting the Withdrawal Agreement sounds remarkably like continuity remain, to an extent that he has not previously gone.

Conclusion:
Overall, Grieve III is massively positive, purely from the point of view of avoiding No Deal.

Next week STILL gives the opportunity for MORE amendments which could create enormous problems though. The potential to end up in a situation with amendments which are positions which are diametrically opposed to each other or to the EU or the legal situation are huge. This would mark something of a crisis in its own right.

Its difficult to see where May goes from here. Her ability to force her deal though, rested on the leverage of the fear of No Deal / being in complete control of what Plan B was. Grieve III kills a lot of that, and combined with the preliminary opinion on revocation. Her only alternative is to go for Norway - like a lot of her Cabinet have already pushed for, but this would be a massive u-turn for her. The Times were speculating this morning that she will walk next week. But we've been here so many times before.

I suspect other posters and commentators will read all this differently to me (will be interesting to see how others view it) but this is my best shot at trying to make some sense of it all. I think the biggest bone of contention will be the balance of probability of the options out there.

PS: DO NOT forget the EU's own self interest which is consistently forgotten in the UK coverage and debate of the subject.The EU have no obligation to do a Norway deal. Nor to extend a50 if they do not see it being in their own interests to do so.

I wouldn't get hopes up too much just yet, but today does feel like a potential turning point. We have to get through next week though. I don't rule out anything at this point. All options are still possible and I wouldn't like to put money on anything. But a soft brexit or remaining are more tangible than they were at 7am this morning imho.

Feel free to take this all apart with your own analysis!

"Tory Leavers told BuzzFeed News that if she lost by a small margin, they would demand she goes back to Brussels and attempt to renegotiate the backstop arrangement." 🤯

WTF
When will Leavers finally get it - the RoI & the EU require a backstop that is a backstop, not an ornament

how about a ref with options a) no brexit b) remain?

Beth Rigby @BethRigby
NEW: Two cabinet sources tell me that at least four cabinet ministers - Gauke, Hammond, Clarke & Perry - have made it clear they could not support a move to No Deal. With Guake apparently saying as much in cabinet meeting (so it’s not just Brexiteers on resignation watch)

And so what flows from this? You have a parliament which won’t support No Deal and a government where cabinet ministers could resign enmasse if this is the route the PM tried to take? #MeaningfulVote #Brexit #dealornodeal

@Tobias_Ellwood also won’t support No Deal cos of 1) impact on our international credibility 2) it would jeopardise swathe of security/policing deals 3) wld cause ec mayhem by causing severe delays at borders/airports > how many more on payroll feel same?

Beth Rigby @BethRigby
NEW: Told in various comings & goings in Whitehall today, 7 senior Lab MPs met with a senior minister to stress that while or 80 so Lab MPs voted for Norway option in past, they won’t support that pivot now. Clear #PeoplesVote the only option they’d support

Nick Boles MP @NickBoles
The question is whether Labour MPs would support Norway Plus after a second referendum has been rejected in a Commons vote or if it becomes clear that neither the Labour frontbench nor the government will support it. That’s what counts.

Beth Rigby @BethRigby
This from Nick Boles on the private meeting between senior minister and seven Labour MPs, who insist that won’t support Norway because they want a People’s Vote (which doesn’t have a majority in HoC)

Also of note from earlier today:

Pippa Crerar @PippaCrerar
It seems that a number of cabinet ministers, thought to be soft Brexiteers, are currently attending a meeting at No 10. Not an official committee.

Chancellor Philip Hammond left the Brexit debate in the HoC chamber to join them.

Also chief whip Julian Smith, David Lidington, Michael Gove, Liam Fox, David Gauke, Amber Rudd, Karen Barclay, Julian Smith and Andrea Leadsom. What have they got in common? Soft Brexiters and in Gove's case a pragmatic one. But why Leadsom? Loyalty?

Karen BRADLEY obviously. You’ve got to think that Brexit Sec Steve Barclay would be there too.

James Forsyth @JGForsyth
Leadsom is leader of the House, and a lot of this is about what is possible within the procedures of the Commons

This of course could have been about the 'Backbench Backstop Amendment' too though.

This tweet seems to back that up.

Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor
Cabinet source suggests "they are floating options that might bring people over to back the deal". There's been precious little sign of that happening up until now

Nicholas Watt @nicholaswatt
Breaking: Sir Graham Brady tells me he would welcome the deferral by Theresa May of her #brexit meaningful vote unless she can provide clarity in coming days on how UK could leave the Northern Ireland backstop. Full interview on @BBCNewsnight

Sir Graham Brady, chairman of 1922 committee, told me: I think the most important thing is to have clarity about how we might remove ourselves from a backstop, Northern Ireland protocol situation if we were to enter into one in the future....

And more from Sir Graham: It’s having the answer to that question of substance that is most important, not the timing. So, if that question can be answered in the course of the next few days then all well and good....

Finally from Sir Graham: If it can’t then I certainly would welcome the vote being deferred until such time as we can answer that question.

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
Sir Graham Brady unhelpful for TM on Sky News
- Says the indefinite nature of the backstop "causes a lot of difficulty"
- Demands an end date end date or (unilateral) exit mechanism... which TM can't deliver
- Calls on her to pull vote if she doesn't comply, which she's resisting

And then of course the mysterious 'backbench' amendment has appeared AFTER Brady did interviews...

Brady's intervention has to be seen in the context of this too

Beth Rigby @BethRigby
NEW: Source tells me cabinet agreed they can’t lose a vote by 200, but certainly no agreement on pulling the vote. Told a bit of general dismay that PM didn’t fully put her cards on the table (but she never does)

Alex Wickham has been counting the number of Tory MPs who have publicly said they would not back May's Deal. Last I saw he was up to 102.

However 4 hours ago (BEFORE the appearance of the 'backbench amendment) he wrote this

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
No10 is divided on what to do if May's deal is killed next week. Some senior aides have discussed a second referendum, others have said they will have to go for a softer Brexit:
www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/may-team-second-referendum-soft-brexit
Theresa May’s Team Has Discussed A Second Referendum Or A Softer Brexit If Her Deal Is Killed Next Week

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
It's assumed that May could never back EEA because of her loathing of free movement. But some No10 aides think a softer Brexit is her only option. Whenever a second referendum is raised, “It is the only time she loses her temper and raises her voice"

Many think she has run out of road and could resign. A Remain cabinet minister planning for a leadership contest has made job offers to both prominent Remainers and Brexiteers. Leavers say she is toast if she tries a second ref or a softer deal

One No10 aide says they feel they will have to break promises to voters: “It has come to the point where you feel like you are in that Mitchell and Webb sketch when one of the Nazis looks at the other and asks, ‘Are we the baddies?’"

One of May’s closest aides told BuzzFeed News earlier this year that both he and the PM would resign rather than accept free movement

Some Tory Brexiteers are wavering, but not enough yet to save May's deal. In one private meeting this week, several hardliners echoed No10's lines on the risk of no Brexit. One Brexiteer expects May will lose by 30-40

Thats a big gap between Wickham's figure of 100. So why the big difference? Which is more accurate.

Also, that meeting of all the Cabinet ministers earlier today doesn't appear to have included May. Maybe I am reading too much into this but...

1. You've got the Chief Whip, running around with ITV, looking like deliberately crap at trying to persuade an MP who is NEVER going to back her deal.
2. You've got the chair of the 1922 committee suggesting she should pull the vote. Is he working FOR or AGAINST May?
3. You've got a group of Cabinet almost openly supporting Norway (which until the talk of the 7 senior Labour ministers appeared to be the only option which MIGHT get through the HoC)
4. A mysterious Cabinet meeting - without May.
5. A rumour that May would rather quit than accept FoM (which Norway would require to some degree).
6. A last minute 'backbench' amendment which looks meaningless in practice and frankly reeks of desparation.

Hmmm... just hmm...

Also

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
5pm NEW

LucidTalk poll suggests Northern Irish voters dislike DUP approach to Brexit
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c68d5be6-f976-11e8-83e5-4dc2d31f2a89
Poll suggests most Northern Ireland voters disagree with DUP on Brexit

Christopher Hope @christopherhope
Febrile atmosphere in Westminster over #Brexit today has been made a lost worse by O2 data problems in SW1 which means ... WhatsApp isn't working on spads', MPs' and journalists' phones. Panic is never far away.

Faisal Islam has a thread about the Kent CC Prep

twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1070757813692129285

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
NEW: Extraordinary Kent County Council No Deal Brexit document detailing “Operation Fennel” next month to hold 10,000 HGVs “on a routine basis”

-administration GCSEs/SATS
- waste services “delayed and disrupted”
- “difficulties with transport of the deceased”

On Sky News now..

Other hightlights include:

KCC planning for potential implications of No Deal Brexit - disruption to schools, school meals supply - disruption to vulnerable individuals shortages for key services such as social care - increase in number of migrants arriving in Kent incl unaccompanied asylum seeking kids

So Kent County Council will get workers to work from home or local libraries for 3-6 months to mitigate No Deal transport chaos

and

And confirmation here that Civil Contingencies Act - looks set to be invoked for Brexit - that KCC is asking for police powers to direct the lorries at least... raises question that No Deal might be declared an “emergency” or perhaps so if EU applies EU third country checks to UK

So Kent Council anticipate travel disruption for up to 6 months. Recommend that staff work from home and say that children may not be able to go to school.

Arlene Foster
‏*@DUPleader*

Arlene Foster Retweeted Laura Kuenssberg
Domestic legislative tinkering won’t cut it. The legally binding international Withdrawal Treaty would remain fundamentally flawed as evidenced by the Attorney General’s legal advice.Arlene Foster added,

And here's Arlene spelling out what utter bollocks the 'backbench' amendment really is

Arlene Foster @DUPleader
Domestic legislative tinkering won’t cut it. The legally binding international Withdrawal Treaty would remain fundamentally flawed as evidenced by the Attorney General’s legal advice.

Robert Peston @Peston
And here Is confirmation that DUP will not be persuaded to vote for @theresa_may’s Brexit deal by ANY amendments to the government’s motion! They will accept nothing less than a change of heart by EU and changes to Withdrawal Agreement

Robert Peston @Peston
DUP has rejected @HugoSwire’s amendment that would limit backstop to one year - because it would not alter the Withdrawal Agreement which it sees as superior and binding (rightly). So still no compromise in sight that would prevent crushing defeat for @theresa_may’s Brexit plan

Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell
Is it not bizarre that Downing Street has made so little effort to understand the DUP position on all this?

Downing Street are THAT desparate... and cloth eared.

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

I learned tonight that Theresa May can't now pull the meaningful vote even if she wants to, without MPs' consent.
Would need to win a new procedure motion... and it's unclear she would. 😂

Watching Theresa May just now on BBC news doing the Christmas tree etc. She looked very relaxed and almost happy, I wonder if it's because she's got a lovely holiday booked for the end of next week...??

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

Brexit crisis latest: 1. Mood hardening among Tory loyalists for May to resign next week if/when she loses meaningful vote.
One minister: “There is a feeling after Tuesday’s disaster that she has well and truly run out of road".

The Irish Border@BorderIrish

Its remarkable that we KEEP going round and round in the same circle.

The Backstop is not negotiable, because its the essence that protects the GFA - another international agreement we are signed up to, and are being held to keep.

The DUP will not support anything that resembles the backstop as they do not want to be seen as closer to Ireland than the UK and they think it might threaten their very existance. And to be blunt about it, they would love any opportunity to reck the GFA. They wouldn't mind a Norway option too much.

The ERG will not support anything that resembles the backstop because it protects our membership of the ECHR and stops their dream of being a tax haven and this freedom to set laws which are not terribly friendly to the vulnerable and poor in society. They spontaineously combust at the idea of Norway, with some prefering to remain rather than got Norweigan.

And it seem May will also spontaineously combust at the idea of Norway not because of the financial stuff but because she's a not so closet bigot with a chip on her shoulder against anyone who hasn't been in England for 600 years.

Two and a half years and we are still stuck on NI. Which no one though was important pre ref.

red I'm pretty sure we both mentioned the NI border quite a bit on these threads !

More politicians should read MN Westministendera, instead of just the threads about biscuits

Border sums up the feeling around those parts ...

The Irish Border@BorderIrish

Jean says to me the other day,
“well, Border, if you lived in the flat next door to a pyromaniac wouldn’t you put in a good sprinkler system as a backstop?”

Henry Zeffmann@hzeffman* (Times)

So what might happen next? It's complicated...

< AAARGH ! Can you follow this chart, red ? >

One minister: “There is a feeling after Tuesday’s disaster that she has well and truly run out of road".

Thats funny, because thats almost exactly what I said the other day about having no where left to go.

She doesn't. She either U turns or she walks/is pushed.

If she is no confidenced, then if I was a May loyalist / soft Brexiteer / remainer, even if I broadly supported her and feared the alternative, I think its at the point, where I'd feel I had no choice but to get rid of her, because keeping her would also be too risky if she isn't willing to back track. Too much of chance of being caught in a situation where SHE is the crisis and her lack of flexibility IS the problem, which leads us straight into No Deal anyway.

Yes I can follow that chart. Its really a lot more simple than it looks.

Basically, we are fucked as its stands, as the chances of those options of getting a solution are not great - for any of them - and May isn't really helping matters.

England for 600 years.

Out of curiosity, I looked her up on Ancestry. I've never seen such an English tree. And some branches go back to the 17th century. Actually, there was one Scottish line quite far back. But the rest was just Hampshire and Surrey.

LucidTalk NI poll for The Times

Poll suggests most Northern Ireland voters disagree with DUP on Brexit

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/poll-suggests-most-northern-ireland-voters-disagree-with-dup-on-brexit-fc57mbl6b

Northern Irish voters would prioritise close links to the European Union after Brexit even if Great Britain ends up with an arms-length arrangement, according to a poll for The Times that suggests unhappiness with the DUP approach.

The DUP, the largest political party in Ulster, has rejected Theresa May’s deal on the grounds that it could leave Northern Ireland with a special status, creating a border down the Irish Sea. They are threatening to end the confidence and supply agreement if the deal goes through and vote against the government in a confidence motion.

A LucidTalk poll for The Times reveals that 65 per cent of Northern Irish voters would welcome a Brexit that kept the province “closely tied to the EU, inside the single market and the customs union, while Britain has a more arms-length arrangement”.

Voters were evenly split over why, with 35 per cent saying they would prefer to be closer to Europe than Britain and 30 per cent saying their decision was based on resolving the difficult issue of the land border with Ireland.

The remaining 35 per cent say they oppose Northern Ireland remaining inside the customs union and single market, while Great Britain has a looser arrangement.
Of these, 29 per cent say put their choice down to a worry that it would be bad for the Northern Ireland economy, while 6 per cent cite the new border “threatening the union”.

The DUP opposes the deal predominantly on constitutional grounds.

The unionist community opposes Northern Ireland remaining closer to the EU than Great Britain by a margin of 2 to 1.
However this still means 31 per cent would be happy with an arrangement that effectively creates a border in the Irish Sea.

The LucidTalk poll explicitly suggested that a majority of Northern Irish voters were unhappy with the DUP.
Asked if the DUP tactics in the Brexit discussions and negotiations “have been correct”, 26 per cent agreed while 67 per cent disagreed.
Even 38 per cent of unionists disagreed with the DUP approach.

The poll, of 1,334 Northern Irish voters, was conducted online between November 30 and December 3.
The sample was adjusted to reflect 47 per cent of the NI population identifying as unionist and 42 per cent republican, with the rest identifying as neutral on the NI constitutional issue.

I can’t think of anyone decent to replace her though. Are any of the people in the running really solid enough to withstand the process? I wouldn’t be surprised if she did U-turn.

red My chief problem with the chart is I can't read it (visual disability and my usual App doesn't help)
but no surprise if it concludes we're fucked, fucked, or fucked

Oh btw...

Bill Browder @Billbrowder
BREAKING: The Channel Island of Jersey just passed their own version of the Magnitsky Act this afternoon. This could be very significant because of the £300 billion of assets held on the island

The version you posted, I think is a low resolution version. I couldn't read it either! I had to get the original and blow it up on my screen.

I don't think it was your eyes!

Yes, it says that there are road blocks everywhere, but May herself is perhaps the biggest one. If she goes, the routes to a solution - whatever that might be - are a lot more clear and doable.

Its in essence not much different to The Times withdrawing support for May via a flow chart to demostrate they believe that she is now the problem.

Let me see if this version is a better one which is readable (MN might reduce the size though)