Post Brexit forecast... How can we trust what experts say?

[mummmy2017]

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3902630/amp/Why-does-Bank-boss-Mark-Carney-getting-wrong.html

This guy got it wrong last time, how can we trust what he says?

Collaboration can happen outside the EU it's just not as good, not as effective and more bureaucratic to negotiate.

We are part of a strong successful team. The EU negotiators are significantly more skilled than their U.K. counterparts - as the May deal demonstrates. In the EU these people are on our side.

Why would you leave a successful team?

We can make new policy that works for our country and can encourage other people/countries to do the same.

Yes, we can, but for all Theresa May's fine words on the steps of Downing Street about wanting a country which works for everyone, and concern for the just about managing, I see absolutely no will from the present Government to make this happen. Partly because the Government is southern England centric, with 4 Cabinet ministers sitting for Surrey seats (until Gyimah resigned the other day), and no English Cabinet minister for any where further north than Staffordshire, so they really do not know how the other half live. Not that there isn't plenty of poverty in the south - east, but the poor tend not to vote Tory.

The Brexit supporters on the right and the left do not want a happy, cuddly "new policy".

Both extremes know that their will be turmoil, economic and then social. These extremes want this. They believe that out of a social and economic crisis a new world can be built.

Both sides want, poverty, social unrest and economic crisis. They believe during this crisis people will turn to populist leaders.

Think of Europe in the 1920s extremists thrive during economic crisis.

The middle ground isn't something to be ashamed of. Standing firm in the middle isn't weak. Centrist shouldn't be an insult. We need to stand together and help our allies not insult them and then run away.

Buteo, I don't know the proportion of people who would have considered nuclear policy. some will some won't. the underlying philosophy is the same - more control of what, how, when etc

The UK already has control of its nuclear policy - Euratom governs nuclear safety and security, not how much / where / when we use nuclear, other than we use it for what it’s declared to be used for.

I doubt many people even knew Euratom existed pre Referendum or why the UK has to leave it. I think there is a large amount of straw clutching going on here

we need to leave the EU before the planning really starts

Nowhere else in actual real life would anyone do something major without planning for it. That's madness.

I dont think people need to know what euratom is to vote to not be part of something they simply know is massive and difficult to affect change within or control. Ditto I dont think people need to know details of what life will be like afterwards. That'll just happen afterwards.

Actually I think people do make decisions, sometimes big ones, without any planning.

@blackcurrantjam

I'm not going to be drawn away from the point by a personal attack. I'm not here to insult anyone, yourself included.

You deliberately made it sound like you knew for certain that the majority of Brexit voters knew that the economy would suffer, and that they would be poorer.

I shall quote from your posts again:

“The majority of people who voted in 2016 want more autonomy and agency as a country in how we run the place. It's that simple. And that is not about being richer or poorer, it's about having a chance to be free. “

“The majority of the leave narrative pre-referendum was about having a say.”

You've now accepted that economics did form a part of the pre-referendum pro-Brexit discussion. Cool.

Now, your point is that the experts made this clear and people voted anyway.

The problem with that, is that the leave side of the argument which already promised people that we'd be richer, went on the characterise what those experts said as lies.

Or did I imagine the phrase "project fear"?

You now seem to be implying that nobody discounted the economic predictions at the time. That they were taken seriously, and people knew that they would be worse off.

You know that's not true.

Johnson, Farage, et al commanded enormous influence over leave voters thinking. They all told the nation that those experts were liars, at the same time as telling people that the nation would be better off financially.

To claim that everyone took the economic risks seriously, and decided they were worth it, is simply not true.

You can't claim that we had a rational discussion about the pros and cons, and that everyone in the country accepted the cons when they voted. It's just not true.

We were told that the cons were lies.

Moussemousse even if collaboration is harder, we can still do it. Indeed, perhaps itll crystallise where/what we really want or need to collaborate on.

Actually I think people do make decisions, sometimes big ones, without any planning.
Does it usually end well?

jm ur being too black and white. I haven't definitively said anything. I've said people were aware of risk and possibility, not definites as you have said twice now, and that I've done it deliberately lol, simply risk and possibility and voted how they voted anyway. Any clearer?

Talkinpeece have u ever read 'blink' ...really interesting book on exactly that point

blackcurrant
Acting without thinking is fine if only you are impacted
dragging 60 million unsuspecting souls with you changes the game

WHY
does the planning not start before Brexit?
WHY
did the planning not start in June 2016?
WHY
did the promoters of Brexit not have a plan over the previous 20 years ?

Well millions didn't vote... that is up to them
Millions voted a different way
So it's not quite one person dragging 60 million others with them is it lol

I know people who voted Leave even though they believed in the EU purely to spite "that bitch Sturgeon". They assumed that Remain would win and therefore wanted to make a protest vote against whatever the SNP was advocating I bet they feel a bit stupid now

That doesn't fit with your narrative blackcurrantjam of people deliberately voting Leave even though they knew they'd be worse off and that it was worth it. (Pity they didn't ask the young people who were the ones who were going to be really affected )

I don't know a single Leave voter who thinks/thought we would be worse off. At worst it would be like a short lived patch of bad weather which would pass. They think/thought.

@blackcurrantjam

You can't slither out of a lie, by saying that you didn't "definitively" say it. That's the realm of "alternative facts".

Once again, you said:

"when the experts say we'll be poorer and when they said in 2016 we'll be poorer, millions of people said we don't care, we will take the risk".

That's not what happened.

Leave voters were told by the people that they trusted that the economic risks were all lies.

They were also told the country would be richer by those same people (which you've acknowledged).

I'm not going to read posts which use mistruths to bolster their content and make it sound more authoritative, without pointing it out.

It's your own thinking that is black and white, as demonstrated by the quotes I pulled out.

You've generalised about what millions of people think, ignoring the wealth of variables that played into that, as they don't support what you believe.

jm, you can think as you like about me apparently slithering about and lying, that's up to you.

Again, people were 'told' things by experts and they chose to vote leave. I am saying most people - no doubt some took it all literally - were aware of the richer / poorer postulations on both sides and ignored them in favour of saying ok well either way, I dont like it, so I'm voting leave. The experts aren't that important to leave voters, particularly I would say economic ones. The leave vote was not about economics.

...nor was it about experts!

If it wasn't about economics, then you won't mind our economy being fucked up.

On the budget for 2016.. On the government's site, It says how much it costs per family and per household.
The way the it was posted a few comments before mine was worded to make it sound as if there was a net profit to giving employment to anyone who is here working from abroad....
Yet the truth is we all cost the government money, everyone of us, yet they are trying to spin it...
Trying to make out that everyone who arrives is a high earner, because it sound better...
Most of us would love a high paying job. That was my point.
Where have I ever said you have less rights to use the services, that I want you to leave the UK. People are telling you what they think I mean, but that is their own thoughts not mine, I have friends from all over the world, every colour and race, Brexit for me is not about them.
I just want us to leave the club...

Sorry but that is it.

mummmy2017

..and thats good, thats democracy but i don't want too, i reckon there is a (slim) chance we will not & that will be democracy too - decisions made by our elected representatives.

@blackcurrantjam

But you’ve already accepted that the most prominent leave backing personality constantly made claims of economic benefits.

Was the vote solely about economics? No. I never said that. I don’t think anyone else did.

But nor was economics a non-factor. It was one of many that fed into the result (unless you’re saying that what was publically said by Farage, Johnson etc played absolutely no part in persuading anyone to vote leave).

My home town is in one of the most staunch leave constituencies in the country, and I visit often.

I’ve had many discussions about the EU, over the last decade, with the people I know there. Every single one of them has complained about immigration, trade, wages, and general economic matters far, far, far more than they ever touched on democracy in those discussions.

That’s just my personal, anecdotal experience. It’s not proof of a general pattern. But nor is your opinion. It’s hubris to state otherwise.

I shan’t say anything else on the matter, I think we’ve both made our points and there’s enough here for readers of the thread to make up their own mind.

People who come here from abroad come into the UK having been educated and having had their healthcare paid for by their home government. They are likely to be young and not need much healthcare until they are older, and will contribute by paying taxes and buying things in the UK. People who are born here cost the government a lot before they are ready to start work and paying taxes. That's where the profit is - a worker from the EU in their early 20s starting work in the UK starts with a £0 balance in that regard. They don't need to be a higher earner to make a net contribution.

Someone who arrives at 18, then works until they retire and then retires in the UK will still have a better balance of debit/credit than a UK born person, having paid in the same number of years as that UK born person. Simple as that. The same applies to a young UK worker moving to work in another country, of course.

But if you just want out, that's your choice entirely.

I dont think people need to know what euratom is to vote to not be part of something they simply know is massive and difficult to affect change within or control.

Nope - you said people voted Leave for the UK to be able to change its nuclear policy, amongst other things. The fact that the UK’s nuclear policy is independent of Euratom shows your statement above to be nonsense.

You appear to be arguing that Leave voters just voted to Leave something that they had no understanding of how it operates or what it does or does not control (or even that it exists) just because of some vague notion of “taking back control” of the things that we could always control.

How come the leavers on here are not attacking the Remainers right to vote to stay, but we get it in the neck so much off you.
Hindsight is such a wonderful thing.
But how can all these things come as a shock to our government?
Why were the so called experts not screaming from every corner before the vote...
I do accept if remain had lead a better campaign we would never have won the vote, I counted the votes, I know the gasps we had as it became clear in my area just how big the big the majority to leave was as the night wore on.
I was convinced remain had it, as I sorted yes and no I was willing to go with remain as that was how the UK had voted, by the third time of sorting where we counted and they finally were stacked in lots of thousands about half way through the leave stack was getting father in front, the gap was widening in front of my eyes.
I then spent the night watching the TV. As bed called still it seemed remain would pull it out of the bag...
I can say it was with shock I saw the final count the next morning, happy but thinking OMG what happens now.
Still waiting too see once this vote is done... But still hoping leave means leave.